South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[khodds]

I'm a bit scared that it'll be a downgrade by the morning...

[AWD]

Don't forget, this is the raw NAE output we see. It does sometimes get modified by Exeter, as it has done a bit of late.

[windseeker]

Saturday 9am the east winds on 12z stop at cornwall now they stop out by ireland, big shift west

[Devondelight]

Would appear on the 18z GFS front does not get as far east and far south west stays colder

Great sign

[Iceberg]

Nae stalls it as well just a little later probably lots of moaning in the model thread now

[Bristawl Si]

Your going to Dartmouth on Friday so you got the best of both worlds here. Could be interesting down there for you.

Yeah, we don't want any further corrections westwards now. Taking this run at face value, it is fine. Lets hope come tomorrow, there have been no further corrections west.

Not for travel though - Haldon hill comes back into the equation on tonite's runs!

[dec10snow]

The site is very busy tonight & I think they turn a lot of the features off at peak times to keep it running

You can't see them anyway! I've posted this on the mobile site thread, as this would be good to have!

[khodds]

Can I ask.... What type of snow would we get? Horrible wet snow? Or nice and powder dry? Thank you!

[Joneseye]

For those less experienced members it's worth noting that the 18z is typically the least progressive of the GFS runs ie. farthest west and the 06Z the most progressive ie. farthest east. Don't be surprised to see a movement back east again by the morning and if you log on after 0900 then even farther east.

It's a shame we can't use the other models like the UKMO or ECM to give our will it snow or 7 day forecast on here. I am mindful they would only update twice daily.

[lfcdude]

Dont really want that shifting west anymore....

[jessandjon]

You can't see them anyway! I've posted this on the mobile site thread, as this would be good to have!

Yeah, we don't know where people are

[kernowman]

Love it to keep going westwards, could be in with a shout then.

[AWD]

Snowy morning commute everywhere except Cornwall and Minehead.

[swsnowlover]

I've just gone from deflated to elated in the space of 5 minutes!!!

[Lynxus]

Dont really want that shifting west anymore....

Agreed lol.. from a IMBY perspective. It needs to get a bit more east .

I can see it now..10 miles south and west it will be snowing.. here it will be sunny hahaha.

Im hoping what happens is a bit of middle ground ( Between GFS and ECM )

[EXETER]

If anyone's interested, Dartmoor webcam http://www.dartcom.co.uk/dartcam/index.php

And it's weather station http://www.dartcom.co.uk/weather/index.php

Probably old news to you lot though haha

[Joneseye]

Can I ask.... What type of snow would we get? Horrible wet snow? Or nice and powder dry? Thank you!

The air might not be cold or dry enough for powder snow. I am not sure what the threshold is for powder snow, but I'd imagine you need really cold uppers and surface temps like they get in North America

[jessandjon]

Snowy morning commute everywhere except Cornwall and Minehead.

OMG!!! I am under a pink bit, I had to zoom in a lot to make sure!!! Won't get too excited yet

[cerneman]

thinking my location will just be getting rain gutted ... have fun in the snow

HI, Winter only reached halfway point, Who would have thought few weeks ago would be facing these synoptics, Still time for more chances before winter over, Things shaping up for interesting second part Winter

[Sainsbo]

I can't seem to tell if the westward shift would mean an upgrade for our areas (NE regions of the SW), or a downgrade. Would anyone be able to enlighten me?

[Iceberg]

Gfs totals from that run are for a uniform 15cm across the region so quite a bit more for high ground and lucky areas

[DanDorsetUK]

Think this run should be taken with a pinch of salt really, This is a very big shift west, cant see it being as much as that myself, expect a correction in the morning back east more again, till we find the middle ground!

[chris55]

GFS snow accumulation chart for the 18z

[LeeB]

Well having stalked the model thread for a while. I'd like to post my thoughts. Unfortunately can't back this up with charts as mobile but...

In recent gfs runs the following seems to of occurred. The 0z places things west only for the 6 z to place them east and then both the 12z and 18z make further westward corrections.

Usually they say to bin the 18z unless it follows the trend, well currently the trend appears to be to correct westward and the 18z seems to follow this so may have some credit.

To sum up.

Although within the reliable time frame I would expect a possible further small shift west.

Please remember I am no expert in fact a complete n00b but just going on trends here.

Lee

[dec10snow]

I think this run would be an upgrade, from IMBY perspective! Bring it on!