South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[harta]

cant see much in this for south somerset, devon, cornwall or dorset.

[frozen bluebird]

Are we in for a 24 hour event in the Forest of Dean?

Windseeker - Im going for continued cold

[sherrie]

Hi, Going to be really down to the line, Forecasts cannot give exact locations even when precipitation starts falling, You may be plesently surprised,, Few miles either way and will make big difference when on edge of warning or forecast precipitation,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Good luck to us all, many of us will need that little bit extra luck

Yes you are right, just a case of what will be will be. It will be even more stressful tomorrow I guess, just hope for everyone that they get something exciting but stay safe as well.

[lookup]

Sorry sherrie, I may have slightly over-reacted BUT and this goes for other less experienced model readers and any wind up merchants, the atmosphere around our island is very fluid in nature. The very fact that your forecast suggests rain at t+30 hours or whatever is neither here nor there. The computer models (think data here, many millions of 0s and 1s) predictions will always be susceptible to change from the moment the model runs. When this particular event is within <t+6 hours, you can put more credence in its forecast (think guesswork). That last sentence applies even more so when predicting snowfall because there are least five atmospheric dynamics that need to come together.

Finally, based on your location, you will no doubt be aware, you have a higher chance of rainfall as opposed to snowfall, however I am certainly NOT ruling our such a scenario developing.

Once again, I apologise for my assumed harshness of the post I made earlier.

[124alex]

A little update for our friends to our South

The percipitation tonight seems to be easing Southwards, i was not expecting to see anything in Cardiff.

However we have pure snow in Cardiff Albeit light snow.

I would say if it makes it accross the Bristol Channel those the other side might get a little bit more due to the warm temperature of the water.

So hopefully you get something this evening. Started in Cardiff about 30 mins ago and yes its snow, not sleet and not melting

still snowing?

[windseeker]

Are we in for a 24 hour event in the Forest of Dean?

Windseeker - Im going for continued cold

I'd like to think so but it got it right when the others didn't back before Christmas, we need it to back track pretty dam quick, all the other will start to follow suit.

[Nights King]

Are we in for a 24 hour event in the Forest of Dean?

Windseeker - Im going for continued cold

Yes looks like you are in the "sweet spot" if your into snow.

I am guesing that the heavy ppn that goes north and stalls is roughly area that has warning so mendips and myself are on the very southern edge of that warning.. lets hope for a 5/10 mile south and west correction to be safe

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS 18z shift.

West or East?

Don't care. Not interested.

I'll await the 12z with much more added enjoyment.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[sherrie]

Sorry sherrie, I may have slightly over-reacted BUT and this goes for other less experienced model readers and any wind up merchants, the atmosphere around our island is very fluid in nature. The very fact that your forecast suggests rain at t+30 hours or whatever is neither here nor there. The computer models (think data here, many millions of 0s and 1s) predictions will always be susceptible to change from the moment the model runs. When this particular event is within <t+6 hours, you can put more credence in its forecast (think guesswork). That last sentence applies even more so when predicting snowfall because there are least five atmospheric dynamics that need to come together.

Finally, based on your location, you will no doubt be aware, you have a higher chance of rainfall as opposed to snowfall, however I am certainly NOT ruling our such a scenario developing.

Once again, I apologise for my assumed harshness of the post I made earlier.

Thats OK, thankyou

[chris55]

Are we in for a 24 hour event in the Forest of Dean?

Windseeker - Im going for continued cold

Forest of dean looks to be a "sweet spot" with the lowish ground to the south east ahead of the flow the Forest will pick up some of the heaviest falls IMO. Anywhere with SE facing elevation towards the north of the region looks most prone to more "significant totals", like 20cm+

[gottolovethisweather]

How long is a piece of string? I don't see how totals can possibly be predicted with the current set up. I am sure that if I am wrong I will be corrected.

Thats my line.

[karlos1983]

-0.0C & dew point -2 here

Edited January 16, 2013 by karlos1983

[Polar Bear]

Apart from a few days before Christmas, the end of a hideous working week that I find myself wishing I could fast forward a few hours and days.. To the next model run output. Not a good mindset to be in to wish your life away I agree as you should live every moment. I don't think I am the only one though surely? Can't wait til what tomorrow morning and the buzz ( hopefully ) tomorrow. Have learnt soo much already just from these few days reading the forum. No 1 is though read what is said on here by the regulars and the mods.

Here's to tomorrow ( yes I have been at the beer so apologies for the gushing) .. And seeing you all here whichever way the ppn falls to... The west or the east..

Pb.

Ps last time I looked Halfords had some salt grit bags in stock and sainsburys some snow shovels at about a fiver.

[Devondelight]

Is the precipitation moving south towards Devon likely to be snow? At all levels?

[Dean E]

Is the precipitation moving south towards Devon likely to be snow? At all levels?

I wouldn't set too much hope on the PPN moving over Wales currently, its a very weak system and is being killed by the Higher pressure in eastern areas. But will tend to be wintry Wouldn't rule out a dusting or two though! (very minimum)

SM

[chris55]

do not despair the misery upon us now is but the passing of warm fronts. some say that it can never happen, but i say have faith! u can trust mr fiddler!

Location in Sig (bit to the left of your post) would be cool.

[Nights King]

Is the precipitation moving south towards Devon likely to be snow? At all levels?

The forecast earlier suggested that it would be a wintry mix at low levels of rain/sleet mainly I think but some in wales are reporting snow to low levels so you never know.

Its very light indeed which will not help it to fall as snow to low levels.

[gottolovethisweather]

cant see much in this for south somerset, devon, cornwall or dorset.

Welcome aboard and time will tell.

Will you be as kind as to update your profile to show your location.

Many Thanks

gottolovethisweather

[djpaulbailey]

cant see much in this for south somerset, devon, cornwall or dorset.

What are you basing this statement on?

[124alex]

Temp: 0c Dewpoint: -1c

[georgiedre]

The forecast earlier suggested that it would be a wintry mix at low levels of rain/sleet mainly I think but some in wales are reporting snow to low levels so you never know.

Its very light indeed which will not help it to fall as snow to low levels.

most parts of wales reporting snow except for area aroung milford haven i believe..good sign for tomorrow. i hope

[windseeker]

eyes down for the gfs 18z

[DanDorsetUK]

Here we go folks gfs time! Sit back and enjoy the ride!

[frozen bluebird]

its a tad chilly. I need to get a thermometer.

[karlos1983]

The fact that the PPN is of snow in wales and that it is refusing to march SE in my eyes is a good thing!!