South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[twister2005]

How long are you down for snow? Even though It's light, some people are forecast 36 hours of snow, and I think that may cause some big accumulations too.

Very true just checked snow 6am fri till sunday !!!!

[Joneseye]

Please everyone, don't take the meto forecasts too seriously. They will change with every model run. We won't know the exact amounts/ times its going to snow until its knocking on our door tomorrow night.

Also note that the Netweather forecast also updates 4 times daily following the latest GFS run. I wouldn't take any automated forecast as gospel and switch to radar, satellite and lamp post watching in the run up to the event.... As well as hearing the reports from the good people of this regional forum

[dancing daisy]

Well Im on net weather regional forum so I looked up my forecasted weather on the net weather forcast, so the net weather local forecast isnt worth looking at then? I dont understand the need for sarcasm. Its not much better for my area on met area forecast either, Im on the coast. (sorry Im new I didnt highlight the right bit) the sarcasm was at me because I said net weather had me down for rain.

Although I am not speaking for GLTW in any way, shape or form, I am sure that he was in no way being rude as in nasty, just rude as in sarky fun. He means nothing by it, he's just an old man who likes birds and sarcasm.

Axbridge isn't that far away from me and we are expecting snow, I think it unlikely that you won't see any. I personally don't rate the NW snow forecast risk that much, the radar is a good investment at £3 (ish) for a month on NW extra. That is much more reliable in a shorter timeframe.

Because the models keep chopping and changing I am not sure that anyone will know anything until they look out of their windows and see snow.

[dec10snow]

The mod thread is very quiet!

[chris55]

Lets take a little look at how the UKMO high res deals with the set up as we head through the week.

At 24 hours we see a big mild sector heading towards the UK, you may think oh no,

But as we head towards midnight on Thursday the mild sector is shrinking as the Atlantic come up against the cold "wedge" to the east,

At 42 hours the mild sector has dissipated to the south and the ppn is moving into the entrenched cold air over the UK,

48 hours shows the front struggling against the cold air and beginning to undercut, snow for us,

At 60 hours, cold has not been beaten and the Atlantic attack whimpers and disrupts the the south,

At 72 hours we get the consequence of the trough digging south east, with a weak easterly flow and the cold air moving back West over much of the region.

Overall a great run!

[sherrie]

Thankyou Danceing Daisy

[Nights King]

Althought that ppn is very light in intensity I cannot help but think it is making progress towards us and you never know we could end up with a sugar coating in the morning to wet our apetite for the big shabang

courtesy of netweather.... won't do it often

edit Mine shows intensity

Edited January 16, 2013 by mullender83

[BristolBlizzard]

snow making its way to westcountry , cant post many these sorry netweather weather radar well worth getting .

edit mullender beat me to it lol.

Edited January 16, 2013 by bristol blizzard

[dancing daisy]

snow making its way to westcountry , cant post many these sorry netweather weather radar well worth getting .

edit mullender beat me to it lol.

Yours is prettier, change the precip Mullender

Will that big looking pink blob get us do you reckon?

[gottolovethisweather]

Why can I not send you any private messages? It won't let me send one?

Mull, its being looked into, thanks for making me aware of it.

[Wilxy]

GFS 18z shift.

West or East?

[khodds]

My boss lives in nailsea, I just text him to see. Can't see it being much tho

[karlos1983]

-5c here in oakdale too, and only scraped 2c mid afternoon, was 0c nearly all day. And the wind wont be coming from the SSW it will be coming in from the SSE/SE keeping us locked in the cold air and low dewpoints. dewpoints offshore at 1c at the highest for the whole period and 0 to-1 along the coastal areas. 850s supporting -4 from poole eastwards and retracting westwards again as the low undercuts. personally i can see an all snow event. temps predcted to be maxing out at 1c with SSE winds and -1c dewpoint, can only see this being snow, this side of weymouth anyway. This isnt a normal breakdown scenario where the winds are coming in from the SW therefore bringing in warmer dewpoints. The GFS, UKMO, NAE and fax charts support this, and that the winds will never stray from the SSE then coming back from the east later fri/into sunday. BBC forecasts/south today and points west show this support. POSSIBLY briefly turning to sleet along the mmediate coast for a small time later in the afternoon, but then turning back to snow again shortly after sunset as the winds start undercutting as the low slips SE.

Yeah, I know it's rubbish anyway, I've even on a ferry crossing from Portsmouth to St Malo and it snowed the entire way, blizzards in places, and yes it was a night crossing, and yes I was sad enough to stay up all night..

Didn't settle though......... :-)

Edited January 16, 2013 by karlos1983

[khodds]

GFS 18z shift.

West or East?

WEST PLEASE!

[fergieweather]

You would think so! Maybe just playing it safe atm?

No, following our UK4 products & other UKMO snow depth output. Not everywhere will see 24hrs worth: mostly parts of Glos.

[BristolBlizzard]

Yours is prettier, change the precip Mullender

Will that big looking pink blob get us do you reckon?

fingers crossed think you got better chance in somerset then bristol

[124alex]

No, following our UK4 products & other UKMO snow depth output. Not everywhere will see 24hrs worth: mostly parts of Glos.

How much is somerset expected to see?

Edited January 16, 2013 by 124alex

[Lynxus]

30 mins people!!!!

Oh please i hope this next run doesnt kill us off!

[dancing daisy]

How much is somerset expected to see?

How long is a piece of string? I don't see how totals can possibly be predicted with the current set up. I am sure that if I am wrong I will be corrected.

[cerneman]

feeling a bit sad Net weather doesnt even give me sleet just rain, like we havent seen enough of that . Going to have to read about it from all you lucky ones instead. Enjoy when it arrives.

Hi, Going to be really down to the line, Forecasts cannot give exact locations even when precipitation starts falling, You may be plesently surprised,, Few miles either way and will make big difference when on edge of warning or forecast precipitation,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Good luck to us all, many of us will need that little bit extra luck

[fergieweather]

Ps front splits Fri hence heaviest snow is AM with intensity easing into afternoon as it feeds away N. Coastal wIndward districts in S (e.g. Lyme Bay) an awkward raIn-sleet-snow mix really, but obviously no such marginality on N coasts (Bristol Channel).

[Jayfromcardiff]

Ps front splits Fri hence heaviest snow is AM with intensity easing into afternoon as it feeds away N. Coastal wIndward districts in S (e.g. Lyme Bay) an awkward raIn-sleet-snow mix really, but obviously no such marginality on N coasts (Bristol Channel).

What sort of totals are we looking at for Cardiff/Bristol Ian?

[pyrotech]

A little update for our friends to our South

The percipitation tonight seems to be easing Southwards, i was not expecting to see anything in Cardiff.

However we have pure snow in Cardiff Albeit light snow.

I would say if it makes it accross the Bristol Channel those the other side might get a little bit more due to the warm temperature of the water.

So hopefully you get something this evening. Started in Cardiff about 30 mins ago and yes its snow, not sleet and not melting

[windseeker]

This time tomorrow we should all know who will get a dumping and who will be gutted.

After the weekend into mid week what will happen, will GFS win with its milder outlook or will the other models win with there continued cold theme, place your bets now.....

Edited January 16, 2013 by windseeker

[gottolovethisweather]

Well Im on net weather regional forum so I looked up my forecasted weather on the net weather forcast, so the net weather local forecast isnt worth looking at then? I dont understand the need for sarcasm. Its not much better for my area on met area forecast either, Im on the coast. (sorry Im new I didnt highlight the right bit) the sarcasm was at me because I said net weather had me down for rain.

Sorry sherrie, I may have slightly over-reacted BUT and this goes for other less experienced model readers, the atmosphere around our island is very fluid in nature. The very fact that your forecast suggests rain at t+30 hours or whatever is neither here nor there. The computer models (think data here, many millions of 0s and 1s producing calculations) predictions will always be susceptible to change from the moment the model runs. When this particular event is within <t+6 hours, you can put more credence in its forecast (think guesswork). That last sentence applies even more so when predicting snowfall because there are least five atmospheric dynamics that need to come together.

Finally, based on your location, you will no doubt be aware, you have a higher chance of rainfall as opposed to snowfall, however I am certainly NOT ruling out a snowfall scenario developing.

Once again, I apologise for my assumed harshness of the post I made earlier.

Edited January 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather