South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[latitude]

Temps hit 5.5 IMBY today. (North Somerset)

I really really hope those drop off fast before any PPN arrives.

I can see the initial PPN causing the ground to get wet before the heavy PPN kicks in and hopefully temps drop.

It could be quite a slushy mess by midday, but I really hope not.

My temps have been one or two degrees higher than the BBC forecasts all week.

Last night should of dropped to -2 but only got down to +0.3 IMBY.

Im worried about the 2m Temps for this event. Im sure snow will fall but could take a while before anything settles away from cars, grass and roof tops.

Thats just my feeling, not from a model or chart. Just dont think it will be cold enough for the type of snow people are expecting (unless you live high up)

[Dave Kightley]

GFS= Poor for anyone south and west of the Mendips after 18.00. Need this to back west a little bit or it be slush by midnight sat

[Sainsbo]

Just seen the wetaher forecasts - Orange warnings extended much further south and much further west!

[Dave Kightley]

Nae is poor for most areas after 18.00 for most areas across Southern England

[124alex]

GFS= Poor for anyone south and west of the Mendips after 18.00. Need this to back west a little bit or it be slush by midnight sat

talk about putting a damper on things

[Mapantz]

Who cares what it's showing after the initial event? Let's get the snow first and then radar watch, there's not much point in worrying about something further down the road before anything has even fallen yet.

[Dave Kightley]

talk about putting a damper on things

NAE is good upto 18.00 GFS is poor esp low ground in the S.W. Won't last (WEST of mendips) on this runs. Sleet/ wet snow will melt the laying snow.

[snowphie]

If you live in Cornwall and are feeling a little depressed, get yourself to Rough Tor, MetO 5 day forecast shows light snow tonight and heavy snow tomorrow day....could be something to do with it being 546m asl

[Joker]

Who cares what it's showing after the initial event? Let's get the snow first and then radar watch, there's not much point in worrying about something further down the road before anything has even fallen yet.

Unfortunately, there is nothing worse than having a great roaring blizzard only to see it all washed away a day or two later!

[Polar Bear]

Starting to snow on m3 near junction 4. Cloud thick and looking west has started to develop that pink tinge. Doesn't surprise me ot wants to kick off early ...

[Bristawl Si]

NAE is good upto 18.00 GFS is poor esp low ground in the S.W. Won't last (WEST of mendips) on this runs. Sleet/ wet snow will melt the laying snow.

not much change then really from last 24 hours.

OK - time to forget charts - we're in 'watching what's happening right now outside the door' territory.

[liam300]

Why does it dramatically change after 6pm?

[Mapantz]

Unfortunately, there is nothing worse than having a great roaring blizzard only to see it all washed away a day or two later!

But worrying about it before the snow has arrived?

[Sainsbo]

Forgot to mention that It's been snowing for about 30 mins here. Only light, but still snow!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Sainsbo

[124alex]

can we spilt the south and southwest now?

[coxxy22]

so is that our front sitting out to the west ???

[Beast of Plympton]

NAE is good upto 18.00 GFS is poor esp low ground in the S.W. Won't last (WEST of mendips) on this runs. Sleet/ wet snow will melt the laying snow.

I guess this depends where you are in the southwest.

[Iceberg]

There is nothing progged to wash away any blizzards for the SW, at least not for 5 days or so..

GFS totals give nearly 20cm for parts of somerset, which goes to show that the sweet spot"red zone" is really anywhere in met moneys zone of destruction.

GFS also keeps the moderate to heavy snow for many areas for 6 hrs or so and then light snow, chances of other bits and pieces for a while after that.

GFS looks pretty good still for snow away from cornwall and low land devon.

[Lynxus]

There is nothing progged to wash away any blizzards for the SW, at least not for 5 days or so..

GFS totals give nearly 20cm for parts of somerset, which goes to show that the sweet spot"red zone" is really anywhere in met moneys zone of destruction.

GFS also keeps the moderate to heavy snow for many areas for 6 hrs or so and then light snow, chances of other bits and pieces for a while after that.

GFS looks pretty good still for snow away from cornwall and low land devon.

I agree, This whole "Washing it away " is rubbish.

Considering the NAE and GFS are still disagreeing as to where the heavy PPn / snow will be on Fri/Sat.. How can we even look at what happens next week.

/Sigh

[jtay]

can we spilt the south and southwest now?

We need you to tell us when the snow's coming.

[Beasterly]

There is nothing progged to wash away any blizzards for the SW, at least not for 5 days or so..

GFS totals give nearly 20cm for parts of somerset, which goes to show that the sweet spot"red zone" is really anywhere in met moneys zone of destruction.

GFS also keeps the moderate to heavy snow for many areas for 6 hrs or so and then light snow, chances of other bits and pieces for a while after that.

GFS looks pretty good still for snow away from cornwall and low land devon.

It seems like some areas might have a respite Friday evening before more snowfall in the midnight?

[Coast]

GFS looks pretty good still for snow away from cornwall and low land devon.

In fact - a corker for most!!

[EGHH]

Although it's a rather pointless game of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey trying to predict accumulations at this point, I've changed the colour scheme of the NAE snow accumulation chart for 6pm Friday to make it a bit clearer what it's actually showing - putrid colours maybe, but a lot easier to pick the shades out than the differing shades of pink!

Edit, just noticed that they say mm on the scale - that's actually cm.

Unfortunately, there is nothing worse than having a great roaring blizzard only to see it all washed away a day or two later!

Hmmm, you know, actually I can think of a few things...

Edited January 17, 2013 by EGHH

[Dave Kightley]

There is nothing progged to wash away any blizzards for the SW, at least not for 5 days or so..

GFS totals give nearly 20cm for parts of somerset, which goes to show that the sweet spot"red zone" is really anywhere in met moneys zone of destruction.

GFS also keeps the moderate to heavy snow for many areas for 6 hrs or so and then light snow, chances of other bits and pieces for a while after that.

GFS looks pretty good still for snow away from cornwall and low land devon.

It is a good run for snow. I just can see for a time tomorrow evening light wet ppn melting the laying snow. Nothing worse then Slush but as you saying it's great it snow a will come down to Radar watching..

My Dad is getting married tomorrow so i'd hope it last through tomorrow a least

[Coast]

So who thinks they are working Monday then???

Edited January 17, 2013 by Coast