North West England Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013

[liam79]

The band is literally knocking on the door of West Cheshire and the Wirral now (surely this band is further north and east than progged at present)?

yeh on the bbc graphics the band is well short of north wales coast at 8am

[wysiwyg]

I've looked and looked again on the MeteoGroup radar and the boundary of the front must be through Hawarden, and just a smidgen SW of the Dee Estaury.

The precip. on the leading edge seems to have intensified in the last hour filling in the gap between last night's mini front and the main band. Just over the Dee from the Wirral now - still time for the UKMET to be right but still looking very promising IMO for areas to the N and E. just how far N and E remains to be seen.

[cheshire cat]

Deffinately pushing further north and east, the track is steady, can't see how it won't hit south Mcr, doesn't seem to be pivoting

[macc2013]

What are peoples feelings on this now it is at our doorstep?

[UV-RAY]

I've looked and looked again on the MeteoGroup radar and the boundary of the front must be through Hawarden, and just a smidgen SW of the Dee Estaury.

Just checked it on mine and indeed it is.

[Brass_Monkeys]

Good morning

Currently 0.7 °C Dp -2.9 °C

There were a few flakes blowing in the wind at 6am. Looks like the front is making steady progress to the SW of the region. Fingers crossed it keeps moving

[Weather-history]

Also notice, echoes have developed in the Irish Sea, the gap between the main band and the Isle of Man seems to be filling in.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Weather-history

[MrSunshine]

Its almost there, come on do it for the snow starved Southern North West!

[snowdrifter]

Is this at all likely to push as far n as the Fylde? Sorry for the imby-ishness guys.

[martinj2]

Radio 5 weather man- 'NW will escape any snow'

[UV-RAY]

Also notice, echoes have developed in the Irish Sea the gap between the main band and the Isle of Man seems to filling in.

I think those further North could also see snow, not from the main band but from the above.

[wysiwyg]

What are peoples feelings on this now it is at our doorstep?

I'm sticking with the GFS predictions that the front will get much further N and E than the UKMET is suggesting. I'll temper this by saying it's purely based on my own opinion which in turn is based on the fact that the GFS has stubbornly stuck to its guns since last nights 00Z i.e. the 06Z 12Z 18Z and 00Z (latest) have all shown the same thing in the reliable T-24-36 Hour timeframe.

[Liam J]

The front is losing intensity all the time (as forecast) but should still provide some accumulations as it continues to track slowly northwards.

Light snow falling here but not amounting to much and it's bitterly cold in very strong ESE'ly winds.

[snowdrifter]

Also notice, echoes have developed in the Irish Sea, the gap between the main band and the Isle of Man seems to be filling in.

I like the sound of that.

[UV-RAY]

I'm sticking with the GFS predictions that the front will get much further N and E than the UKMET is suggesting. I'll temper this by saying it's purely based on my own opinion which in turn is based on the fact that the GFS has stubbornly stuck to its guns since last nights 00Z i.e. the 06Z 12Z 18Z and 00Z (latest) have all shown the same thing in the reliable T-24-36 Hour timeframe.

Yes the GFS as certainly been bullish regarding the Northern and Eastern extent of this.

[macc2013]

I'm sticking with the GFS predictions that the front will get much further N and E than the UKMET is suggesting. I'll temper this by saying it's purely based on my own opinion which in turn is based on the fact that the GFS has stubbornly stuck to its guns since last nights 00Z i.e. the 06Z 12Z 18Z and 00Z (latest) have all shown the same thing in the reliable T-24-36 Hour timeframe.

so in your view how many hours of Snow for South Cheshire(Macclesfield) to come today?

[carl1980]

Light snow here 0.8c seems to have dryed up abit outside

[Joe Bloggs]

06:30am MeteoGroup radar frame - the main front has now merged with last night's front

It is now straddling the Dee Estuary, and some moderate precipitation must be affecting Crewe by now I would have thought?

Very, very cautiously optimistic...

[chris78]

No hopeful this morn ...the track and loss of intensity don't look good good to me (Imby)

[martinj2]

dont stall baby........don't stall

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looking at the latest radar images the main band is from the SW - the GFS ppn chart shows a certain amount of less intensity as it approaches BUT the winds look SE which could force the main band into a more Northerly direction - light flurries still here near Wilpshire.

Ian

[Liam J]

Lets hope the GFS is correct bringing the snowfall over the whole of NW England today, the 00z would still produce blizzards later with snow starting here from 3pm and becoming heavier with gale force winds.

[Brass_Monkeys]

The front seems to be having a tough time making progress on the Irish side, like it's hit a wall below Belfast. The area over Wales however seems to be making steady progress. Is it possible that the area of LP that was expected to form over the Irish Sea has developed over Ireland and will slingshot the front over the NW region?

[wysiwyg]

so in your view how many hours of Snow for South Cheshire(Macclesfield) to come today?

Well according to the GFS 00Z the precip hits there between 9AM and midday and doesn't stop until after midnight. Therefore if the GFS is close you could be looking at approaching 12 hours of the stuff. It's a big IF though and it's probably mostly light stuff like last night with maybe some heavier bursts in there at times.

[MrSunshine]

I think its going to make it you know!