Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards

[welshwizard]

last couple of pics of the roof of my 4x4 this morn and i think it has got a bit more since but it was protected by my caravan so i doubt any would have been blown off.

[snowy36]

Snowing nicely but absolutely nothing on the radar. How strange:s

Same here, even though the worst is over the roads will be horrible tonight with all this blowing snow.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Just started to snow here again, can't see much on the radar though!

[Wales123098]

There's something dodgy going on. No precip on radar but sat shows lots of cloud heading this way and its snowing.

[keithlucky]

look here as i posted earlier , click on satellite there is something coming from the SW http://www.meteociel...o/satellite.php

Sometimes drizzle show up on other radar because pp so light.

[Wales123098]

The snow isn't that light, it's fairly moderate. Precip is intensifying and expanding on radar

[Baldy Snowman]

There's something dodgy going on. No precip on radar but sat shows lots of cloud heading this way and its snowing.

i agree

[Wales123098]

Wind is picking up too.

[Baldy Snowman]

this is starting to 'smell' a bit like 79/82 to me

anyone that old agree?

[Jackfrost]

The snow isn't that light, it's fairly moderate.

It must be localised to a few select places, there's nothing up here apart from constant snizzle! Can't deny that the mass of cloud looks like it would normally bring precipitation but I dunno, I can't see several radars missing a big chunk of incoming weather. I've never seen that happen before. I would absolutely love love love to be wrong.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Jackfrost

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Dunno I was only 6 Hours old in 1979 on the said date however that funny smell sorry about that peeps blame the local indian takeaway haha

[Ginkrots]

Light but icy pellets coming down in Newport, not quite sleet but not snow either? Similarly, radar shows zero precip over head lol.

[dyl232]

Still snowing a gd foot on the grass here with two foot drifts on some of walls sp haaaaapy :-)

[Buzz]

still a few days off but met office showing snow for monday and tuesday.will have to wait and see!

But this time, if the models are correct, it's central and eastern England that will get most of it.

[Baldy Snowman]

Dunno I was only 6 Hours old in 1979 on the said date however that funny smell sorry about that peeps blame the local indian takeaway haha

back in those days, going out for a play in the snow was like buying a lottery lucky dip, pre dog pick up days.

there's the smell!

[J10]

This is synoptic extract from the Alps blog.

Synoptic Charts

The charts shown are based on the GFS run of 12Hz on Friday 18th Jan.

There is Low Pressure over Northern Scandinavia and generally over the Northern latitudes, apart from a Surface High over Greenland (1024mb) with deep low pressure over. There is low pressure over Northern America and Iceland. There is low pressure over SE Europe and the Azores High is displaced further south than normal. There is High Pressure (1024mb) centred over Western Scandinavia feeding very cold Easterlies over the UK, Northern Europe including the Alps and Southern Scandinavia. Over Western parts of the UK there is a SE feed where the cold air has met a Atlantic front, this has led to heavy snow over many parts more especially over Southern and Western parts of the UK.

Sat 19 Jan

The Scandinavian High pressure moves slightly NW strengthening height to the North of the UK still bringing cold Easterly winds over the UK, parts of Northern Europe, and Northern parts of the Alps. The other change of note is a Low Pressure system to the North of the Azores moves Eastwards into France, and to the Eastern flank of this low pressure, there are SW winds feeding in some much milder weather for Western parts of the Alps.

Sun 20 Jan

High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, but with high pressure building towards Greenland, keeping very cold air over the UK and Scandinavia. Low Pressure over Eastern Scandinavia, Low pressure over the Atlantic, encroaching the UK from the west. The Azores high remains displaced to the south,. Low pressure over France feeding mild SW winds now over much of the Alps and into Mainland Northern Europe however a part of this system will move Eastwards towards SE England, giving some snow here.

Mon 21 Jan

High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, forming a block up towards Greenland, An area of Low Pressure from the Atlantic pushes over Southern and Western parts of the UK, giving another potential snow event for the UK, temps over the UK, now mixed out and this also applies for much of the Western mainland Europe. Low Pressure over Eastern Europe giving NE winds for Eastern parts of the Alps, however this looks a warm feed at this stage.

Tuesday 22 Jan

High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, still forms a block up towards Greenland, There is a main area of low pressure over the Atlantic with another offshoot close to the UK, this is set to give unsettled conditions over the UK and perhaps more snowfall. At this stage low pressure over central parts of Europe including the Alps with cool conditions here.

Wednesday 23 Jan into Friday 25 Jan

After this stage model disagreement again, it seems likely that the High Pressure over Scandinavia will dissipate, however the ECM tends to suggest there will still be cold air over much of Europe with low pressure and an Easterly feed, this would also keep things cold for the Alps. The GFS is more progressive in bringing the Atlantic in, this would mean milder SW winds for the UK by the Friday and slowly returning milder conditions over the Alps.

Again disagreement between the GFS and ECM (06Hz) - Last week the GFS was too progressive.

Forecast

Actual

I suspect it may be too progressive again. Although at some stage the Atlantic must make a return.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Jackone

[snefnug]

I reckon we must be touching on a foot of snow on the garden and our path. Still snowing - but lightly.

[Jackfrost]

But this time, if the models are correct, it's central and eastern England that will get most of it.

Not quite. Central and eastern England is expected to see snow on Sunday from a low moving out of France while Wales and southwest England could be in the path of two Atlantic systems moving in on Monday-Tuesday. Exciting times.

Oh, and regarding the mass of cloud being picked up on the radar, there's more shower activity developing off Pembrokeshire and across Devon and Cornwall. Whether it's related and whether it'll amount to anything I don't know.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Jackfrost

[Gavla]

skies full of it again and snowing, i just want more and more haha

[bradymk]

A thaw here durimg the day but still snow on the ground for many. Temp 0.3c, max today, 1.3c. Dry atm

[Gorky101]

i agree

Ties in very acurately with the 12z NAE which goes for light snow virtually non stop for another 24 hours accross the whole of the region

i agree

[snowy36]

The snow showers seem to be getting better organized on the met radar, perhaps afew snow showers around tonight.

[leehws]

No snow here in Colwyn Bay at all, although is currently -2. Very disappointing day

[RainyNWales]

Still snowing a gd foot on the grass here with two foot drifts on some of walls sp haaaaapy :-)

Its mental that you have that much and we have sod all, i have never been so disappointed in an event, i expected we wouldnt get much but what they were forecasting for days this is just a right smack in the face. Your one side of the mountains and we're the other, you get a foot of snow, we have 1 cm, lovely stuff, the snow shield has never been so effective

[J10]

Been outside and snow is starting to freeze, not that much has thawed today, but some snow has drifted.