South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18/01/13 16z ------>

[festivalking]

Only posted a coupleof times previously but wanted an idea of potential Monday/Tuesday snowfall for Devon and Cornwall.

It was frustrating yesterday as I live in Exeter and everywhere around Exeter got significant snowfall. in fact there seemed to be a 'snow shield' with a 5 mile radius around the city despite Exeter falling into the Met Ofiice 'Amber' area!

With the cold creeping further west over the weekend what is the likelihood of the lower levels of Devon and Cornwall seeing something significant? Please no more freezing cold rain!!

This link would make me think we are in with a chance!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Nights King]

Better chance than you had on friday. Note the pink section which you fall nicely into, cold uppers looking better.

Could be a fun day for you!!

Have not had time to check models much with it being a busy day adjusting to old age. So is this front likely to move further up into the westcountry at all?

[festivalking]

Better chance than you had on friday. Note the pink section which you fall nicely into, cold uppers looking better.

Could be a fun day for you!!

What ho! Looking good for monday all round. Was up peak hill early this morning. Hardly any snow left up there! Top up required

[AWD]

Better chance than you had on friday. Note the pink section which you fall nicely into, cold uppers looking better.

Could be a fun day for you!!

12z NAE out now mate, slows it down a bit, but signal for snow for Cornwall & Devon still there;

48 hour chart hopefully more conclusive. Saying that, going off this chart suggests it struggles to continue NE;

Edited January 19, 2013 by AWD

[Sainsbo]

Dad decided to get in on the fun and make a snowman..

[Argyle1980]

12z NAE out now mate, slows it down a bit, but signal for snow for Cornwall & Devon still there;

48 hour chart hopefully more conclusive. Saying that, going off this chart suggests it struggles to continue NE;

looking better for us in cornwall

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep NAE12Z taking the snow even further West to about St Ives Eastwards.

[AWD]

looking better for us in cornwall

Yup, 48 hours;

[festivalking]

12z NAE out now mate, slows it down a bit, but signal for snow for Cornwall & Devon still there;

48 hour chart hopefully more conclusive. Saying that, going off this chart suggests it struggles to continue NE;

lets hope it does not slide away to far west and south. With the progged low uppers for the first time this winter it would be a waist if there was no moisture around

[SnowChance24]

Thanks for the replies. Hopefully it won't come down to a marginal situation and freezing cold rain again. If I only lived higher up!

[Beast of Plympton]

Have not had time to check models much with it being a busy day adjusting to old age. So is this front likely to move further up into the westcountry at all?

With the looks of the NAE it has slowed a little so not sure... but then it could upgrade!!

12z NAE out now mate, slows it down a bit, but signal for snow for Cornwall & Devon still there;

48 hour chart hopefully more conclusive. Saying that, going off this chart suggests it struggles to continue NE;

Just noticed that A.W.D, however t+48 still looking reasonable.

Still time for an upgrade though.

[Joe Levy]

Thanks for the replies. Hopefully it won't come down to a marginal situation and freezing cold rain again. If I only lived higher up!

I share your irritation at yesterday's weather - I am at the university and whilst the top of the campus did see a small amount of settling snow, at the bottom we saw none! The most irritating thing is that I can clearly see snow up behind Exwick wood, as if the weather is deliberately trying to spite us!! Fingers crossed for monday and tuesday!

[AWD]

The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, some very cold uppers progged by the NAE;

As long as the air is cold, snow is always a possibility.

[Beast of Plympton]

What ho! Looking good for monday all round. Was up peak hill early this morning. Hardly any snow left up there! Top up required

Slight donwgrade but looking reasonable. A fair amount of the snow has been wlak in or sledged down now so clearing a little now... There is still the odd sacred areas that people don't know!!

[SnowChance24]

Slight donwgrade but looking reasonable. A fair amount of the snow has been wlak in or sledged down now so clearing a little now... There is still the odd sacred areas that people don't know!!

Is it not coming as far inland now?

[festivalking]

Slight donwgrade but looking reasonable. A fair amount of the snow has been wlak in or sledged down now so clearing a little now... There is still the odd sacred areas that people don't know!!

Must be the reason why the road from dousland to the life centre is stationary! Noted the downgrade but these things change on every run. Surely the south west moors are favourable as any light ppn will just bump into the moors and hopefully hang around, heres hoping anyway

Edited January 19, 2013 by festivalking

[Andy Bown]

The lack of severe frost before the snow means that the ground wasn't frozen cold enough to prevent a slow thaw, such a thaw has been

in progress in Warminster today, however still a fine blanket of 3 to 4 inches everywhere! And for the first time in a very long time there

are icicles - I love icicles!!

There's been the odd flake/grain blowing in the breeze from the leaden grey sky and the maximum today has been 0.2c which has edged

down to 0.1c now, I would love the cloud to clear to see how low the temperature could get, however that seems very unlikely.

[stevofunnelcl]

That's the awful thing, it all gets tramped on, and turned to slush before a decent cover is established

When out and about, i walked for miles, and eventually found a stretch of undisturbed, untramped snow. Total bliss, with crunching sounds

So, i enjoyed being the first to trample in it, and watch my footprints filling back in, right afterwards

[AWD]

Looking at this chart shows more clearly the PPN situation;

There is a weak front over Cornwall and South Devon. This is slow moving, so although weak, it could provide some decent snowfall for the areas yet to have any still.

Then look to the far SW, a rather more potent front coming into view. That could be interesting and may explain why the Meto have just updated my App to show a period of heavy snow on Tuesday;

[kernowman]

Better chance than you had on friday. Note the pink section which you fall nicely into, cold uppers looking better.

Could be a fun day for you!!

This does look more promising, but I am still in the part of Cornwall that is forecast with rain from that. Be typical that I'll be in the only part of the country not to get any snow from this winter spell.

[jtay]

Awesome days sledging down the hill in my sig (Clearbury Ring) with friends and their kids. It's only 140 metres ASL, but the South East side must have had a good 6 inches up there. Totally undisturbed as nobody else can be bothered to walk up there.

Sadly no photos, as we were all going too fast.

[SnowChance24]

Anyone know how large a town/city has to be to create an Urban Heat Island?

[Beast of Plympton]

Is it not coming as far inland now?

Yeah, still over you in this run, just not as intense. Just bare in mind that this is an indication and fronts from the west mixing with cold air doesn't happen often, so can be hard to forecast. You may get more than you bargained for, or less. Nowcasting will be in session!!

[Beast of Plympton]

Must be the reason why the road from dousland to the life centre is stationary! Noted the downgrade but these things change on every run. Surely the south west moors are favourable as any light ppn will just bump into the moors and hopefully hang around, heres hoping anyway

Definitely, also the moors have a lot of moisture on them so this can also help. Is it really going back that far??!! Thats about 6 miles!! Your kidding right??!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Gfs 12z a further upgrade for Cornwall tomorrow night/Monday.