South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18/01/13 16z ------>

[Andy Bown]

Latest charts looking rubbish for those of us in frome , westbury, warminster and devizes, both lows miss us, the one on sunday and mondays low, maybe tuesday??

Who cares? We had 4 to 6 inches yesterday!!

[Erbyskerby]

Is that a minor ramp then AWD?!!!!!.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Erbyskerby

[AWD]

Looking great but why are met office forecasting 5c on Tuesday?

Notice in my post I said snow for most. The exception being, taking the above charts at face value only, Cornwall, low ground in Devon and southern coastal areas. Here it will be the wrong side of marginal, purely taking the charts at face value.

Things like this can easily change though.

You can see below what I mean;

Edited January 19, 2013 by AWD

[BristolBlizzard]

UKMO shows Mondays front over Cornwall to be a bit more widespread, also affecting much of Devon, South Somerset and West Dorset;

Nothing marginal about this either;

And then BOOM!!!!

HEAVY SNOW across much of the South and South west;

And it will be snow for most;

Bring it on!

Be interesting to see if they mention this in the forecast tonight, or even hint at the potential of snow on Tuesday.

[Beast of Plympton]

Looking great but why are met office forecasting 5c on Tuesday?

Met office website has a time lag in their forecast. Look in a couple of hours and it should be different.

[AWD]

Is that a minor ramp then AWD?!!!!!.

I don't ramp, I just express excitement in rather pleasing model output charts! :p

[swsnowlover]

It's been a really raw day here (Ashwater). Temperature has not risen above zero all day. Just went to get some coal in and there's the odd very tiny flake of snow falling. Hoping for a good dumping of the white stuff at the start of the week.

Oh and Happy Birthday Mullender!

[Erbyskerby]

Pink on the radar over North Devon coast at the mo - any reports?

I'm assuming the radar picks up what is in the air - which is not necessarily what will make it to the ground. Is that correct? Still so much to learn!

[Snowfan50]

Just come back from west exmoor, some great snow and drifts up there, crazy how just going up a little higher and its all snow.

[Iceberg]

Light snow just about settling

Fantastic meto

Slightly disappointing gfs but rns will be needed

[AWD]

Light snow just about settling

Fantastic meto

Slightly disappointing gfs but rns will be needed

UKMO has been pretty good of late, so the fact that shows good potential next week is fine by me, GFS will catch up.

Obviously, if the ECM disagrees too, then perhaps a rethink is needed, but hopefully the ECM will follow the UKMO and we will be counting down to round 2 soon.

[Buzz]

UKMO shows Mondays front over Cornwall to be a bit more widespread, also affecting much of Devon, South Somerset and West Dorset;

Nothing marginal about this either;

And then BOOM!!!!

HEAVY SNOW across much of the South and South west;

And it will be snow for most;

Bring it on!

As also mentioned by TEITS in the model thread, I'd advise caution there - the wind will be coming from the south west and, despite the low uppers, the lower air will be warmed up a little. Some people on high ground and inland might do okay, but anyone on the SW and Wales coasts won't be so lucky I fear.

Still, we'll see - it's three days away yet and things will no doubt not pan out as the models show - just be careful of anticipating snow when the wind is flowing from the south west, even though the uppers are low.

[gottolovethisweather]

2nd ice day in a row, well cool

Never happens in Dorset, I want PROOF.

[Olly]

Pink on the radar over North Devon coast at the mo - any reports?

I'm assuming the radar picks up what is in the air - which is not necessarily what will make it to the ground. Is that correct? Still so much to learn!

Nothing here yet, will let you know if it does!

[Andy hoyland]

UKMO has been pretty good of late, so the fact that shows good potential next week is fine by me, GFS will catch up.

Obviously, if the ECM disagrees too, then perhaps a rethink is needed, but hopefully the ECM will follow the UKMO and we will be counting down to round 2 soon.

When is the next ECM update?

[liam300]

As also mentioned by TEITS in the model thread, I'd advise caution there - the wind will be coming from the south west and, despite the low uppers, the lower air will be warmed up a little. Some people on high ground and inland might do okay, but anyone on the SW and Wales coasts won't be so lucky I fear.

Still, we'll see - it's three days away yet and things will no doubt not pan out as the models show - just be careful of anticipating snow when the wind is flowing from the south west, even though the uppers are low.

Fingers crossed for the winds to change to an easterly.

[Karl83]

UKMO shows Mondays front over Cornwall to be a bit more widespread, also affecting much of Devon, South Somerset and West Dorset;

Nothing marginal about this either;

And then BOOM!!!!

HEAVY SNOW across much of the South and South west;

And it will be snow for most;

Bring it on!

Excellent post and excellent news. Thanks as always.

[Beast of Plympton]

When is the next ECM update?

I think its 6 or 6.30 tonight?

[Dorsetbred]

Never happens in Dorset, I want PROOF.

Then try this for size!

[kent]

For those interested there is a documentary on BBC2 at 5,30 about the winter of 1962-1963. I was a teenager at the time and had just begun driving. The feature i remember most was apart from the incredible amounts of snow was the fact that the snow ploughs were out so often to keep the roads clear and with continuous freezing conditions the snow banks each side of the road reached such a height you were literally driving through tunnels of snow and became disorientated. Not the best time to be on the road as a novice lol. For all you younger snow lovers watch it and weep.

[Andy hoyland]

Thank you kindly! Just hope the potential for Tuesday unfolds for us down in Poole. Concerned that the dew points won't below enough though? Please anyone convince me otherwise if you can.

[cerneman]

Never happens in Dorset, I want PROOF.

Kids enjoying sledging this evening, In Icy cold Dorset,,,,,,,,,

[Dorsetbred]

Thank you kindly! Just hope the potential for Tuesday unfolds for us down in Poole. Concerned that the dew points won't below enough though? Please anyone convince me otherwise if you can.

Sorry I dont think I can do that

[liam300]

Anybody got a good links for the dew points? Predicted?

[Buzz]

I think we will need a fast turnaround to see the atlantic return swerved away from the UK- It has happened this week & so it could happen again- however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-

A few days of snow here & there...

S

Deja Vu?