Scotland Regional Discussion - Friday 18th >>

[A Winter's Tale]

It really has been a pretty exceptional day across the British Isles - possibly the most significant and eventful day since 2010 and isn't nice to see the north sea snow machine up and running and delivering plenty of goods and excitement (and catcing the met office out as per usual). I suppose at this rate anything could happen during the next 48hrs.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It seems like it's been a super event further east and has brought memories of 2010 with it. What is your thoughts about the snow overnight and during the weekend? Can Glasgow expect to see any lying snow?

If any of that band reaches you, which is a decent possibility, you should get a bit. The Norwegians seem to think so, and who am I to quibble with them. It appears to have been a joint success between them and the NMM, with the latter showing the streamer more clearly and the former nailing the timings very well.

The positive for us is that it, along with the UKMO, points to a very nearly all snow event on Monday, with potential for another 10-15cm widely.

[Northernlights]

Last word from me heavy snow shower on just now, very windy, snow blowing about, getting quite white outside now and currently 0c

[A Winter's Tale]

If any of that band reaches you, which is a decent possibility, you should get a bit. The Norwegians seem to think so, and who am I to quibble with them. It appears to have been a joint success between them and the NMM, with the latter showing the streamer more clearly and the former nailing the timings very well.

The positive for us is that it, along with the UKMO, points to a very nearly all snow event on Monday, with potential for another 10-15cm widely.

Haha. Monday certainly will be interesting, I think it's destined to snow as I have my first prelim during the morning. I'm currently in Bearsden but I hope that band will move further west but I'm a bit worried that that the band isn't gaining as much precipitation off the coast of NE England.

[Guest]

If any of that band reaches you, which is a decent possibility, you should get a bit. The Norwegians seem to think so, and who am I to quibble with them. It appears to have been a joint success between them and the NMM, with the latter showing the streamer more clearly and the former nailing the timings very well.

The positive for us is that it, along with the UKMO, points to a very nearly all snow event on Monday, with potential for another 10-15cm widely.

Even if there is no snow here between now and Monday (which is possible) it is unlikely that much of the snow on the ground will melt; so we could have a foot of snow by Monday night? Plus Monday is not forecast to be the end of this, at the moment!

You made a comment earlier about some places ending up with feet of snow...it may well not happen but I would not bet against such an outcome for somewhere in Scotland.

[Hairy Celt]

Last word from me heavy snow shower on just now, very windy, snow blowing about, getting quite white outside now and currently 0c

Eh, blow it west a bit please. Barely a flake here still.

[Sunny Leith]

Double luck here in Leith tonight. not just getting on the end of that squall streamer thing. But after praying all day for the synoptic flow to go north of east, in fact the current just south of east has given us a bit of protection from being right on the coast. Seeing 2c and 3c further up the east coast where that SE onshore wind looks pretty aggressive. Things can and probably will change, but for now we seem to be in relative shelter in the short-term

Don't know how the uppers are looking but I'm assuming not quite as good as they were in the 2010 easterly.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Even if there is no snow here between now and Monday (which is possible) it is unlikely that much of the snow on the ground will melt; so we could have a foot of snow by Monday night? Plus Monday is not forecast to be the end of this, at the moment!

You made a comment earlier about some places ending up with feet of snow...it may well not happen but I would not bet against such an outcome for somewhere in Scotland.

I think that may have been a mix of snow and alcohol talking, but right enough, even by Sunday bits of the Borders could have a foot of snow. It isn't quite 2010 levels yet, either of the 2010s (although there are shades of the latter in the output) but I don't think at this stage in 2010 we quite thought it would be as snowy as it was. I remember after the Sunday night into the Monday that both the Monday afternoon and Tuesday night-Wednesday were seen as 'rest days' when it would dry up, with the reality being that it was very snowy both of those days. It was also marginal at points at the coast, we must remember - temperatures were not widely sub zero and there was no real freeze up either until the Saturday evening after all except the M-8 stuff had fallen. Monday has real potential, as does Tuesday and now it would appear Wednesday going by that exceptional FAX chart. We're once again reliant on the euros rather than the GFS being right but if that is the case, then the cold will not retreat past Wednesday - far from it. At the surface the likelihood would be a slackening of the flow and some very low minima could be reached before a potential reload. If we were to get to that point I'd imagine a foot of snow would not be a rare occurence for much of the country.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Double luck here in Leith tonight. not just getting on the end of that squall streamer thing. But after praying all day for the synoptic flow to go north of east, in fact the current just south of east has given us a bit of protection from being right on the coast. Seeing 2c and 3c further up the east coast where that SE onshore wind looks pretty aggressive. Things can and probably will change, but for now we seem to be in relative shelter in the short-term

Don't know how the uppers are looking but I'm assuming not quite as good as they were in the 2010 easterly.

It's not really much different, although the flow then was reinforced by a better cold pool over Scandinavia:

Edited January 19, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Sunny Leith]

cheers LS, not as bad as I feared then. Being greedy I would like to have seen the skies clear a bit and get a bit of frost in all that soft fluffy stuff out there....but its not going to be leaving the cold ground anytime soon, at least not the grassy parts.

Still hard to believe that 2010 chart was end of November, astonishing !

It's not really much different, although the flow then was reinforced by a better cold pool over Scandinavia:

[LomondSnowstorm]

cheers LS, not as bad as I feared then. Being greedy I would like to have seen the skies clear a bit and get a bit of frost in all that soft fluffy stuff out there....but its not going to be leaving the cold ground anytime soon, at least not the grassy parts.

Still hard to believe that 2010 chart was end of November, astonishing !

I agree about the frost, it always makes me feel better to see it frozen up for the night. We do still have a bit of that low dewpoint thing going on though which is positive, certainly even on the milder coastal parts dewpoints are well below 0C and seem to be almost inversely related to temperature tonight. Still the potential for more snow, but after such a lot in a short space of time I wouldn't want to push it.

Yes, no sign of uppers above -8C for a few days if UKMO is right, which is quite astonishing really.

I have no idea how that happened, even going back to the 1800s charts an easterly of that potency in November is a very rare beast. Usually it takes an Arctic northerly to get any real cold with easterlies just bringing in a bit of haar or murk.

[Buriedundersnow]

is it just me or do things look to have beefed up a little on the radar in the last 20 mins or so

[gsteruk]

indeed, seems to be a lot more movement over central that i expected. a few gaps, but not too bad a start considering i was expecting nothing until monday!

[andy100]

Got Lettuce all here, thank Lettucej for ma bucky.

[Guest]

I have just been out and brushed the car in perfect time for a snow shower to start dropping more :lol:

The showers in the North Sea are looking beefy, just wait until the sun gets onto the tops of them for a wee bit more convection to kick off. It could be another interesting day in the east.

[Highland Snow]

Slushfest here really.

Temperature went up to +2.2C at 03.22. Currently +1.6C/-0.5C so I am personally highly disappointed with yesterday's performance.

Not confident it will be any better Sunday/Monday.

Off to work in the Cairngorms National Park (do you and the children want a lift up Edo, Allyw, OTR?).

[Hawesy]

Nothing here overnight with the rise in temperature but it's now falling back: +1.9c. I'm heading down to NW England for a couple of days so no reports from here until later on Monday - fingers crossed I come back to some snow - though not liking the "perhaps gales over the east Neuk." wording from the Met Office in the outlook.

[101_North]

Current temp of -2c/-5c reporting at Edinburgh Airport so no issues with temp. Kids up and busting to get out. Last night ended up being better than I expected. Around 3 inches = snowmen and sledging! Hopefully see a few beefy showers at some point but let's not be greedy :-)

Edited January 19, 2013 by 101_North

[Snowplough33]

Yeh slushy this morning but still a covering. In my neck of the woods, beggars can't be choosers. Dew points drop through the day today and end up very low tonight. Uppers and 950's in good shape. -11's coming to visit this evening. That's exceptional. Not sure how the uppers effect convection. Be interested to hear thoughts? Hopefully keep some convection going till tomorrow to maintain snow cover. 2m temps on the coast appear to drop a degree today aswell so lots to be positive about.

[Guest]

Yeh slushy this morning but still a covering. In my neck of the woods, beggars can't be choosers. Dew points drop through the day today and end up very low tonight. Uppers and 950's in good shape. -11's coming to visit this evening. That's exceptional. Not sure how the uppers effect convection. Be interested to hear thoughts? Hopefully keep some convection going till tomorrow to maintain snow cover. 2m temps on the coast appear to drop a degree today aswell so lots to be positive about.

The colder the upper air the greater the convection of heat upwards and the greater the instability of the air mass; so it should bring more showers. Although one of our resident boffins will no doubt give a proper explanation later.

Not long back from dropping Mrs Catch off at work. It's going to be carnage out there today. Ploughs (big and small) are out in force, but the roads are sparkling with the cold air temperature, plus it's snowing on and off.

[doctormog]

A world apart from the dreich damp windy not overly cold conditions here. On the plus side it can probably only gets better, simply because it cannot really get much worse.

[Guest]

A world apart from the dreich damp windy not overly cold conditions here. On the plus side it can probably only gets better, simply because it cannot really get much worse.

Sorry to hear this doctormog, I hope you realise how much I appreciate the snow that we have got down here. I have been there in the past with getting hee-haw while others are going on about their snow. It's a pish position to be in

We need an extra button on the forum, next to the "Like This" button; "That's Pish" would do the trick.

[doctormog]

I am genuinely delighted to see that you and others have done so well. It's just the "so close" but so rubbish way things have turned out here so far that is a bit depressing. I'd rather it was dry and sunny than this. Not to worry I am sure there'll be a northerly some time this year.

[drm]

really want to see that wind swing to more of a nor/nor/easterly for us here, too much of a fetch with the present east south easterly that we presently have the joys of being a coastal location i suppose

Edited January 19, 2013 by drm

[thebigyin]

Morning all

I see there has been a flurry of North Eastern posts (not a flurry of snow anyway, that's for sure!) so wont repeat the doom and gloom for here. Very disappointing - we started with more snow yesterday than we have now! I agree the outlook for later today and tonight and I think tomorrow is more favourable in terms of temps. Not sure on convection but encouraging what CMD posted. Fingers crossed. Kids asking where the snow is-sledging was promised so we will head inland. Any reports on snow over in the Shire?