South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

[That ECM]

I think its important to remember that Fridays Snow wasnt forecast to fall as snow on the south coast untill pretty close to the event........I for one will not be looking at that type of information with too many inconsistancies between models and positionings of LPs and PPn.

Just to show this, the attached picture shows Christchurch (mudeford) beach

Are sure this pic is this year and not 2010. 1 mile in land from there, did not have that much.

[jessandjon]

Course I will get snow !! I booked ages ago!!!

[divadee]

Well this is a new update from the MO app for tomorrow.

[Paul T]

With regard to Tuesday snow.

The biggest risk I can currently see is that it all slips further South, this, and the marginality of temps of course.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Sadly the contractual restrictions on ECMWF means I'm not allowed to post their ppn or snow probability output whilst it remains part of current forecast.... sorry, not my decision!

No problem Ian, I know if you could you would. I'll do with what I've got.

[BARRY]

-0.1 now in plymouth... First ever negative reading.

maybe no snow but that's cheered me up.

it's been negative all day here

[dec10snow]

So next weekend, is going to be milder without any snow?

No idea! Also no idea if Ian is still here, but this is from his twitter:

W COUNTRY We're also watching model developments for next weekend, with potential for a more widespread snowy breakdown from the west.

[Frosty_wsm]

Well another ice day today with temperature maxing out at -1c and now down to -2.1c so if it clears tonight it could drop very low indeed.

Going to be alot of radar watching next 2 days and nowcasting as this forecast for next few days changes each run

What's the snow cover like up mendip way? might take a spin up there this evening.

[fergieweather]

However: for interest value, here are some examples of the sorts of EC EPS (coloured stamps), MOGREPS (grayscale map) and UKV output used when assessing areal snow probs etc at Ops Centre. NOTE: These are old examples and NOT valid for current forecast period.

[caz100]

waiting for snow........ taps foot.... lol

[chris55]

No idea! Also no idea if Ian is still here, but this is from his twitter:

W COUNTRY We're also watching model developments for next weekend, with potential for a more widespread snowy breakdown from the west.

It's always nice for a cold spell to go out with a bang, rather than a whimper!! Remember 2010? It just faded out over 48 hours with a slow thaw. A good snow event to finish (for now) would be great!!

[BARRY]

waiting for snow........ taps foot.... lol

well don't kick the dog :-)

[Nights King]

What's the snow cover like up mendip way? might take a spin up there this evening.

Around about 6/7 inches with some small drifting in places. Have not seen even the slightest thaw since it fell which is nice, even my phone line is still covered

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

With regard to Tuesday snow.

The biggest risk I can currently see is that it all slips further South, this, and the marginality of temps of course.

This is true Paul, on the GFS12Z update. UKMO, NAE and ECM continues to support the more N trend. Right now unless I see continuity of the more Southerly bias from the GFS and other models coming on board, I would stick with my original prognosis. Very complex and a lot to be resolved.

[chris55]

However: for interest value, here are some examples of the sorts of EC EPS (coloured stamps), MOGREPS (grayscale map) and UKV output used when assessing areal snow probs etc at Ops Centre. NOTE: These are old examples and NOT valid for current forecast period.

I'm assuming the UKV scale is for snowfall????

If so the scale is crazy 150cms!!

[gottolovethisweather]

So next weekend, is going to be milder without any snow?

Not sure, but the one thing that is certain at t+168 hours, is that it will be Sunday 27th January and the day before will be Saturday 26th January.

Sorry alex, if fergieweather says it is an outside chance at this range, then that's good enough for me.

I don't unfortunately own a crystal ball.

Edited January 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dec10snow]

It's always nice for a cold spell to go out with a bang, rather than a whimper!! Remember 2010? It just faded out over 48 hours with a slow thaw. A good snow event to finish (for now) would be great!!

Yeah, was rather boring if I remember rightly! Good old 2010, it was got me more interested in the weather! And I thank Mother Nature for that

Edited January 20, 2013 by dec10snow

[Iceberg]

No problem Ian, I know if you could you would. I'll do with what I've got.

THC, Thankfully the icelandic folk ignore the ECM warnings. Precip can be viewed here.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[dec10snow]

However: for interest value, here are some examples of the sorts of EC EPS (coloured stamps), MOGREPS (grayscale map) and UKV output used when assessing areal snow probs etc at Ops Centre. NOTE: These are old examples and NOT valid for current forecast period.

Interesting thank you just gives us an idea of how much the met office has access to!

[Coast]

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17229-winter-2013-045jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17228-winter-2013-043jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17227-winter-2013-041jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17226-winter-2013-040jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17225-winter-2013-039jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17224-winter-2013-038jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17223-winter-2013-037jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17222-winter-2013-036jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17221-winter-2013-035jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17220-winter-2013-034jpg/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17218-winter-2013-032/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17216-winter-2013-030/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17212-winter-2013-022/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17211-winter-2013-019/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17210-winter-2013-018/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17208-winter-2013-016/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17207-winter-2013-015/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17206-winter-2013-013/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17205-winter-2013-012/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17203-winter-2013-009/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17202-winter-2013-008/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17201-winter-2013-007/

[fergieweather]

THC, Thankfully the icelandic folk ignore the ECM warnings. Precip can be viewed here.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

They have licensed re-use rights. Bit akin to MeteoGroup through their WeatherPro app etc.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

THC, Thankfully the icelandic folk ignore the ECM warnings. Precip can be viewed here.

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

That is absolutely wonderful, cheers mate, massive help!

[fUnKy]

it's been negative all day here

i'm in the city though. This is the coldest I've ever recorded.

[Lynxus]

Been out sledging..

[George]

Net Weather gone from 80% chance of snow tomorrow right down to 0%.