South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

[dec10snow]

Hi what app is that and o you know which model data it uses?

Cheers

Marc

Hi! I don't believe they have an app, I just use their website... It's a Norwegian website and I use them now and again. Usually relatively accurate... Here's a link

http://m.yr.no/

Just put your location in, and it'll give you a few choices

I have no idea what model(s) they use, but seem to go a bit extreme on the temperature front!

Edit: Just went on the full site to see where you're from. So this is one for Swindon:

http://m.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Swindon~2636388/

Edited January 20, 2013 by dec10snow

[Andy Bown]

Warminster had several hours of snizzle that left an icing sugar coating earlier. Since then the sky has brightened and the sun has shone

for the first time since Wednesday! An ice day still seems likely though as it's currently -0.3c which is the max so far.

I hope it stays clearer as it would allow for a temperature plummet unlike the last few nights.

[AWD]

Latest NAE suggests another small band of quite heavy PPN comes up from the SW Tuesday morning, this falling as rain over Devon, Dorset and into Somerset, turning to snow over Bristol, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire.

Sorry, can't post charts, my limit has run out!

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

There is increasing confidence that an area of low pressure will bring its attendant weather fronts in across the South West during the course of Tuesday bringing another period of potentially significant snowfall to parts of South West and Southern England.

We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

There remains some uncertainty on snow totals and the extent of the snowfall to the South and close to coastal areas, it's likely that precipitation will fall as rain and sleet initially across Devon, South Somerset, South Dorset and Coastal Hampshire, but as the cold air undercuts later it's likely to turn increasingly to snow - giving accumulations.

The main snow line is generally in line with the M4 corridor with strongest and most persistent signals for severe disruption around the Forest of Dean, Bristol, Bath and Central/Southern Wilts into North Somerset and North Dorset.

The Northern extent of the band could also be extended and progression East across the South Coast to affect West and East Sussex also remains a possibility.

We'll have further updates through the course of today and tomorrow.

[chris55]

Yes NAE looking interesting for Tuesday morning!

Edited January 20, 2013 by chris55

[AWD]

Yes NAE looking interesting for Tuesday morning!

Be interesting to see if that goes on to stall like Friday or just pushes on NE.

[cerneman]

People seem to have descended on area, hills full sledging, Should have set up hot soup kiosk , could have made few bob,,,Been very overcast all day, temps hovering around freezing, Main road clear, but some side roads still icy with impacted snow,

[theprophecyman]

We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

That makes a change

[Sainsbo]

BBC are forecasting just sleet here Tuesday... I think after seeing these models that may change!

[chris55]

Be interesting to see if that goes on to stall like Friday or just pushes on NE.

Yes AWD this little feature is certainly the most pronounced we have scene since Fridays snow. NAE has been toying with smaller events over the last few days (for the westcountry/south west) but this one, looks potentially a bit more stable/likely.

One to watch. A stall, then a slide south east would be perfect!

Edited January 20, 2013 by chris55

[Jayfromcardiff]

There is increasing confidence that an area of low pressure will bring its attendant weather fronts in across the South West during the course of Tuesday bringing another period of potentially significant snowfall to parts of South West and Southern England.

We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

There remains some uncertainty on snow totals and the extent of the snowfall to the South and close to coastal areas, it's likely that precipitation will fall as rain and sleet initially across Devon, South Somerset, South Dorset and Coastal Hampshire, but as the cold air undercuts later it's likely to turn increasingly to snow - giving accumulations.

The main snow line is generally in line with the M4 corridor with strongest and most persistent signals for severe disruption around the Forest of Dean, Bristol, Bath and Central/Southern Wilts into North Somerset and North Dorset.

The Northern extent of the band could also be extended and progression East across the South Coast to affect West and East Sussex also remains a possibility.

We'll have further updates through the course of today and tomorrow.

Is this on the METO website mate or was it created by yourself? Cheers.

[iceman1991]

That makes a change

where did you get that from lol ?

[Cleeve Hill]

Up here (just north of Cheltenham) we had had steady light snow all day. Cleeve hill is looking great! 300m asl so lots of snow. A great place to walk and sledge, even saw a couple of snowboarders and skiers.

[Mapantz]

Is this on the METO website mate or was it created by yourself? Cheers.

Keithy does the analysis and maps himself.

[iceman1991]

There is increasing confidence that an area of low pressure will bring its attendant weather fronts in across the South West during the course of Tuesday bringing another period of potentially significant snowfall to parts of South West and Southern England.

We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

There remains some uncertainty on snow totals and the extent of the snowfall to the South and close to coastal areas, it's likely that precipitation will fall as rain and sleet initially across Devon, South Somerset, South Dorset and Coastal Hampshire, but as the cold air undercuts later it's likely to turn increasingly to snow - giving accumulations.

The main snow line is generally in line with the M4 corridor with strongest and most persistent signals for severe disruption around the Forest of Dean, Bristol, Bath and Central/Southern Wilts into North Somerset and North Dorset.

The Northern extent of the band could also be extended and progression East across the South Coast to affect West and East Sussex also remains a possibility.

We'll have further updates through the course of today and tomorrow.

where did you get that from mate or did you just made it up urself lol ???

[stuboy]

Snowing all day in Maidenhead. But if anything it has thawed more than its settled!

[George]

Just seen this released by Met Office which is in place for tonight and tomorrow. Looking good

Edited January 20, 2013 by George

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes I understand the forecast to not be affiliated with MetO sources. Nevertheless the right authorities will be looking into what will be a very difficult forecasting period over the coming days.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Is this on the METO website mate or was it created by yourself? Cheers.

Sorry to cause confusion, this is from myself. It's likely the MO will be issuing a yellow warning initially with an amber once clarity sets in. The amber some-where along the lines of the 60% or perhaps 40% most likely.

[latitude]

Tues event might be a little better for settling snow initially instead on a wet mix to start with like Friday.

The cold air is already in place.

[otleygas]

Keithy does the analysis and maps himself.

And he has an uncanny knack of being right!

[sherrie]

That makes a change

no difference for us just cold rain again.

[chris55]

Hadn't seen the GFS 06z but the risk of snow is there for Tuesday, m4 north.

Will update to the 12z anytime now.

12z det takes the ppn well south.

Edited January 20, 2013 by chris55

[latitude]

Snowing all day in Maidenhead. But if anything it has thawed more than its settled!

Thats exactly what happend in most parts on the SW on Friday.

It just hasent been cold enough at 2m.

[Iceberg]

There is increasing confidence that an area of low pressure will bring its attendant weather fronts in across the South West during the course of Tuesday bringing another period of potentially significant snowfall to parts of South West and Southern England.

We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

There remains some uncertainty on snow totals and the extent of the snowfall to the South and close to coastal areas, it's likely that precipitation will fall as rain and sleet initially across Devon, South Somerset, South Dorset and Coastal Hampshire, but as the cold air undercuts later it's likely to turn increasingly to snow - giving accumulations.

The main snow line is generally in line with the M4 corridor with strongest and most persistent signals for severe disruption around the Forest of Dean, Bristol, Bath and Central/Southern Wilts into North Somerset and North Dorset.

The Northern extent of the band could also be extended and progression East across the South Coast to affect West and East Sussex also remains a possibility.

We'll have further updates through the course of today and tomorrow.

100% agree thc, I was waiting for the gfs to come out as the solution on offer from the nae at t48 of a triple centre low is complicated in the extreme.

Trying to fathom where will have sleet rain or snow is a total nightmare, I'd go with 25 miles from the south coast for snow, meaning it will only be t he far north of north dorset that gets snow, then into wilts etc and upto s.wales.

Totals are very difficult as well anything from 5-25 is possible as we just don't know now vigorous the instability will be.