South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

[Fred Sykes]

Where's all the southern lasses then! We need a photo like our northern counterparts have;

They must be from Newcastle! Bravo girls

[Wilxy]

Looking like a nightmare of a forecast now, but very intresting as this is very much still a nowcast but with a greater threat of rain or sleet.

1.4°C

DP -1°C

Temps starting to fall again but only very slowly.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Totally agree. Taking what the models show for tomorrow with a pinch of salt currently.

Too much variance for confident forecasts.

Yup. Just tweeted Ian that exact question.

The most multi-model agreement we had was a few days back when UKMO, GFS and NAE had a similar evolution to the one being projected on the latest NAE12Z, the problem being 'all the inconsistencies' in between. Vast variations in the PPN spread and totals and little to no comprehension. A stronger PPN signal on the GFS12Z and some general support in the occlusions evolution would be a good place to start, then the positioning of the front on the ECM12Z, which has also struggled.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[khodds]

Oh God. So whats it going to be then? Everyone at work is pestering me - but I'm clueless!

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

PPN more aggressive to the South West so far, GFS12Z rolling

[lfcdude]

surely the snow cover we got now will keep temps down?

[SilverWolf]

Although temps higher today, its now fairly clear skies here for the first time since its snowed. Surely temps will drop much further tonight? That's gotta help tomorrow if the ppn gets this far...

[AWD]

PPN more aggressive to the South West so far, GFS12Z rolling

Still at odds with the NAE though. GFS just "fizzles" around with it, not really moving it, keeping most of it limited to the south coast, aside from a bit in Wales.

No northeastward propagation at all.

Shows interest for Somerset, Dorset and Hampshire though.

Edited January 21, 2013 by AWD

[AWD]

GFS at 42 hours;

NAE at 42 hours;

UKMO at 42 hours;

Still obvious differences.

Edited January 21, 2013 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

Where's all the southern lasses then! We need a photo like our northern counterparts have;

:)

Bank!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

certainly looks like a washout for southcoast tomorrow so could say for us this cold spell is over but its been exciting.

lets hope for round 2.

[jethro]

A question for you clever folk....just checked the forecast for here and from tomorrow night at 9pm, all the way through to Wed 6am, it's saying moderate sleet. But, the temperature range is forecast to be -0.9c to -2.4c, the dew temp range is -1.6c to -3.1 so how would it be sleet?????

[warren]

Just ran the net weather radar and some of that ppn in the Bristol channel seems to be intensifying and heading directly towards the east of our region

[Ali1977]

North wilts Swindon looks much better for snow on the GFS 12z

[AWD]

A question for you clever folk....just checked the forecast for here and from tomorrow night at 9pm, all the way through to Wed 6am, it's saying moderate sleet. But, the temperature range is forecast to be -0.9c to -2.4c, the dew temp range is -1.6c to -3.1 so how would it be sleet?????

WBFL is forecast to increase in marginality.

[smckay]

If you look at the 850 chart (GFS) the isobars sink to around the midlands which would halt the northern push of any rain. It is how low that sinks down the country that will determine how far into our region the PPN comes on Wednesday morning.

[AWD]

The GFS is actually pretty good for snowfall across the W/Country. Slow to get going, but keeps PPN/Snowfall over the area for a long period of time.

Unfortunetly, its just one run from one model currently.

[Jace]

A little bit off topic

Can anyone recommend please any books about how to understand the weather, charts etc

Something like "the weather for dummies" would be good

TIA

Jace

[Blizzardof82]

Looking at GFS 12z it does not seem to make much of feature?

Edit: Tomorrow seems to pep up more night into Wednesday.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Blizzardof82

[Beast of Plympton]

Sorry for being stupid, but what is WFBL?

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Still at odds with the NAE though. GFS just "fizzles" around with it, not really moving it, keeping most of it limited to the south coast, aside from a bit in Wales.

No northeastward propagation at all.

Shows interest for Somerset, Dorset and Hampshire though.

For areas of Somerset, Dorset and Hampshire it's still very much in line, the Northward progression or lack of is still a major issue for the GFS. ECM00Z did favour a similar PPN progression and intensity to the this 12ZGFS evolution, so to date I feel it's closer to the mark. Averaging it out a little the GFS12Z is a lot closer to how things are likely to pan out I feel, it's certainly fairly close to ECM00Z, all major parts of South East Wales are covered, as the previous NAE guidance excluding 12Z of course.

[BristolBlizzard]

Just ran the net weather radar and some of that ppn in the Bristol channel seems to be intensifying and heading directly towards the east of our region

Unexpected Bristol channel streamers are the best, here's hoping

[Wilxy]

A question for you clever folk....just checked the forecast for here and from tomorrow night at 9pm, all the way through to Wed 6am, it's saying moderate sleet. But, the temperature range is forecast to be -0.9c to -2.4c, the dew temp range is -1.6c to -3.1 so how would it be sleet?????

I asked same question earlier my response was wet bulb.

[AWD]

Some GFS eye candy;

[Jace]

They must be from Newcastle! Bravo girls

They may well be from the toon... Consett is not too far away.