South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

[AWD]

A couple more snippets from Ian;

"W COUNTRY There is potential for parts of @bbcpointswest region to be back at 'square one' tomoro: full forecast thoughts at 6:30pm this eve"

"Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components..."

[karlos1983]

just seen south today for ferndown dorset area looks like we could get snow from 4pm tuesday night onwards what do you think as im not as experienced as some of you weather experts on here.

I would watch Points West later, I don't even watch south today weather anymore, it's laughable. You get a good idea of our weather from their weather reports, Ian F's forecasts are top draw. if you have sky, it's on Channel; 966 I believe.

Tomorrpow morning will probably give a better idea on the local weather from south today.

[divadee]

Thought I would be lucky and get a 2nd ice day. Temps gone up to. 0.5c in the past hour. Boooo

[Wilxy]

A couple more snippets from Ian;

"W COUNTRY There is potential for parts of @bbcpointswest region to be back at 'square one' tomoro: full forecast thoughts at 6:30pm this eve"

"Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components..."

I think it will be a nowcast but makes the whole situation more exciting

1.6°C thawing quite a bit now.

[EGHH]

Looks very interesting tomorrow. If I'm reading this right, we have a wave on an occlusion creating a small depression which then quickly occludes. All "on our patch".

Below is an animated gif snapshot from the high res models for 12z tomorrow. Should be NAE-NMM-UKV

The UKV looks like a better resolved NMM while the NAE seems to be beating it's own path. I guess MOGREPS is highly useful in this situation and given what Ian is saying, there are several possibilities on the table and the best they can do is make a prediction basd on the most likely outcome - yeah good luck with that one!

PS Happy b/day GTLTW!

[gottolovethisweather]

Yellow Warning of Snow for South West England :

Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset, Wiltshire, South Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire, Poole & Bournemouth

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow may affect parts of southwest England and south Wales during Tuesday. The main risk appears to be in the western portion of the warning area but snow may extend east as far as Wiltshire and Hampshire late on Tuesday. Some 2-5 cm of snow is likely in places with a risk of as much as 5-10 cm, more particularly high ground.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

Issued at: 1212 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...&fcTime=1358683

and while I'm here....Happy birthday Tony (gtltw) here is your cake.....

....I don't know what the bird on top is but I'm sure you do ....it looks cold anyway

Thank you MK, me old cupcake.

[Lynxus]

Sun is out. Snow vanishing.

Bye Bye winter

[Beast of Plympton]

Sun is out. Snow vanishing.

Bye Bye winter

Sun is it but snow not vanishing strangely.... Still only 0c here

[cerneman]

Sun is out. Snow vanishing.

Bye Bye winter

Will that mean early spring or shall we skip straight to summer? Edited January 21, 2013 by cerneman

[Wilxy]

Sun is it but snow not vanishing strangely.... Still only 0c here

1.7°C here looks like theres a mild sector then, what is other people reporting?

[Polar Bear]

Happy Birthday GTLTW - tried to send you a PM but you cant recieve any messages! Anyway my present from me to you is more snow either today or tomorrow! I maybe clutching at straws I know but hey it is your birthday so why not!

PB x

[Lynxus]

Will that mean early spring or shell we skip straight to summer?

Straight to summer would be perfect thanks.

[Coast]

GFS is really having none of it, even at this close range:

If anything, this looks just like a Colt 45 pointing right at the SE!!!

[Erbyskerby]

Happy birthday gtltw!

Stayed up ALL night but got nuffink!

Temp back up to 5 degrees.

Ah well nevermind.

[MP-R]

Could someone explain why snow melts when the temperature is still below freezing? I can only think that not having leaden skies has helped?

[festivalking]

If anybody not in the points west area does not have sky to check out Fergies weather I would suggest going to points west Facebook page. The forecast is posted 10 minutes after the programme has finished.

[AWD]

Expect another slight SWestwards shift on the 12z NAE. Devon and southwest Somerset to be in the firing line on this run, along with South Wales.

[Beast of Plympton]

GFS is really having none of it, even at this close range:

If anything, this looks just like a Colt 45 pointing right at the SE!!!

Haha!! Or a jet wash gun filled with snow!!

[AWD]

Could someone explain why snow melts when the temperature is still below freezing? I can only think that not having leaden skies has helped?

Ground temperature. Up until this cold spell, the ground was relatively warm due to minimal frosts over the Christmas/New Year period.

[Nights King]

Steady thaw even on mendip this afternoon. 1.1c

Still think snow will go west of somerset looking at it shall look forward to hearing what ian thinks this evening.

Need an eastward adjustment or for wider area of ppn etc.

Edited January 21, 2013 by mullender83

[Mapantz]

BBQ at mine later .. 1.2°C

[Lynxus]

Haha!! Or a jet wash gun filled with snow!!

LOL.

I have a feeling that we need this mess we have currently to just do one.

Wait a few days and then have a decent reload.

This "easterly" hasn't exactly been "cold" We either need to good northerly or a strong easterly . none of this half heartedness.

I for one welcome our new cold reload overlords.

[latitude]

Sure

Those pics didnt show for some reason?

[DanDorsetUK]

Looks like rain or sleet for this area not getting my hopes up now.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Rapodo

[Coast]

Haha!! Or a jet wash gun filled with snow!!

Well there are some odd old things being forecast for our adjoining regions tomorrow and I would be surprised to see anything finally falling out of the sky, from cold rain to full-on snow - or maybe nothing at all?