South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

[karlos1983]

Well I'm confused!

[Mapantz]

I don't suppose any of you can chuck up a couple of NMM precip-type charts? It would be muchly appreciated.

[bellanite]

In this situation no one can say where and when or even if til a lot later today. Going to be a now cast I think some will be lucky and some not. Glad to hear Cornwall has seen some of the white stuff now.

Edited January 21, 2013 by bellanite

[Coast]

I don't suppose any of you can chuck up a couple of NMM precip-type charts? It would be muchly appreciated.

If you pay for subscription!! It doesn't look good TBH:

[AWD]

Remember, tomorrow's occlusion is a complex feature with substantial inter-model variances on potential outcomes.

There is no confidence in exact locations, exact accumulations, exact intensity or exact duration at this present time. It will most likely come down to radar watching tomorrow.

The threat of some significant snowfall somewhere around the West Country is there, further details than that are too hard to say with any great deal of confidence at this stage. I would advise not to take TV forecasts, Met Office warnings and model output with to much precision at this stage as things are likely to change right up to T+0.

My advice, get the Netweather radar, get a couple of cans of West Country cider, take the day off work and nowcast. That's the only way your going to get a confident, probable forecast tomorrow.

Unless of course, we suddenly see universal agreement on the 12z output! I doubt it though. :p

[Beast of Plympton]

Remember, tomorrow's occlusion is a complex feature with substantial inter-model variances on potential outcomes.

There is no confidence in exact locations, exact accumulations, exact intensity or exact duration at this present time. It will most likely come down to radar watching tomorrow.

The threat of some significant snowfall somewhere around the West Country is there, further details than that are too hard to say with any great deal of confidence at this stage. I would advise not to take TV forecasts, Met Office warnings and model output with to much precision at this stage as things are likely to change right up to T+0.

My advice, get the Netweather radar, get a couple of cans of West Country cider, take the day off work and nowcast. That's the only way your going to get a confident, probable forecast tomorrow.

Unless of course, we suddenly see universal agreement on the 12z output! I doubt it though.

I hope you get commission from Netweather!!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[fUnKy]

I hope you get commission from Netweather!!

you look very good for a top up. If my damn virus goes may even have a chance to get up there

[snowmadchrisuk]

lol @ Metcheck ... Next 2 hours and rush up Bristol Channel ... Intense .... I bet Andrew is turning in his Prizon Cell at such an incorrect forecast

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Beast of Plympton]

you look very good for a top up. If my damn virus goes may even have a chance to get up there

I have to say it does look good. We have it forecast from tonight all the way through tomorrow on Met Office. You shoud come up, but a bit further than Roborough Down as we are higher and its deeper up here!!

Hope you feel better mate.

[Mapantz]

If you pay for subscription!! It doesn't look good TBH:

I normally do but i can't renew due to problems with my card/bank at the moment, transactions don't seem to be working.

Thanks for that. I'm quite surprised what they currently show, i expect they'll look different later.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Mapantz

[SnowChance24]

I'm a little confused for the timing of this sw event. Can anyone clear it up? Will it be tonight through tomorrow or Tuesday into Wednesday?

[Man With Beard]

Light sleet in Cosham, around 1 deg C

[Polar Bear]

Remember, tomorrow's occlusion is a complex feature with substantial inter-model variances on potential outcomes.

There is no confidence in exact locations, exact accumulations, exact intensity or exact duration at this present time. It will most likely come down to radar watching tomorrow.

The threat of some significant snowfall somewhere around the West Country is there, further details than that are too hard to say with any great deal of confidence at this stage. I would advise not to take TV forecasts, Met Office warnings and model output with to much precision at this stage as things are likely to change right up to T+0.

My advice, get the Netweather radar, get a couple of cans of West Country cider, take the day off work and nowcast. That's the only way your going to get a confident, probable forecast tomorrow.

Unless of course, we suddenly see universal agreement on the 12z output! I doubt it though.

"There is no confidence in exact locations, exact accumulations, exact intensity or exact duration at this present time. It will most likely come down to radar watching tomorrow.

The threat of some significant snowfall somewhere around the West Country is there, further details than that are too hard to say with any great deal of confidence at this stage. I would advise not to take TV forecasts, Met Office warnings and model output with to much precision at this stage as things are likely to change right up to T+0."

Lovely jubbly that means that Berkshire could have some potential ....or not. Wait and See game begins from late tonight.

[Blizzardof82]

Simon Keelings latest musing nothing mild in near future even when Atlantic does break through although flooding could become an issue next week http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

[cerneman]

I'm a little confused for the timing of this sw event. Can anyone clear it up? Will it be tonight through tomorrow or Tuesday into Wednesday?

For your area about 6 am, But very unsure timing [ what will fall even more unsure at moment] Edited January 21, 2013 by cerneman

[latitude]

Can anyone give any charts regarding 850's and 2m temperatures for tomorrows event?

Seems much more marginal and slushy than Fridays event.

Thanks.

[festivalking]

I have to say it does look good. We have it forecast from tonight all the way through tomorrow on Met Office. You shoud come up, but a bit further than Roborough Down as we are higher and its deeper up here!!

Hope you feel better mate.

Crikey thats 12 hours of snow!!! Seen the top of end of plymouth down grade from light snow - sleet and finally heavy rain. Tis a strange forecast as I thought the NAE charts showed more PPN further North and West. Good luck with that!!

[cerneman]

Simon Keelings latest musing nothing mild in near future even when Atlantic does break through although flooding could become an issue next week http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Now that would be Novelty

[Beast of Plympton]

Crikey thats 12 hours of snow!!! Seen the top of end of plymouth down grade from light snow - sleet and finally heavy rain. Tis a strange forecast as I thought the NAE charts showed more PPN further North and West. Good luck with that!!

I really think nobody knows and its going to be a nowcasting event. Keep the temps and dew points low and your in luck! Get everyone in woolwell to open the freezers mate!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for South West England :

Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset, Wiltshire, South Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire, Poole & Bournemouth

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow may affect parts of southwest England and south Wales during Tuesday. The main risk appears to be in the western portion of the warning area but snow may extend east as far as Wiltshire and Hampshire late on Tuesday. Some 2-5 cm of snow is likely in places with a risk of as much as 5-10 cm, more particularly high ground.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

Issued at: 1212 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...&fcTime=1358683

and while I'm here....Happy birthday Tony (gtltw) here is your cake.....

....I don't know what the bird on top is but I'm sure you do ....it looks cold anyway

[Beltanemaid]

I'm following Ian F on twitter and I have to admire the man's patience.

I may be way off the mark but is the 'messy occlusion' beginning to show on the Netweather radar just off SW Ireland?

Edited January 21, 2013 by Beltanemaid

[Wilxy]

Bristol channel streamer please

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can anyone give any charts regarding 850's and 2m temperatures for tomorrows event?

Seems much more marginal and slushy than Fridays event.

Thanks.

Sure

[Bristawl Si]

latest forecast on bbc1 didnt look great for tomorrow for snow for bristol area. but somerset and devon looked like it could be in firing line.

Just got home from the break down in Dartmouth and surprised at extent of thaw here at home.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Bristle boy

[eddy88888]

just seen south today for ferndown dorset area looks like we could get snow from 4pm tuesday night onwards what do you think as im not as experienced as some of you weather experts on here.