London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

[Bluebreezer54]

Light sleet shower in Fairlight at the moment

[rmc1987]

Re the potential Tues night in to early Weds morning, the 850s look a bit high. The -5c 850 being further to our North and too high on the DP based on GFS. Well I think that's what it shows anyway lol.

Edited January 21, 2013 by rmc1987

[Froze were the Days]

Wouldn't surprise me if we have another balmy February, 2012 February looked like we were onto one of the rare 'cold one's' for the first 10 days or so then HP set up close over France and the rest was history!

Don't want to destroy too many people's hopes regarding next month but I think we've only experienced 2 cold one's in the last 20 years (and by cold I mean more than -o.5c lower than average for this part of the UK).

Edited January 21, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[therecoil]

Snowing lightly here at the moment : )

[gazb21]

Working in bexhill tesco just walked out. 2 the van carpark turned white again. V light covering

[Whereisthesnow?]

-5 here.

Ignore - got that wrong!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Whereisthesnow?

[WillinGlossop]

v light snow in Canterbury atm

Light snow here for the last hour dusting on car and where snow has been cleared off and frozen surfaces..... Temp 0.2c dew -2c

[blackprince]

Very light snow here in Herne Bay 1.4C -0.8C dp

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Kent Blizzard]

Damn, passing to my East all that !!!

[Bluebreezer54]

Snowing lightly here at the moment : )

Did you manage to post any photo's of yesterdays 3 foot snowdrifts ? Not having a go at all, just asking cause you said you would. ;-)

[SHM040519]

Snow in canterbury!

[WillinGlossop]

Met office warning inside ice warning...

There is the risk of further localised snowfalls of some 1-3 cm in places during Monday, more particularly in the extreme southeast later.

Looks about right.....

Edited January 21, 2013 by willinkent44

[Country Boy]

I was going to have my first stab at a weekly forecast, but to be honest there isn't a lot to say at the moment.

Cold for most of the week. Some low night time minima. A slow thaw, with ice a problem. A few wintry showers around. With an outside shot of a light snowy top up in the W/SW of the region midweek.

The temps will slowly rise to near normal levels by the end of weekend, with the Atlantic set to break through. Perhaps with a snow to rain breakdown. Average and zonal thereafter, whilst we patiently await a reload of cold into Feb.

All subject to change of course. But that is what I am seeing at present.

agree..Mr atlantic has had his break and comes back fresh ( windy )

Light snow here for the last hour dusting on car and where snow has been cleared off and frozen surfaces..... Temp 0.2c dew -2c

I have the same here, car going white again and temps are -1.5

[abovefreezing]

Rain here!

[bobbydog]

I was going to have my first stab at a weekly forecast, but to be honest there isn't a lot to say at the moment.

Cold for most of the week. Some low night time minima. A slow thaw, with ice a problem. A few wintry showers around. With an outside shot of a light snowy top up in the W/SW of the region midweek.

The temps will slowly rise to near normal levels by the end of weekend, with the Atlantic set to break through. Perhaps with a snow to rain breakdown. Average and zonal thereafter, whilst we patiently await a reload of cold into Feb.

All subject to change of course. But that is what I am seeing at present.

that is what the models are showing..... at present..... however, "uncertainty" is the key word at the moment

we've had 'unusual' weather lately, in that there has been very little in the way of northern blocking, yet we have still had some good cold shots, which seem very much related to the recent SSW. just one example was yesterdays snow, which was from a low pressure system which came up from spain!!. we've seen the models wanting to bring the atlantic back several times and it hasn't happened yet.

guess what.... still no polar strat vortex!!-

[manutdmatt1986]

Damn, passing to my East all that !!!

Always the way :-(

[JAWebb]

remember folks the steepest temp drop of the day is 5 until around 10.

I think, assuming skies keep clear we will be at minus 4 by 10pm and much much lower by dawn.

Tonights the night for a minus 10.

S

-10 ? Not tonight. Need clear skies for that. Maybe scrape -4/5 at Biggin.

Same tomorrow night for sure with the circulation spewing more cloud.

Thurs night looks more promising for lower overnight temps.

[SMU]

THe cloud has spilled further west- so yes not so cold- however if it does clear -4 is a mile away.- to warm.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Mini tiger]

remember folks the steepest temp drop of the day is 5 until around 10.

I think, assuming skies keep clear we will be at minus 4 by 10pm and much much lower by dawn.

Tonights the night for a minus 10.

S

Hi Steve,

I've noticed a number of posts from you promising temps between -10 and -20oC for the south, covering the last week. The lowest we have had since last Friday is -1.8oC.

Why do you think there is such a big discrepancy. Have you been surprised how the temps havent fallen hardly at all ( about a 2oC variance) most days. I have to say I would

have expected lower temps over snow fields ? Very strange. Would appreciate your take on it ? Did it surprise you ?

[SMU]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO==

Back to the 0 PPN for most of our region for the next 48 hours

S

Hi Steve,

I've noticed a number of posts from you promising temps between -10 and -20oC for the south, covering the last week. The lowest we have had since last Friday is -1.8oC.

Why do you think there is such a big discrepancy. Have you been surprised how the temps havent fallen hardly at all ( about a 2oC variance) most days. I have to say I would

have expected lower temps over snow fields ? Very strange. Would appreciate your take on it ? Did it surprise you ?

Cloud- & perhaps a bit of low level moisture in the air-

Good ol cloud deck hasnt shifted at all...

Also wind direction- E or SE isnt ideal- need a Northerly or NWesterly-

+++ you live on the coast!!!

S

Edited January 21, 2013 by Steve Murr

[blackprince]

Hi Steve,

I've noticed a number of posts from you promising temps between -10 and -20oC for the south, covering the last week. The lowest we have had since last Friday is -1.8oC.

Why do you think there is such a big discrepancy. Have you been surprised how the temps havent fallen hardly at all ( about a 2oC variance) most days. I have to say I would

have expected lower temps over snow fields ? Very strange. Would appreciate your take on it ? Did it surprise you ?

Hi Steve was also wondering this,we did not get the very cold easterly winds that i thought we would.

[Bluebreezer54]

Moderate to heavy snow here now about a mile inland from the East Sussex coast. I wasn't expecting this at all.

[john pike]

tomorrow

looks cold

temps around 0-2

looks dry most of the day precipitaion poss later in the afternoon-early evening

chilly south east flow

just a note

the early morning ukmo chart has precipitation around 7 in the morning we will see on that one

tomorrow night

low pressure to our south

chilly south easterly flow

looks cold -5 maybe lower

according to ukmo the showers miss us

however i reckon snow flurries are possible overnight in any part of the south east

wednesday

chilly east south easterly flow

looks cold temps around 0 again

wind will feel very cold

maybe the odd snow flurry around but mainly dry

##

wednesday night

overnight a dieing front heads over the south east between midnight and morning

colder air digs in around the same time

so showers mainly of snow overnight

temps again around the -5 area colder in any clear spots

cold east-south easterly wind

more to follow

[Mini tiger]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO==

Back to the 0 PPN for most of our region for the next 48 hours

S

Cloud- & perhaps a bit of low level moisture in the air-

Good ol cloud deck hasnt shifted at all...

Also wind direction- E or SE isnt ideal- need a Northerly or NWesterly-

+++ you live on the coast!!!

S

Thanks Steve.. Im staying with my mum in Frimley for a couple of weeks. Its near Camberley in Surrey. Do you think we will get some snow tomorrow night as the fax

charts show a front lying across southern counties tomorrow evening ?