The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ----->

[shaky]

Anyone seen the line of snow coming into east anglia!!was that forecasted!!might reach here!!

[SL7]

Met Office is forecasting Heavy Snow with 80% probability of precipitation for Friday at 18:00 [Leicester].

[shaky]

Met Office is forecasting Heavy Snow with 80% probability of precipitation for Friday at 18:00 [Leicester].

Thats more like it!!let it snow!!

[kmanmx]

Snowing fairly moderate/heavy now. Still only 5p flakes with the occasional 10p thrown in for fun. Looks nice though, probably about 0.5cm fallen so far.

[andy_leics22]

Anyone seen the line of snow coming into east anglia!!was that forecasted!!might reach here!!

I highly doubt it will, the wind direction isn't right for that to reach here

Edited January 23, 2013 by andy_leics22

[shaky]

I highly doubt it will, the wind direction isn't right for that to reach here

You never know!!and even if doesnt so what we have had one of the best weeks snow wise in a long time!!

[lesta_snow]

I highly doubt it will, the wind direction isn't right for that to reach here

Haha I wish! Did you see the snow this morning, I say this morning but it was about 5am, I woke up for the loo and seen it was snowing! I honestly can't believe how much snow there has been over the last week and a half!

[andy_leics22]

Haha I wish! Did you see the snow this morning, I say this morning but it was about 5am, I woke up for the loo and seen it was snowing! I honestly can't believe how much snow there has been over the last week and a half!

No I missed it falling mate. When I left for work at 7am though I saw that we had got a fresh dusting

I said yesterday that I thought we would just see rain on Friday but now I think the chances of us seeing some heavy snowfall, as one last hurrah for this cold spell, are increasing!

[shaky]

The snow has just come into range on the nae!!at the moment i would say anywhere north of the m4 could see a significant snow event!

[kmanmx]

The snow has just come into range on the nae!!at the moment i would say anywhere north of the m4 could see a significant snow event!

Yep. Hopefully it arrives late in the day in the evening.

[NorthantsSnow]

Hope it doesn't turn to rain on the back edge which looks likely. I just want to enjoy some heavy snowfall before this cold spell is over. All I've seen here is light snow flurries, which is all well and good, but... I'm a greedy sod. There, I said it.

[Supacell]

Hope it doesn't turn to rain on the back edge which looks likely. I just want to enjoy some heavy snowfall before this cold spell is over. All I've seen here is light snow flurries, which is all well and good, but... I'm a greedy sod. There, I said it.

Yes I hope so too. Looks like some heavy snow over Friday evening and night, but GFS has it turning to rain for a while before clearing. I am hoping to get one last day in the snow on Saturday, even if I need to head up to the higher Peak District to see it. Met Office has temperatures up to 2c on Saturday which is not exactly mild so I am hoping for all snow.

[shaky]

Isnt it the nae that is ran at a higher resolution than the ukmo model in the first 48 hours??

[kmanmx]

Isnt it the nae that is ran at a higher resolution than the ukmo model in the first 48 hours??

Yes. Well, as far as the public can tell. I wouldn't be surprised if the data that the MetO supercomputer pumped out was higher resolution than they released to the public. Lately, i've found the UKMO pretty accurate as far as model outputs are concerned. Same for NMM and NAE to be fair.

And if that NAE comes off, then..well..... we are looking at 10 to 20cm widespread, some areas could see double that IMO. Though the GFS precipitation accumalation charts are about half of what the NAE predicts.

It's looking increasingly marginal though. It's certainly possible that this turns out to be a rain only event. GFS has it as nearly all rain. NAE has it as nearly all snow. So it's very up in the air at the moment.

I would expect MetO warnings to be updated towards late afternoon as certainty increases to the point where it is pretty likely to be the right outcome. If they think it will be majority snow, I would personally expect amber warnings for much of the country, potentially everywhere apart from coastal area from Milton Keynes north to Glasgow, that would be my guess.

Edited January 24, 2013 by kmanmx

[shaky]

Nae o6z looking still okay for the mdlands but clearly not as good than the 0z only reason becasue there is more of a south west flow whereas the 0z had a nice slack flow because of a shortwave that it developed which meant it would have probably stayed as snow throughout!!shortwaves a lot further north now!!damn!!

[andy_leics22]

Doesnt look very good for a last big snowfall on Friday now. The gfs has been downgrading the snow potential for the last 3 runs. Ive never seen the gfs be wrong at close range when it comes to a rain or snow event. But I have seen the NAE get it wrong.

[shaky]

Doesnt look very good for a last big snowfall on Friday now. The gfs has been downgrading the snow potential for the last 3 runs. Ive never seen the gfs be wrong at close range when it comes to a rain or snow event. But I have seen the NAE get it wrong.

Yeh!!oh well thats always the case!!never mind at least we can say leicester had 100% if the snowfall this time 😄!!lol

[kmanmx]

Doesnt look very good for a last big snowfall on Friday now. The gfs has been downgrading the snow potential for the last 3 runs. Ive never seen the gfs be wrong at close range when it comes to a rain or snow event. But I have seen the NAE get it wrong.

Most likely a rain event, but if it's marginal and we get a bit of luck, we could end up with a lot of snow.

[kmanmx]

NMM has it as snow then sleet then rain too.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Off topic, but you know it has got be cold in Chicago when putting out a fire does this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21176104

[snow freak]

Really hope we all (especially Northamptonshire) gets a few hours of heavy snow on Friday evening before the big thaw comes. Would be great to see one last heavy snowfall adding to the stuff we already have before it all disappears.

[shaky]

Amber warning of snow for east midlands!!10cms+!!just updated 5 mins ago!!

[snow freak]

What's been strange about this recent cold snap is the lack of really low nightime temperatures. I think the lowest we got down to was -3 or -4c which isn't particularly that severe. Saying that, unusually the daytime temps were cold staying around the freezing mark for the past 7-10 days so no snow melt in these parts since last Friday's snowfall. Saying that I think we still had more lying snow this year than we did in December 2010 although 2010 gave us lower temps. Even last year, although it was generally a mild winter, we did have a cold snap in early Feb and that gave us snow cover for over a week and 2 snow events and remarkably cold night temps which went down to -12c on one occasion.

[kmanmx]

Amber warning of snow for east midlands!!10cms+!!just updated 5 mins ago!!

Don't say I didn't predict so

"I would expect MetO warnings to be updated towards late afternoon as certainty increases to the point where it is pretty likely to be the right outcome. If they think it will be majority snow, I would personally expect amber warnings for much of the country, potentially everywhere apart from coastal area from Milton Keynes north to Glasgow, that would be my guess."

Pretty much what has happened

MetO have Leicester down for heavy snow 6pm and 9pm too.

Edited January 24, 2013 by kmanmx

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Amber warning of snow for east midlands!!10cms+!!just updated 5 mins ago!!

That's what I like to hear, hopefully we can get some those 50p size flakes that some of you lucky lot got last night!

Other than very light flurries it feels likes its been ages since we had any significant snowfall - be great for this cold spell to come to an end in style