The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ----->

[kev238]

Anyone taking what the gfs shows over the high resolution models is clearly not sensible. The met office use nae as the basis for their forecasts and that is good enough for me. I think it has got most snow events this winter spot on, perhaps under estimating some light snow fall on a couple of occasions.

Therefore, I shall be using n a e as the major guidance for this event. Some snow seems inevitable: and for nottingham, this is the first time we have been in amber this cold spell. There could be quite a lot of snowfall, albeit very wet and transitional, clearing off by the end of the night!!

[kmanmx]

Weather Pro is excellent. Shows dew points, pressure and has a radar. Not dumbed down at all. Most of the mainstream apps are dire for winter forecasting.

That's WeatherPro - yes, it's quality.

Yep. I forgot it's name when I went to reply!

I'm thinking NAE is overdoing precipitation amounts. NMM and GFS around around the 7 to 12 mm mark for our area, around what MetO are suggesting. NAE is wild and is nearly 20mm.

Edited January 24, 2013 by kmanmx

[shaky]

Yep. I forgot it's name when I went to reply!

I'm thinking NAE is overdoing precipitation amounts. NMM and GFS around around the 7 to 12 mm mark for area, around what MetO are suggesting. NAE is wild and is nearly 20mm.

What you must not forget though is the fact that nae develops a shortwave around wales and the midlands which enhances the precipitation whereas gfs doesnt!!jus had a look at the latest ecmwf and it looks very much like the nae/ukmo model!!so at the moment the snow event is looking a lot more likely than just all rain!!

[kmanmx]

What you must not forget though is the fact that nae develops a shortwave around wales and the midlands which enhances the precipitation whereas gfs doesnt!!jus had a look at the latest ecmwf and it looks very much like the nae/ukmo model!!so at the moment the snow event is looking a lot more likely than just all rain!!

I hope NAE is right, that would make it an event to remember for sure..

[Supacell]

I am heading up to the Peak District on Saturday for some final pictures and video before this spell ends. So I am hoping that there is a lot of snow still up there Saturday morning and it hasn't all been rained away as per GFS.

[Strider]

Anyone taking what the gfs shows over the high resolution models is clearly not sensible. The met office use nae as the basis for their forecasts and that is good enough for me. I think it has got most snow events this winter spot on, perhaps under estimating some light snow fall on a couple of occasions.

Therefore, I shall be using n a e as the major guidance for this event. Some snow seems inevitable: and for nottingham, this is the first time we have been in amber this cold spell. There could be quite a lot of snowfall, albeit very wet and transitional, clearing off by the end of the night!!

Actually to be pedantic they mainly use UKV for their short term forecasts (although in this case, the two are largely in agreement)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/ukv-improving-accuracy

[kev238]

Fair comment. What they definitely don't use is the g f s

They must place a fair degree of confidence in n a e as Ian fergusson often tweets about it and the latest guidance it offers, although tonight he has mentioned on another thread that the met office think it's version of events is an extreme version and likely to be moderated.

The met office text forecast on their site speaks of heavy and drifting snow for after dark tomorrow... Not seen that in a forecast for us this winter.

[andy_leics22]

Anyone taking what the gfs shows over the high resolution models is clearly not sensible. The met office use nae as the basis for their forecasts and that is good enough for me. I think it has got most snow events this winter spot on, perhaps under estimating some light snow fall on a couple of occasions.

Therefore, I shall be using n a e as the major guidance for this event. Some snow seems inevitable: and for nottingham, this is the first time we have been in amber this cold spell. There could be quite a lot of snowfall, albeit very wet and transitional, clearing off by the end of the night!!

What bothers me though Kev is that the Met/BBC have been wrong in these type of situations before. They made a major cock up a few years ago when they forecasted that it would snow over the whole of the West Midlands, East Midlands and north of the M4 in a similiar set up. The reality was... It arrived in Leicester around midnight and started as heavy rain and stayed that way. The only areas that saw snow were high ground in Yorkshire, so they got it quite badly wrong.

That day the GFS was forecasting that no where in the West Midlands or East Midlands would see snow and it got it spot on. The NAE and UKMO were wrong. I think this will be the case again sadly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Never write off GFS, 28th Dec 2010, everything was pointing to a E England snowfest, GFS went for pure rain, and it was pure rain

Andy this maybe event you mean, dont think there was any snow, even high levels

Edited January 24, 2013 by Gimmesomesnow

[Supacell]

It'll be interesting to see what the GFS 18z throws up, and then the 00z later on. Also, will the NAE tone down the snowfall or keep with the big snow event for tomorrow night?

[andy_leics22]

Never write off GFS, 28th Dec 2010, everything was pointing to a E England snowfest, GFS went for pure rain, and it was pure rain

Andy this maybe event you mean, dont think there was any snow, even high levels

Yeah that was another event I remember! The event I was referring to happened in December 2008 or 2009 I think, I had a screenshot of the forecast they had just before the event with Jay Wynne standing next to the BBC charts with snow covering all of West and East Yorkshire, West Midlands, East Midlands, even Wales. Yet in the end nobody saw snow apart from above 300m in Yorkshire.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah that was another event I remember! The event I was referring to happened in December 2008 or 2009 I think, I had a screenshot of the forecast they had just before the event with Jay Wynne standing next to the BBC charts with snow covering all of West and East Yorkshire, West Midlands, East Midlands, even Wales. Yet in the end nobody saw snow apart from above 300m in Yorkshire.

yes 4th Dec 2008,

[Polar Maritime]

Don't worry S, there will be plenty left on Saturday, hardly any loss really here.

[kev238]

It will be pretty obvious by around 4pm tomorrow I guess, if it is snowing in north west England, then it will snow here. Being in the amber warning zone does indicate a reasonable degree of confidence, though I do remember the event you are talking about.

[Supacell]

Don't worry S, there will be plenty left on Saturday, hardly any loss really here.

Well if NAE is correct you will be buried by Saturday lol.

[Polar Low]

Surprised by the very slight thaw here, expected to lose 100% cover but everything is still pretty deep away from the town centre.

Tomorrow looks good, enjoy the final ride of this cold spell folks.

[shaky]

Any news on nae!!

[andy_leics22]

NAE looks decent, GFS still not having any of it though.

My money is on the GFS.

[shaky]

So nae not backing down!!good stuff!!still forecasting about 15cms here in the east mids!!

[andy_leics22]

I really think the NAE has got this all wrong. It has some seriously low dew points for early Saturday morning, I really can't see these being accurate.

-5 to -3 dew point for the West Midlands, -2 widely for Central England?! really can't see it myself. The GFS is predicting something a lot different...

Granted the GFS has -2 dew points for some, but 0c dew point for the West Midlands compared to -5 that the NAE is predicting... That is quite a big difference.

[SL7]

Met Office have moved the heavy snow forecast tomorrow from 18:00 to 21:00 - the precipitation probability is >95%. The highest I've seen!

[Polar Low]

My money is on the GFS.

Yeah... because it's been so accurate this last 10-14 days.

Not saying it shouldn't be ruled out, but it's certainly more likely to go the way of NAE based on recent model performance- hence the current MetO forecasts.

[marksp]

well its gonner be heavy snow here, temps under cloud still -2.2.

still 6 to 10 inches on gardens and parks etc, been up to the tops today and saw tractor enter field with hay and the snow was over a foot deep, NO DRIFTS.

Some of the side roads and country lanes still have 12 inches of snow with 2 to 4 feet drifts, I even have 12 inches of snow at the bottom of the garden, and I my alt is 165 to 175 mtrs.

could see another 10 to 20 cms tommorow, definately has a good old 70s feel to frontal event, all you need is allevation and cold air emmbedded at the surface, YEAH it might not last long beacause the warm air wins out

but during the transition from cold to warmer air don;t halve bring some fun.

Hope we all see a good show tommorow but if you want to garantee it get up to the Peak District.

good luck to all

[Terminal Moraine]

The NMM high resolution model has dramatically increased the precipitation amount for this area on the latest run; not just for the Peak District but for the East Midlands generally.

Yesterday evening it was showing around 7-8 mm for my area, this morning that's increased to around 20mm.

If all that falls as snow.........

[Supacell]

Tonight will be the first Amber warning of the cold spell for my area and I am fully expecting a good dumping of snow. Higher parts near me and up into the Peak District should get an absolute pasting.

And tomorrow, I cannot see any rapid thaw with temperatures not rising much above 1-2c. Certainly, the hills should retain a deep blanket throughout the day tomorrow. With clear skies above and deep snow below, it makes perfect conditions for me taking some snow pictures