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The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ----->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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kev238 Enthusiast

kev238

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

I will be interested to hear if the members who are going for the g f s over all the other high resolution models still are this morning.

To me, this is a nailed on period of snowfall.. The n a e has been spot on recently, and just because it has made a mistake in the past, has no bearing on it's performance this time.

The met office don't even mention uncertainty in their forecasts, though I guess there is a little about how much rain will fall at the end of the band.

Sadly, it is a temporary band, but I love watching snowfall.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Having said that g f s seems to be showing some snow this evening now anyhow so perhaps the discussion is a bit irrelevant!

Indeed, we now have agreement across the board for a snow event this evening, probably arriving around 3pm and lasting until around midnight. Okay it may turn sleety on the lower ground for a short while before leaving but doubt that will do much damage to the 5-10cm of snow that will have fallen by this time. Carol says 20-25cm over the hills tonight, I can't wait for my Saturday hike :)

It looks cold again tomorrow too, and even though the cold spell apparently ends tonight, I would not call 1c with deep snow cover and the odd wintry shower as the end of this spell. For me, this cold spell ends on Saturday night.

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marksp Aficionado

marksp

Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
Posted

Well, like many have said an upgrade this morning from gfs as well, love their auto ppn prediction charts shows heavy snow, follwed by torrential snow, NOW that is somthing I would like to wittness

good.gif

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Indeed, we now have agreement across the board for a snow event this evening, probably arriving around 3pm and lasting until around midnight. Okay it may turn sleety on the lower ground for a short while before leaving but doubt that will do much damage to the 5-10cm of snow that will have fallen by this time. Carol says 20-25cm over the hills tonight, I can't wait for my Saturday hike smile.png

It looks cold again tomorrow too, and even though the cold spell apparently ends tonight, I would not call 1c with deep snow cover and the odd wintry shower as the end of this spell. For me, this cold spell ends on Saturday night.

Agree C regarding cold spell ending Sat night, It will turn frosty here after the front has moves through to, still around 25cm of snow here in the fields so god knows what we will end up with when this front moves through !

I guess anything up to 8/9 inches on top of that ! help.gif

Morning TM, what are your thought's for this area..?

Edit sorry just seen your post ^

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

As your snow event is a dead cert , I guess know one has looked or feels the need to mention the new nae?

Just to inform you it's a huge upgrade for the mids in general , heavier ppn , and gives me in the south mids (Gloucestershire) 11cm of snow. Massive upgrade peeps

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

Carol Kirkwood ramping like mad. All snow event in the East Midlands. Heavy snowfall Friday night followed by freeze. Snow day Saturday. Thaw Sunday. What a way to end the cold spell. I would post screenshots but cannot on the iPhone.

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lboaty Newbie

lboaty

Posted
  • Location: West Bridgford, Nottingham
  • Location: West Bridgford, Nottingham
Posted (edited)

According to BBC Breakfast the rush hour later is going to be a bit messy if this snow does materialise with the quantities suggested. I'm collecting my new car today which will be all nice and shiny. Shame I probably won't be able to see it properly on Saturday morning till the thaw has begun!

Edited by lboaty
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stevomatt Newbie

stevomatt

Posted
  • Location: wellingborough, northamptonshire
  • Location: wellingborough, northamptonshire
Posted

The band seems to be breaking up ?? Is this the main band that will give us the heavy snow fall ?

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

The band seems to be breaking up ?? Is this the main band that will give us the heavy snow fall ?

Nope and yes!!basically theres going to be another band behind it i think that joins with the band that is currently over west wales!!and then it will/should pep up a bit more!!
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Blackjack10 Newbie

Blackjack10

Posted
  • Location: East Midlands/South West
  • Location: East Midlands/South West
Posted (edited)

And the GFS now on board with the other models regarding snowfall falling tonight! The back edge might be a bit sleety, but the first 6 hours or so look like being snow for the majority of the region.

Enjoy the finale of this cold spell, and drive safe!

NAE Precip Charts:

13012512_2506.gif13012518_2506.gif

13012600_2506.gif13012606_2506.gif

And the GFS 06Z...

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prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Blackjack10
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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

Well heck, just me that things the Met Office predictions of 4 to 8cm are on the low side for our area ?

Please..please...PLEASE be snow - this will be a great event if it is.

Edited by kmanmx
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JonMillar Newbie

JonMillar

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

When are we due to see the heaviest snowfall? At the moment I have to go to the West Midlands and back between 5.00 and 8.00pm. Its not looking good for the return trip at the moment as I presume it is going to be pretty heavy up the M42 7.00-8.00pm.

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Blackjack10 Newbie

Blackjack10

Posted
  • Location: East Midlands/South West
  • Location: East Midlands/South West
Posted (edited)

Okay so dew point is at a very cold -4 right now but the temperature is already 1 degrees at 10:30 is that meant to happen!!

I was thinking this too. We didn't get anywhere near the forecasted lows for last night... -5 was forecast, didn't get below -1.5 here...

Met Office do keep temps in the region of 0 to 1 degrees throughout the rest of the day though!

Edited by Blackjack10
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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

When are we due to see the heaviest snowfall? At the moment I have to go to the West Midlands and back between 5.00 and 8.00pm. Its not looking good for the return trip at the moment as I presume it is going to be pretty heavy up the M42 7.00-8.00pm.

Yeah, I would not advise this trip at all. Looking at the models you might just make it back before the heavy stuff arrives but if the precip arrives just an hour or two early you are going to be in the thick of it for the next 6 hours.

Edited by kmanmx
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

I was thinking this too. We didn't get anywhere near the forecasted lows for last night... -5 was forecast, didn't get below -1.5 here...

M

Met Office do keep temps in the region of 0 to 1 degrees throughout the rest of the day though!

phew i was getting worried for a while!!
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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

I wonder if Met Office will upgrade the warnings later in the day to be more specific.

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

And the GFS now on board with the other models regarding snowfall falling tonight! The back edge might be a bit sleety, but the first 6 hours or so look like being snow for the majority of the region.

Enjoy the finale of this cold spell, and drive safe!

NAE Precip Charts:

13012512_2506.gif13012518_2506.gif

13012600_2506.gif13012606_2506.gif

And the GFS 06Z...

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

UKMO one step ahead as ever with this cold spell. An awesome performance (assuming this verifies). You have to hand it to them.

Well heck, just me that things the Met Office predictions of 4 to 8cm are on the low side for our area ?

Please..please...PLEASE be snow - this will be a great event if it is.

I think we could be looking at over 15cm over high ground in Leicestershire. Could be up to a foot lying by morning in areas like Bradgate Park which already have significant snow cover.

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

I agree about UKMO, I find it really good recently. Can't wait for a higher resolution upgrade in a few years.

Edited by kmanmx
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Ryan05 Rookie

Ryan05

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

well this current cold snap goes out with a bang, some seriously heavy snow could hit Nottingham this evening/overnight with one last snow day tomorrow before its all gone by sunday. Lets hope it comes off so I can give that sledge one last decent workout LOL

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

well with the snow cover of a couple of inches that we still have in northampton any heavy snow we get this evening will top that up very nicely. would be great to have another good few inches of heavy snow this evening to end this current cold snap with a bang rather than a whimper. Looking forward to window watching this evening, let's hope it's a good one.

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stevomatt Newbie

stevomatt

Posted
  • Location: wellingborough, northamptonshire
  • Location: wellingborough, northamptonshire
Posted

well with the snow cover of a couple of inches that we still have in northampton any heavy snow we get this evening will top that up very nicely. would be great to have another good few inches of heavy snow this evening to end this current cold snap with a bang rather than a whimper. Looking forward to window watching this evening, let's hope it's a good one.

Yes am hoping for the same before it melts on Monday

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