North West England Regional Discussion 23rd January 2013, 12z onwards

[Liam J]

My Accuweather app has me down for 6cm tomorrow, I can dream

[Snow free zone]

Thinking that lower lying western areas will get an hour or two of snow at best. Seen it so many times before and if that does happen it will crown this cold spell off perfectly.

[feb1991blizzard]

My Accuweather app has me down for 6cm tomorrow, I can dream

What does it have me down for ?

[cheshire snow]

What does it have me down for ?

Rain LOL

C.S,

[feb1991blizzard]

Oxberry even suggested winter over afterwards, i would suggest by accident given that the organisation that supplies her organisation with the data only issue a forecast out until 22nd feb, but because of her obsession with mild weather you never know!!

Forget the 18z NAE or GFS or UK4 run then or any updated warnings, this all hangs on Erouter's 1030pm bulletin.

[snowdrifter]

The cold will not move away and it will snow

heavily in the whole NW until March.

Edit: ...the 9th!

Edited January 24, 2013 by snowdrifter

[Liam J]

What does it have me down for ?

Lashings of rain lol

[Bartlett Low]

I'd go off local experience from similar events. Unfortunately for me that means and hour or two of snow, quickly turning to sleet then rain. On every breakdown event I can remember its been that way. Not ruling out decent falls for others but or me I'm sceptical.

[Lesley Johnson]

I'd go off local experience from similar events. Unfortunately for me that means and hour or two of snow, quickly turning to sleet then rain. On every breakdown event I can remember its been that way. Not ruling out decent falls for others but or me I'm sceptical.

me too We got nothing but a dusting

[Snowstorm nw]

Start as snow for about 30 mins then sleet and eventually rain😬😬😬😬

[Bartlett Low]

We need to all measure the time elapsed from first flake to the "drip drip drip" sound. I'd give it 2.5 hrs tops here.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Bartlett Low

[SparkleS]

Accu weathers got me down for more rain than snow starting at 2pm tomorrow. Although its never been entirely accurate

[feb1991blizzard]

Accu weathers got me down for more rain than snow starting at 2pm tomorrow. Although its never been entirely accurate

i dont know what your altitude is and that will definately be a factor in these frontal snow to rain events, i am not sure if accuweather is another one of those automated things based on the GFS, if it is then yes you will be down for a rainfest as the GFS is poor, other models however show snow lasting longer, it will probably have turned to sleet where you are in the evening but based on the MO and BBC charts, you should get a covering first, i think we should all wait until the overnight runs before we can come to a definate conclusion.

[damianslaw]

Going from past experience we tend to do well for snow in such set ups thanks to evaporative cooling aided by Local topography, looks like central and East and se lakes will end up the snowiest part of the region, and only a slow thaw will occur sat, could end up a bonus snow day

[feb1991blizzard]

Going from past experience we tend to do well for snow in such set ups thanks to evaporative cooling aided by Local topography, looks like central and East and se lakes will end up the snowiest part of the region, and only a slow thaw will occur sat, could end up a bonus snow day

Going on the model runs i would tend to agree, however, Liam Dutton's forecast for Saturday suggested temps of 5 or 6c for most of our region, although even with forecaster interpretation, estimations do seem to be to high generally in these type of setups going on past experiences

[greybing]

I'd go off local experience from similar events. Unfortunately for me that means and hour or two of snow, quickly turning to sleet then rain. On every breakdown event I can remember its been that way. Not ruling out decent falls for others but or me I'm sceptical.

Yes,the same here though you can get a decent covering of a few inches from my experience. Edited January 24, 2013 by greybing

[Mountain Snow]

Going from past experience we tend to do well for snow in such set ups thanks to evaporative cooling aided by Local topography, looks like central and East and se lakes will end up the snowiest part of the region, and only a slow thaw will occur sat, could end up a bonus snow day

I do hope your right, would be nice to see a decent fall of snow this winter, although I'm not getting my hopes up!

Was up Helvellyn today, quite a poor cover up there considering the length of this cold spell and the amounts other parts of the country have had. Should be a large amount up there tomorrow, hopefully the mild spell is brief, so the snow is preserved.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

the dreaded snow to rain scenario,does nothing for me to be honest,nothing worse than a few hours of lovely snow being washed into a puddle by the atlantic.

WE live in hope of something wintry in feb but hand on hear its going to be the 2nd week of feb at the earliest,who is going to put money on a hge greeny high come april? thats my punt anyway

[manonthegrassyknoll]

Going from past experience we tend to do well for snow in such set ups thanks to evaporative cooling aided by Local topography, looks like central and East and se lakes will end up the snowiest part of the region, and only a slow thaw will occur sat, could end up a bonus snow day

I've got the day off tomorrow, what time do you think it will start snowing here..? or is it all "nowcasting" from here on in..

[feb1991blizzard]

the dreaded snow to rain scenario,does nothing for me to be honest,nothing worse than a few hours of lovely snow being washed into a puddle by the atlantic.

WE live in hope of something wintry in feb but hand on hear its going to be the 2nd week of feb at the earliest,who is going to put money on a hge greeny high come april? thats my punt anyway

A greeny high can still deliever for us in April though.

[Snowstorm nw]

You mean heavy sleet about 3 onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

the dreaded snow to rain scenario,does nothing for me to be honest,nothing worse than a few hours of lovely snow being washed into a puddle by the atlantic.

WE live in hope of something wintry in feb but hand on hear its going to be the 2nd week of feb at the earliest,who is going to put money on a hge greeny high come april? thats my punt anyway

Surely you would enjoy a real belting blizzard tommorow even if it turned to rain, at least a bit of fun anyway.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Surely you would enjoy a real belting blizzard tommorow even if it turned to rain, at least a bit of fun anyway.

no,i enjoy a blizzard when i know the cover will last a day or two.When its all being washed away the same day it does nothing for me at all.

Thats just my opinion though.

[swainclubber]

no,i enjoy a blizzard when i know the cover will last a day or two.When its all being washed away the same day it does nothing for me at all.

Thats just my opinion though.

I'm the same. not excited in the least. looking forward to seeing snow but a snow to rain event doesn't appeal. I'd rather have just rain than the tease.

[feb1991blizzard]

no,i enjoy a blizzard when i know the cover will last a day or two.When its all being washed away the same day it does nothing for me at all.

Thats just my opinion though.

Its not ideal but as there is a chance that your assesment of the rest of winter will not be far off then i will take one last hurrah, i am worried by the Met office's sudden change, its not the Met 30 dayer on its own that bothers me as they would not in past times come on board anyway until more certainty, however, its the fact that they suggested cold mid feb and then downgraded, this coupled with the fact that we know that they dont just go on EC32 anymore and their own models now include higher levels of the atmosphere and the fact that they even stated that they pay a lot of attention to the stratosphere suggests that they have not downgraded this forecast lightly, i still dont think that this is as dyer a situation as feb 6th when they downgraded the 30 dayer though and i am certainly not giving up yet.