wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[andymusic]

Andy I done a bit of reading of late and quite a lot of people think as we enter feb the chances of snow in southern Britain become less and less as the days go on, but Scotland still good for snow even into March. I know we have had bad weather in feb and it has lasted. I think 1978 was feb (must have been) old 5 nations Wales v Scotland game it started on. and that blizzard lasted on the ground. so why have I been reading that feb isn't so good for snow and cold? I know the nights are getting lighter but cold is cold and if it comes in then winter is still here. that's all I really hope is we have a nice summer as driving around when its raining its clear there is no more room in the ground for this rain and we need some dry weather or there will be much more flooding.

trouble is for the next 30 years we are on a slope of global cooling - this will mean colder snowier winters and cooler wetter summers - generally - not every year and not all the time - but generally!

edit:- mind you saying that their is the added bonus that blocking as a general theme seems to be more prevelant now - which could bode well for the odd summer period - a blocking high in the right place at the right time could actually create a beautifully hot summer period - stopping the atlantic dropping it's rain on us and keeping us dry - so that's something we can hope for

Edited January 29, 2013 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

cheers Andy fingers crossed the wetter summers will not happen as it is quite scary the amount of water that is about right now

[CLH the red dragon]

trouble is for the next 30 years we are on a slope of global cooling -

Save that the Article in which that was given so much prominence went on to rebut its own conclusions

[andymusic]

Save that the Article in which that was given so much prominence went on to rebut its own conclusions

all to do with the sun - gone quiet and will be quiet now for some time to come leading to cooling - you'd better believe it - cause it's true! - the sun is the only thing that governs temps on this earth of ours!

[welshgritter]

snow next week anyone?

[Bobby]

Been throwing it down almost non-stop here over the past day or two. 70mm or so since Friday and plenty more to come it seems.

[welshwizard]

snow next week anyone?

Better than this bloody rain, i cant stand the rain. and what we are having again now is way over the top ha ha, the roads are terrible out there and drains cant take the amount of water and guess what? yes much more tonight. but its going to be sunny tommor so that's good. I saw the weather on tv and they said the weekend could be colder but didn't say anything about snow, bit early yet anyway for them to say about snow. DRY WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUN PLEASE.

[andymusic]

Better than this bloody rain, i cant stand the rain. and what we are having again now is way over the top ha ha, the roads are terrible out there and drains cant take the amount of water and guess what? yes much more tonight. but its going to be sunny tommor so that's good. I saw the weather on tv and they said the weekend could be colder but didn't say anything about snow, bit early yet anyway for them to say about snow. DRY WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUN PLEASE.

I can't stand the rain - on my window - Tina Turner - and yes my advise to anyone right now if you want some sunshine - FLY SOUTH lol

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0005 Tue 29 Jan to 0600 Wed 30 Jan

Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales

Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales : Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Swansea, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Gwynedd valid from 0005 Fri 01 Feb to 2359 Fri 01 Feb

Yellow Warning of Wind for Wales

Yellow Warning of Wind for Wales : Bridgend, Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Blaenau Gwent, Carmarthenshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Powys, Torfaen, Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Conwy, Isle of Anglesey, Denbighshire, Wrexham & Flintshire valid from 0900 Wed 30 Jan to 1800 Wed 30 Jan

Edited January 29, 2013 by andymusic

[tinybill]

my rain alarm program is picking up torrential rain for wales

[blackrose73]

my rain alarm program is picking up torrential rain for wales

It hasn't stopped all day, absolutely lashing down! I've had a gobful of it!

[dbaloo]

wish me luck.im going to take the dog for a walk in rain and wind that really needs to go away now as the ground cant take anymore, If i'm not back in 45 mins.....................just wait longer!

[dbaloo]

what a walk.what we really need is a few weeks of dry weather.i dont know how much more rain is forecast after today but the amount of water holding on the fields where i have just been is unreal

[Ginkrots]

Rained for most of the day in S Wales. Lot's of surface flooding in Monmouthshire, some fields have turned into temporary lakes!

[whiskers]

Same here garden waterlogged,panel missing out of my greenhouse,Bring back the snow! So what's happening with this weekend? Does anybody know? Where's andy?Andy,are we having snow?

[J10]

Just one more snow event would be great now!

A northwesterly snow streamer would do me fine now...just give me a night of heavy snow showers and around 6 inches by morning ill be very happy with this winter then.

This does seem very possible from the models, Also as well as this after today, winds more of a westerly/North Westerly rather than south Westerly, so with High Pressure closer to the south west perhaps a little bit drier as well.

[keithlucky]

Yes slightly different wind direction but wintery showers still on for Saturday

[J10]

Yes slightly different wind direction but wintery showers still on for Saturday

Not convinced for weekends potential, but next week onwards some potential is there.

[whiskers]

What sort of potential,is it like we had last week , or just cold?

[Marcus_surfer]

This does seem very possible from the models, Also as well as this after today, winds more of a westerly/North Westerly rather than south Westerly, so with High Pressure closer to the south west perhaps a little bit drier as well.

That would be nice, can't remember last time we had a decent northwesterly but when they do deliver they are great here.

[J10]

That would be nice, can't remember last time we had a decent northwesterly but when they do deliver they are great here.

Last time Was December 2010, in the mid 2000s they seemed common, but not as many since then.

[Marcus_surfer]

Last time Was December 2010, in the mid 2000s they seemed common, but not as many since then.

Yes December 2010 was good I remember very late at night a Pembrokeshire dangler set up and we had some very heavy snow showers, dew points, temperatures and the ground temperature were all very favourable for good accumulations of snow. Quite disappointed with the snow we had last week...yes it was great but if we had the ground temperatures lower we would have had a lot more accumulated snow. Still waiting for a cold, dry, frosty, sunny spell, as you are also waiting for !

[mikeocarroll]

Not convinced for weekends potential, but next week onwards some potential is there.

I reckon that chart posted by Keith would produce some back edge snow for north Wales and high ground in mid & south wales, but it is an extremely marginal situation (for a change ;-)).

Also a poss of snow for the north coast on Saturday but pretty dry otherwise I would think.

As you say potential next week with a NWerly flow, uppers not mega cold but something to look forward to :

[TonyH]

The low for Friday is potentially nasty as it tracks across Wales, a very sharp temperature contrast on latest GFS from 11c in S Wales to 0c in Snowdonia at 1500, also a lot of rain, with hill snow for mid and north Wales.

Similar on ECM:

Tracks further south on Fax:

Edited January 29, 2013 by TonyH

[andymusic]

What sort of potential,is it like we had last week , or just cold?

looks to me like a lickle bit of cold/snow weather the weekend - friday/saturday - but then major cold will return tuesday/wednesday next week for at least a week!

Edited January 29, 2013 by andymusic

[bluenose1000]

How does everyone rate this winter in terms of cold weather? I think it has just been a winter with cold wintry weather snaps nothing groundbreaking, maybe I'm wrong but I suppose its where you happen to live. I do think that when I was younger during thE 80s we had far more severe winters in terms of snow fall and cold but perhaps that was just my perception at that time?? Basically I think its been 4 out of 10 this year lol in my area only scraped the car of frost 3 or 4 times upto now...