wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[Wilxy]

Looks like round 2 for you lot good luck had a great storm here earlier some very close strikes that cut the power great for january.

[Panayiotis]

Possible super cell thunderstorms in the B.Channel, they seem to be making landfall in the next 10-20mins, who ever they hit, it will be severe!

[Pamela Davies]

What's a super cell??? It don't sound to nice hope it holds off till hubby gets in am bricking it now : (

[Marcus_surfer]

Possible super cell thunderstorms in the B.Channel, they seem to be making landfall in the next 10-20mins, who ever they hit, it will be severe!

Bit extreme they are only producing a flash or two.

[Panayiotis]

Bit extreme they are only producing a flash or two.

Yes they seem to have weakened now, the first circle I labelled was similar to this morning's thunderstorm which passed just north of my area, which was classed as a potential super cell thunderstorm.

[andymusic]

Mega rumblings approaching me now - "expecting the worst but hoping for the best" - will turn off gear if I think I'm under threat - after all being on the top of a mountain ain't good in these conditions - and I've already blown a computer in the past because of lightning!

[Panayiotis]

What's a super cell??? It don't sound to nice hope it holds off till hubby gets in am bricking it now : (

Dont worry they have weakened but the showers near Barry are still heavy..

[J10]

Just had near death experience driving back from Cardiff on m48,very intense hail leaving an inch of hail across the carriageway causing 4 cars to spin coming the other way and me almost hitting the centre barrier .temp went from 7 to 3 deg in a mile !! lightening was awesome .

Glad you are OK

[mickeyflyn]

Thank you all for your concern

[Panayiotis]

Most showers which looked intense have now weakened thankfully, must be something to do with it being cooler in land. I hope tomorrow we will see more thunderstorms similar to what we had earlier in the day!

[Marcus_surfer]

Down to 1.9c clear spells calm

[Wilxy]

Most showers which looked intense have now weakened thankfully, must be something to do with it being cooler in land. I hope tomorrow we will see more thunderstorms similar to what we had earlier in the day!

Yeah there is a mention of some thundery showers following in behind main front tomorrow so intresting again tomorrow for many

[andymusic]

looks like the cold/snowy stuff may actually get to us a little earlier than the 6th - showing now for this saturday morning - 2nd feb

[whiskers]

Yippee! Missing the white stuff so much! What a January bizarre weather,not going to complain though

[welshwizard]

sounds like today and tommor is going to be very wet,just down the road from me had flooding on sat night and just saw Pontypridd on the news it looked very bad. I think others areas could be the same today as the grounds are full and with all rain forecast not looking good. can you imagine if one of these storms of rain had come in as snow we would be stuck for weeks, I think we was quite lucky that didn't happen. that's what must have happened back in 82 when we saw extreme amounts of snow. am I correct in thinking that when the cold is over us that these storms are held out in the atlantic and the chances of these making it over to us are slim? Andy I was hoping for a bit longer for the snow to come back but I think I would rather the snow come now than flooding and at this rate some are going to have flooding over the next few days

[mikeocarroll]

There is some chance of snow as early as Friday night / Saturday morning from a feature running along the Channel, below on the GFS:

The ECM also shows this feature, but further east and not so good at pulling in the colder uppers:

UKMO on the other hand doesn't show this feature at all. IF the feature does show up and tracks up the Channel then there's a good possibility of some sleet and snow for us on its northern flank, perhaps rain turning to snow on the back edge. Uppers won't be particular good but cold surface air should be sucked in from the continent. Overnight timing of the GFS would be beneficial.

It wouldn't be long lasting cold though, warm up would soon follow, all models seem to show a cool semi-zonal outlook for the next 10 days or so, with shots of polar maritime air from the NW bringing brief wintry spells.

In the longer-term the GFS ensembles look pretty good for cold returning (though it's always best to take all longer-term output with a pinch of salt, IMO):

[Bobby]

Amber warning out from the Met Office for parts of S Wales for heavy rain and flooding

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Throwing it down here, winds getting strong too.

[TonyH]

Sferics showing along a line through Anglesey.

Really heavy rain and strong winds, I got drenched in Carmarthen earlier, surprised only 8mm has fell here at home.

[matty lfc]

Unbelievably windy up here at the moment and lashing down

[welshgritter]

Am i correct in saying a return of the cold from the 8th??? Lets open the debate......

P.s....before anymore says anything - I just look @ loads of different sources of information. (pure amature).

[keithlucky]

Amber warning out from the Met Office for parts of S Wales for heavy rain and flooding

http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

Throwing it down here, winds getting strong too.

Another very poor forecast from the met office today supposed to rain constantly all day with a brief lull with further rain tomorrow talk of 3 inc in places totally OTT forecast .

[keithlucky]

Quite a wintry feel with wintry showers pushing south Friday night into Saturday further wintry showers Saturday

Edited January 28, 2013 by keithlucky

[Marcus_surfer]

Just one more snow event would be great now!

A northwesterly snow streamer would do me fine now...just give me a night of heavy snow showers and around 6 inches by morning ill be very happy with this winter then.

[andymusic]

Just one more snow event would be great now!

A northwesterly snow streamer would do me fine now...just give me a night of heavy snow showers and around 6 inches by morning ill be very happy with this winter then.

Think we're gonna get more than one event - snows coming back - and I think it's gonna come back even stronger than before - watch out - this could be amazingly brutal - really worrying! - hope I'm wrong!

Edited January 29, 2013 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

Think we're gonna get more than one event - snows coming back - and I think it's gonna come back even stronger than before - watch out - this could be amazingly brutal - really worrying! - hope I'm wrong!

Andy I done a bit of reading of late and quite a lot of people think as we enter feb the chances of snow in southern Britain become less and less as the days go on, but Scotland still good for snow even into March. I know we have had bad weather in feb and it has lasted. I think 1978 was feb (must have been) old 5 nations Wales v Scotland game it started on. and that blizzard lasted on the ground. so why have I been reading that feb isn't so good for snow and cold? I know the nights are getting lighter but cold is cold and if it comes in then winter is still here. that's all I really hope is we have a nice summer as driving around when its raining its clear there is no more room in the ground for this rain and we need some dry weather or there will be much more flooding.