scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[scottishandy]

I'll be satisfied for a couple of decades when I see old-school Highland standards!

Nethy Bridge?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'll be satisfied for a couple of decades when I see old-school Highland standards!

Carrbridge - where I grew up. That's the Cairn Hotel and there's a fair chance I know the woman (you can just about see) in the photo. Keep meaning to ask if it is her.

Edited January 28, 2013 by scottish skier

[onemanmows]

That's suitably impresive, that would be more exceptionally brilliant for me than normal. Still time to book one for this winter?

[Coast]

Scots braced for heavy rain and strong winds as forecasters issue flood alerts

27 Jan 2013 00:01

AS the big freeze begins to thaw, the MET office has warned melting snow could add around an inch of water to the heavy rainfall predicted across the country.

SCOTS have been put on flood alert after forecasters yesterday warned of a double whammy of a big thaw and heavy rain across the country. Weather experts said parts of the country could see almost two inches of rain falling in 24 hours.The Met Office and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency said some areas may suffer flooding as melting snow could add an inch of water to the rainfall.

Strong winds and gales have also been predicted for next week, with gusts up to 70mph forecast for south-west Scotland. Met Office forecaster Helen Waite said: “We have rain arriving overnight, which is moving eastwards across Scotland. The main band will clear away in the early morning, followed by showers throughout the day.

“Heavy rain and the snow melt will create more risk of localised flooding. “Another band of rain and strong winds should move away by Sunday night, followed by brief showery spells on Monday and Tuesday. “It is going to be unsettled with stormy weather over the coming week. Showers could be very heavy in the north-west, where there is potential for gales.â€

The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for flooding across most of Scotland.

SEPA also issued flood alerts for the Borders, Argyll and Bute, Ayrshire and Arran and Dumfries and Galloway. Hydrology manager David Faichney said: “The arrival of milder temperatures will lead to a thaw of low-lying snow in many places, which will result in a rise in river levels across the country. “No significant flooding is expected from larger rivers. “However, some localised flooding may occur from surface water and smaller watercourses in Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders area, where the thaw is expected to be greatest and the rainfall heaviest. “The north and east of Scotland are forecast to experience a gentler thaw and less rainfall than the south and west of the country during this period, with the risk of flooding in these areas very low.â€

Climbers were warned of a high avalanche risk in Glencoe, Lochaber and Creag Meagaidh. Mountain rescue workers were called out overnight to check on hundreds of drivers stuck in the snow on the M6 in Lancashire.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-braced-for-heavy-rain-and-strong-1558418

[Ravelin]

Well we're just about hanging onto the snow, for now. Paths and roads are clear again but the grass is generally still covered, although you can just about start to see it in places in our garden. Quite impressed at how quickly it's thawed, especially overnight into Sunday morning, without really turning into the normal deep slush hell.

Now I'd reluctantly rather it went so that the lads can get a game or two of football completed before we get another cold spell. It can stay on the hills though, especially the ski slopes.

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.dailyreco...-strong-1558418

Water off a ducks back that ^ Not exactly something we're not used to.

[blitzen]

Certainly hammering down here at the moment.

[Cheggers]

Vile day here, but as BFT has stated, we are used to it.

While it is quiet some informative reading...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/25/norwegian_co2_warming_shocker/

[mistyqueen]

Oh B*GGER! We had a 60 mph gust a wee while back, which blew the trailer right into the side of my car. We now have a rather large hole in the rear door! Noo, where's that insurance policy?

[Kerwin]

getting very windy and wet here........

[Hairy Celt]

The radar earlier showed a band of heavy rain heading this way from the SW but as usual, it got to the firth and dissipated (for want of a better word). So just a breezy, mild day with no more than the odd spot of rain to dampen the ground.

GFS seems to continue to show a largely Atlantic-dominated set up but certainly there are hints of a northerly outbreak or two. Yeehar.

[Sunny Leith]

That was bizarre. Just a couple of hundred yards from the front door the heavens opened and then immediately followed by about 30-45 seconds worth of the most intense hail I've seen in several massive downdrafts - set off car alarms and everything...then stooped just as suddenly.. Turbulent above !

Edited January 28, 2013 by by-tor

[lorenzo]

Similar story here BT, couple of awesome cloudbursts on the way home this evening.

Radar looking absolutely loaded and some tasty cells about.

Satrep analysis from this afternoon indicates a continued eventful evening..

Edited January 28, 2013 by lorenzo

[sammie]

That was bizarre. Just a couple of hundred yards from the front door the heavens opened and then immediately followed by about 30-45 seconds worth of the most intense hail I've seen in several massive downdrafts - set off car alarms and everything...then stooped just as suddenly.. Turbulent above !

Yip this happened to me, I was waiting for a bus on princes street at that time. Next thing I know wham. I was insane. I've never seen anything like it, even the hail was big it was a good 4mm in diameter.

[101_North]

It was a pleasure to cycle home tonight

[Highland Snow]

Between 18.00 and 18.30 the temperature went up from 4.0C to 6.7C (today's Maximum).

Temperature rise coincided with a brief downpour.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Rain Today broken -

HTTP Error 500 (Internal Server Error): An unexpected condition was encountered while the server was attempting to fulfil the request.

Water got into the innards of the site???

[NorthYorksWeather]

Currently in Braemar, Scotland, no thaw here just yet of around 1.5ft of snow. Some incredible scenery here. Had mainly sleet today but snow over the higher passes has blocked the roads. Weather much more intersting than Yorkshire

[edo]

Oh it's all gone quiet over here...this time last week if had not been on for 20 hours u missed about 20 pages.....too busy to look at models and too sensible to look in MT so who's gonna take one for the team and summarise the model output...I see Matt Hugo on twitter saying things trending to colder around 7th/8th

[Snooz]

can't do a model summary, but did venture into MT earlier, 'twas already alternating between pessimism/optimism but being as everyone was talking 240+ I figured not much exciting (i.e. snaw, showing for South) - then I saw a chart that did show a brief possible northerly spell for NE Scotland this Friday (of course it wasn't mentioned in MT )..I also have no idea if it was just one run, or just a blip.. the overall consensus seemed to be pointing at getting cooler in about 10 days which of course is FI so I gave up and am also waiting for our Local Gurus summaries t.i.a.

[Highland Snow]

Oh it's all gone quiet over here...this time last week if had not been on for 20 hours u missed about 20 pages.....too busy to look at models and too sensible to look in MT so who's gonna take one for the team and summarise the model output...I see Matt Hugo on twitter saying things trending to colder around 7th/8th

Yes Edo TEITS, LSS et al favouring cold from T240.

Good evening. Here is the evening look at the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Monday January 28th 2013.

All models show the rest of this working week as being unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times for all. Tomorrow looks particularly wet as a warm front scoots NE over the UK followed by a cold front late in the day, all bringing spells of rain in a gale force SW wind. At least it will be mild in the South for a time through the day. Through Wednesday and Thursday more showery weather is likely but some of these will be heavy and prolonged especially on Thursday. By Friday a new wave depression or deeper Low ensures the end of the working week stays unsettled and wet, especially in the South before a drier and colder interlude feeds down from the NW over the weekend with a welcome 24-48 hours of dry and rather chilly weather over the weekend with a slight overnight frost likely for many.

GFS then brings milder maritime air down over the UK through Sunday with rather cloudy and benign conditions early next week with some light rain possible in the North for a time as a front passes by bringing slightly colder air back to the NE by midweek. FI tonight repeats the process of weak troughs toppling SE over the UK at times followed by a toppling ridge too for most if not all of its latter stage output as High pressure lies close to the SW for most of this time. At least the SW would have a chance to dry up somewhat as only small amounts of rain would occur here.

The GFS Ensembles show a gentle cooling to levels just below the long term mean as a more NW influence to the winds over the UK take hold next week. There is little evidence of any significant cold shown on tonight's output from GFS members for the UK though no really mild weather is likely either. Amounts of rain will reduce beyond this week as the displaced Azores High to the SW of the UK diverts the majority of frontal rains towards Europe.

The Jet Stream shows the flow blowing strongly over the UK ridging North over the Atlantic later this week over the top of the Azores High before returning South over the UK.

UKMO for midday on Sunday shows a strong Anticyclone to the SW of the UK, Northeast of the Azores. A warm front is shown crossing the UK from the West through the day. The likely weather would be an early frost in the East and South giving way to milder and drizzly weather as the weak warm front crosses East through the UK later in the day.

ECM tonight shows a much more potent Low on Friday than the other models with rain and gales in the South giving way to colder and brighter conditions to start the weekend. The overall pattern is back on track by Sunday with ECM following UKMO in bringing a warm front East over the UK on Sunday with rain and drizzle on recovering temperatures due to a large and strong Azores Anticyclone parked to the SW of Britain. Later in the run a few days of milder Atlantic Westerlies bring rain at times for many before a deep Low moves across the Atlantic to Scotland and on Day 10 across to NE England. Cold NW winds are then shown to sweep South over all areas with wintry showers for all the hills and low ground too in the North.

In Summary tonight the pattern look like changing a little as we move into next week. After this weeks relatively mild, windy and wet conditions a change to rather colder conditions looks likely next week . Of more importance to lower lying locations some of the output suggests rather drier conditions, especially to the SW where winds blowing from the NW around a displaced Azores High keep meaningful troughs away, but further North and East those same troughs bring some rain and wintry showers at times with a more full blooded attempt at something more universally cold for the UK from ECM in 10 days time. We really do need that Azores High to weaken or become displaced further NW or West as well as ridging North to allow the Jet flow to buckle, weaken and to relocate further South, something that ECM is showing on that day 10 chart.

Im inclined to agree more with Steve Murr in the position reached about sustained and persistent cold developing and the significant correlators. I find this thread interesting and scientific enough to understand, but I never really feel the urge to contribute. But in the years I have followed this there seem to be certain types of posters...those who say what shows and those who like to predict what may show once the realms of 'reliable' step outside the model time frame.

I.e. a good number will look at T120...T196 and suggest a way forward from that which is contrary to what the models may show whereas others will do a decent model summary and not really delve too much in to alternative evolutions.

Its an interesting read, but when the two collide you often get the conundrum of...half saying the models are zonal, flat and mild for the next few days and others saying, ah but if the jet off canada had a slightly steeper angle and the AH ridged jut slightly further north its game on.

I think whats important as well is context. I saw some posts getting on for a fortnight ago that suggested a prolonged and sever cold spell that contingencies should be put in place. Thats fine, but prolonged to many means more than a few days. Prolonged mild to me means 2-3 weeks, maybe more, so I can see why people would sway when its said the other way. Then you have others who post monumentally technical post that are on the periphery of my level of understanding that are related back to basic synoptics in no manner at all. I would suspect half of readers would say, 'so what if the GWO is in Phase 8. What effect does the MJO have on the UK when a Bartlett can ruin winter.

As for the models, they are decidedly not showing a huge amount of potential for sustained cold and thats what they show. I can see the potential for ridging to Greenland, its been hinted at a fair few times in the last few model runs...but none to fruition in the reliable timeframe and I agree. Many who i regard as experts on here said a 2-5 day mild blip before a quick reload from the NE...apologies, but the models dont show that so come out, say why you believed what you did and what went wrong in modelling terms or otherwise (internal thought) so that we can all believe we dont just sing our praises when we are correct.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Highland Snow

[Hairy Celt]

can't do a model summary, but did venture into MT earlier, 'twas already alternating between pessimism/optimism but being as everyone was talking 240+ I figured not much exciting (i.e. snaw, showing for South) - then I saw a chart that did show a brief possible northerly spell for NE Scotland this Friday (of course it wasn't mentioned in MT )..I also have no idea if it was just one run, or just a blip.. the overall consensus seemed to be pointing at getting cooler in about 10 days which of course is FI so I gave up and am also waiting for our Local Gurus summaries t.i.a.

I had a look at the MT earlier and there seemed to be a spat between some of the long-toothed ones, as per usual when there's no sign of snow south of the Pennines. Some of those guys ought to check their blood sugar levels before going online...

I reckon the next week will give some interest for us in the Scottish region with some blustery spells and more whiteness over the hills; I just hope Wednesday's blow doesn't get out of hand on the north coast...

[lorenzo]

Few more things to roll out today still, CPC update, MJO Update, ECM Ensembles then the pub run to see if any trend can be fathomed or simply for fun post 216 hrs to see what wild ensembles it serves up due to lack of a vortex over the Candian side of the hemisphere!

At present going by GP post regarding GWO and the resultant key pattern from this teleconnector either being meridional or flat we are at an interesting place on the models. Steve makes valid reference to the loading pattern for sustained blocking not showing its hand and a strongly cold evolution being an outside bet.

The other analogs within the MJO indicate a more blocked out look than the transient topple variety, Chiono highlighted I think yesterday it is one of the strongest disconnects witnessed between the MJO pattern and what is visible on the models.

Can ECM morph from this unyielding pattern to something looking more keen to ridge North.

Blast of cold uppers at 120 hours on ECM, charts either side of this show just how fleeting this is, GFS 12 hours quicker

here.

As HC mentioned another of Mondy's beasties barrelling at us very soon...

Edited January 28, 2013 by lorenzo

[Cheggers]

In the closer time frame what are peoples thoughts on tomorrows low inbound? I ask as I am again doing a Liverpool run, so will be on the M6 \ M74 late afternoon early evening tomorrow.

[lorenzo]

In the closer time frame what are peoples thoughts on tomorrows low inbound? I ask as I am again doing a Liverpool run, so will be on the M6 \ M74 late afternoon early evening tomorrow.

Lifted a couple of wind gust charts from NMM. Tuesday looks like cranking up later in the evening.

, the track illustrated here holding the feature due west of Scotland.

1600 then 2100 - Gusts

1600 then 2100 - Windspeed

Core of the system at 956mb on approach weakening to 960/964 mb as it passes North.