scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Cheggers]

Lifted a couple of wind gust charts from NMM. Tuesday looks like cranking up later in the evening.

, the track illustrated here holding the feature due west of Scotland.

1600 then 2100 - Gusts

1600 then 2100 - Windspeed

Core of the system at 956mb on approach weakening to 960/964 mb as it passes North.

Cheers Lorenzo, not as bad as I was expecting, although spare a thought for MistyQueen on Skye and other Islanders looking at those charts.

PS, why this service is still funded by charity is beyond me!!! Hang head in shame government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-21235283

Edited January 28, 2013 by Cheggers

[lorenzo]

Absolutely and only yellow warnings out at present from Met Office, would imagine upgraded to Amber at very least when reviewed with gusts at that speed.

[Hairy Celt]

Absolutely and only yellow warnings out at present from Met Office, would imagine upgraded to Amber at very least when reviewed with gusts at that speed.

wouldn't bank on it...

[BurntFishTrousers]

Why we should all be grateful for Lifeboat crews:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-21235283

Fckn tow rope snapped twice in those seas...ouch.

[edo]

Cheers HS snooz HC and Lorenzo u have fulfilled my needs and much appreciated...work pressures and dealing with the kids mean little time the last couple of days so the cherry picking of worthwhile posts and your own analysis is just the ticket

[BurntFishTrousers]

So, after 5 mins of long-windedness, registered with SEPA for their new Forth/Tay coastal flooding alerts:

SEPA has improved the coastal flood warning service available for the Firth of Forth and Tay areas. We have launched a number of new flood warning schemes meaning you can get more targeted, better, advance flood warnings for coastal flooding around the Firth of Forth and Tay estuaries. A total of 28 new coastal flood warning schemes have been installed, giving approximately 12,000 people better warning of coastal flooding in their area. To sign up for free coastal flood warnings for these areas visit our webpages here.

http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/be_flood_aware/types_of_flooding/coastal_flooding.aspx

[LomondSnowstorm]

If you're reading the MT with a mix of confusion, hope and despair, well join the club! A mix of postings on there tonight as ever but the gist of it looks to me to be much the same as it has been for the last 48 hours or so - getting colder at the weekend from the north,a little milder into the start of next week again but after that a very much enhanced signal developing for the transient Azores - mid Atlantic heights to finally make the leap of faith up to Greenland as the vortex weakens once more and the hemispheric pattern amplifies:

If it did, that would bring one heck of an intense northerly or northeasterly or even northwesterly in before some kind of cold trough solution sets up and we would be properly in the freezer.

Worth noting also that many people do not live in northern France and the Benelux and might be wondering if there's a chance of seeing some of the white stuff in the nearish future. Obviously hard to call at this stage but there are a few possible mesoscale features, including a classic 'kink' from the GFS:

(would most likely be rain to snow rather than all snow but with a cold front it could be quite active):

and, low and behold, for the first time in a long time for me I think, a ground frost on Saturday morning:

It has that look of a typical toppler northerly, which would only really keep NL and co happy for snow showers, but on the plus side at least it would likely be sunny for most, certainly for the sun-starved east:

[lorenzo]

This morning shows the Atlantic Beastie at 954 tracking past.

Also as Nick S spotted last night a tasty Fax for the weekend, areas without the white stuff could do well out of this.

Had a glance through the EC32 update and mid -atlantic heights a clear solution, hints of height rises to the NE and potential for another 'that ECM' run to crop up perhaps Thursday onwards.

Very strong signal for lower temps through 4th -10th Feb then continuing trend for lower temps grows in following period through to Feb 18th. PPN anomaly indicative of that mid-Atlantic high and also a Scandi block similar to the one visible on this CPC chart.

Models edging along nicely now, steadily more cold shots beginning to appear. would be great if that ECM did re-appear. Northerly solutions looking the favourite now..

[Northernlights]

Currently dull here with a moderate south wind and 6.5c. Very dramatic red sunrise this morning too.

Notice that several members in the model thread are writing off any more winter cold and snow except for the hills in the north of the UK and low ground in the North of Scotland.

Perhaps not the the most diplomatic time to mention that some members are nearly 600 miles nearer the Arctic Circle than they are and will always stand a better chance of cold. I apologise in advance.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Northernlights

[mistyqueen]

Cheers Lorenzo, not as bad as I was expecting, although spare a thought for MistyQueen on Skye and other Islanders looking at those charts.

PS, why this service is still funded by charity is beyond me!!! Hang head in shame government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...w-west-21235283

Thanks Cheggers, I've already topped up my oil lamps and charged as many batteries as I can! All torches have new batteries in them, good supply of candles, plenty coal, wood and kindling. Can't really do much more except go to bed early and listen to the wind screaming around the house! Will be having an early tea and bath, then maybe sit with a dram, purely to keep me warm off course!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM 00Z ensembles london surface T.

Back to cooler then brief cold after current mild, before a slight mildish period again then long term trend is towards increasingly colder. If that makes sense. Fair agreement from the GFS for this general trend too. Hopefully things will begin to look interesting over the next week.

[Shadow]

Thanks Cheggers, I've already topped up my oil lamps and charged as many batteries as I can! All torches have new batteries in them, good supply of candles, plenty coal, wood and kindling. Can't really do much more except go to bed early and listen to the wind screaming around the house! Will be having an early tea and bath, then maybe sit with a dram, purely to keep me warm off course!

we too have candles at the ready. Stuff tied down outside. It looks like a night sleeping downstairs as will be too noisy upstairs. Just surprised by the lack of warnings out.

[Ravelin]

Just surprised by the lack of warnings out.

Met Office Amber warning now for the North West of the mainland and most of the islands.

Here it's mild, and dull, although I did see the lovely sunrise this morning that Northernlights mentioned. Rather uninspiring weather really, but glad to see there's some possible colder shots now showing up in the models, especially as last week it was all doom and gloom and "no way back from mild from here" in the MT.

[November13]

Got to ride out the rollercoaster. Brief thaw of low level snow on the Ski slopes last night and today. Then heavy snow tomorrow for the mountains.Should be powder for me on Friday at Glenshee!

[Guest]

Nice post by NL above, things don't look too bad for Scotland. Could be better but certainly no end in sight to winter.

Still no broadband here, I am starting to get a twitch but would hope to be sorted by the weekend. Snow almost all gone, stoopid wind lol I am sure the wind will give me some more drifts before too long so shouldn't whinge too much!!

[NUT]

Pish ootside Quite moderate rain (was like this yesterday at this time too) and this is before the wind later

[Guest]

That low on Friday could be interesting. Hail and snow showers as it clears through, assuming the centre passes south of Scotland.

[moffatross]

That low on Friday could be interesting. Hail and snow showers as it clears through, assuming the centre passes south of Scotland.

More than just showers in Moffat according to the raw GFS ..

[milkmaid]

we are getting ready here council has put a warning out ,buses are canceled from 6 tonight ,

we have feed all the animals, i hope the power does hold as at work tonight ,

wind is at 49.9 already

barometer reading at the moment is 972.0

Edited January 29, 2013 by milkmaid

[Zenarcher]

Gusting to 50mph at the moment and it's meant to get worse later on this evening and over night mainly for Western Scotland Met Office have warnings out for gusts to reach 75 to 85mph.

A new wind turbine here that everyone seems to hate will surely be put to the test tonight.

[over_the_rainbow]

Do take care everyone on the Islands! Though I know you're an experienced bunch at dealing with an Atlantic hoolie!

Utterly peein' it here, and some flooding on the Inch. Very calm though.

[BurntFishTrousers]

So why the knicker wetting about Friday's low doon south when hardly any mention of the north low aboot to hit later?

[Blizzardo]

Fierce wind in Glasgow city centre just now. It must be gusting over 60mph.

[November13]

11.5c Edinburgh...hope they don't lose too much snow before it cools tomorrow on the ski slopes.

[NUT]

1 other noticeable thing here now is how saturated the fields seem to be getting again. Drier spell would be welcome