Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?

[Methuselah]

  And before that I found this quite interesting and admit I'd never heard of James Croll or Louis Agassiz.

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Croll

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Agassiz

Croll and Agassiz were central to the Climate Change part of my degree, Knock...Which, as it happens, blows the 'sceptics'' claim that all we ever learn, in climate science, is AGW, miles' out of the water...

[knocker]

Croll and Agassiz were central to the Climate Change part of my degree, Knock...Which, as it happens, blows the 'sceptics'' claim that all we ever learn, in climate science, is AGW, miles' out of the water...

 

Quite agree RP. My degree didn't include much on climate but was mainly on oceanography, astronomy and environment, but Callendar knew a thing or two without models.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but it seems many people expect the end of times/second coming to arrive quite soon, thus no concern about the effects climate change may have in their lifetime...

Belief in biblical end-times stifling climate change action in U.S.: study

 

 

The United States has failed to take action to mitigate climate change thanks in part to the large number of religious Americans who believe the world has a set expiration date.

 

Research by David C. Barker of the University of Pittsburgh and David H. Bearce of the University of Colorado uncovered that belief in the biblical end-times was a motivating factor behind resistance to curbing climate change.

 

“[T]he fact that such an overwhelming percentage of Republican citizens profess a belief in the Second Coming (76 percent in 2006, according to our sample) suggests that governmental attempts to curb greenhouse emissions would encounter stiff resistance even if every Democrat in the country wanted to curb them,†Barker and Bearce wrote in their study, which will be published in the June issue of Political Science Quarterly.

The rest is here http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/05/01/belief-in-end-times-stifling-climate-change-action-in-u-s-study/

 

 

[RebeccaHowards1]

I don`t agree with the term "global warming"... maybe climate change will be more suitable...

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Rebbecca!

 

I think you could look at it in terms of 'time periods'? Over the long haul it is 'Global Warming' as the planet responds to the CO2 forcing and Albedo Flip this drives. At present you could call it 'Global Weirding' as Low Ice impacts Northern hemisphere circulation at the same time as elevated temps allow more (4% over the past 30yrs) water vapour to be carried in the air leading to extreme weather events becoming over 4 times more common that 'average'.

 

When this period goes critical (no sea ice for most of the year) then the warming pattern will accelerate as the polar Jet collapses and the tropics make a dash poleward (far faster than they are today) extending the 'desert belt' into Mediteranian areas and drifting the warmth rapidly north with the help of a northern jog of the sub-tropical Jet and so would be in 'Abrupt Warming period'

 

If we continue on , B.A.U. then CO2ppm will be heading for 1,000ppm (over double todays) or more depending on how quickly the permafrost reacts to warming.

 

Such levels of CO2 were last seen during the PETM, a time charicterised by no ice sheets, Palms on ellesmere Island , Crocs off Greenland and Lions and Hippo's in Trafalgar Sq!

 

By that time it will be back to Global Warming I think!

[Methuselah]

And, melting ice is one heck of a negative feedback-mechanism! Sadly though, it's only temporary...

[Gray-Wolf]

Don't fret Pete! there's " ice sheets to go at and a whole Planet full Oceans to warm.....

[Methuselah]

Which, I guess, leads me to suppose that there will be a total of four ice-related temperature-plateau, interspersed with three, rather short, bursts of rapid warming? But that's only ice-related...I do hope I don't live long enough to see it all transpire, though...

 

It does, of course, conveniently ignore the greatest unknown of them all: what will the dear-old Sun decide to do!

[Gray-Wolf]

I do honestly think that we know the extent of the sun's variability well enough not to have to expect the unexpected Pete? We have tied up so much Solar in 'Dimming' that the amount of energy that could make it down to the surface , once the pollution drops out of the sky, is far greater than any know swing in solar output? As I've said before should a Maunder like minimum arrive we could still see surface TSI rising due to 'clean air' measures across Indo-China?

 

I think we will be around to see dramatic changes to the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets(from alarming mass loss to outright collapse) but hope to the gods we do not see East Antarctic come on line!!! The loss of half of Ross would signal this event and lead to rapid sea level hikes (inches over decades) for a period?

 

I have no doubt we will live to see enough 'extreme changes' that AGW is no longer questioned and world efforts to minimise impacts are taken?

[Methuselah]

I fundamentally disagree with your contention, Ian: if we really do "know the extent of the sun's variability well enough not to have to expect the unexpected," why have the predictions for Solar activity recently been so wrong? It's not just the difference between what we currently see and the mean, but the difference between what was forecast and what we have...If so many of these oft-quoted 'citees' have been so wrong before, they can quite easily be wrong again?

 

It's not a matter of 'expecting the unexpected', it's more a matter of keeping an open mind - to the possibility that we don't actually know everything... 

[Gray-Wolf]

No Pete, you misunderstand me. The variability (in % terms) is far less than the reduction due to current global dimming figures. The Solar cycles variability is measured in 0. percentages where as dimming , over some areas, reduces TSI at the surface (compared to that arriving at the top of the atmosphere) by up to 10%. Even if variability proves to be a whopping 3% of what we take to be 'average' it would be more than offset by a reduction in current dimming values (which must occur as the Far East reduces particulate pollutants as we in the west did).

 

Proxy records do not show a 3% variability in solar output even through the Maunder Minimum so I feel sure that any 'surprises' the Sun has to offer in terms of reduced output will be positive as it can only 'reduce' the impacts of the warming and not negate them?

 

With Albedo Flip ongoing (Greenland's 'Snow Drought' appearing to guarantee the predicted plummet in Surface albedo of the Ice sheet there this year), and CO2 through the 400ppm Barrier, I would welcome news of any 'slowdown' in warming!

 

We must try and remember that it is the energy imbalance of the planet we should be looking at (and not just global temps) and the impacts that any 'known' solar extreme would do to this figure.....we know we have plenty of atmospheric warming still to manifest from the current rate of energy imbalance and this 'imbalance' is only set to rise over the near future?

[be cause]

I've heard of this 'Greenland snow drought' before but have only seen evidence of a snow bonanza since I came on line last year. Does all the snow I have seen over the last 8 months on the charts .. take today's gefs (for example) fail to lie !??? Or is the 'Greenland snow drought' itself a lie ?

My belief in the potential for a 'local ice age' as a potential consequence of AGW is based in part on my observations of Greenland snow falls, which appear 'poles apart' from any suggestion of a snow drought .

As for evidence of a slowdown in warming  .. welcome to Northern Ireland ..

[Methuselah]

Whatever, we need to be up-front about the uncertainty involved (I don't mean argue from incredulity), otherwise, we are no better than those uber-sceptics whom we oppose...IMO, the 'zealous' approach would have similar consequences to attempting to 'fight' Islamic Fundamentalism with US Bible-Belt Bible thumping...It would make things worse...

[knocker]

I've heard of this 'Greenland snow drought' before but have only seen evidence of a snow bonanza since I came on line last year. Does all the snow I have seen over the last 8 months on the charts .. take today's gefs (for example) fail to lie !??? Or is the 'Greenland snow drought' itself a lie ?

 

IMHO any comments from Jason Box regarding Greenland should be taken seriously. He is leading the Dark Snow project this summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'Drought' quote comes from some folk living in the Greenland Capital bemoaning conditions this last winter 'inland' as the Skiing was non-existent due to lack of snow. Indeed , you would expect even heavier snows than during colder times when the atmosphere held less moisture? The drought, like most others, is caused by that pesky anomalous (low ice driven) High Pressure to the south. As we know H.P.'s don't carry much in the way of precipitation when compared to the normal run of Lows seen off the SW tip of Greenland (the 'old spawning ground' of Atlantic Low Pressure!

[songster]

I've heard of this 'Greenland snow drought' before but have only seen evidence of a snow bonanza since I came on line last year. Does all the snow I have seen over the last 8 months on the charts .. take today's gefs (for example) fail to lie !???

Are you looking specifically at Greenland on those charts? Nobody disputes that the US and Canada have had an unusually snowy winter - largely because of the same blocking patterns that have reduced snow in Greenland.

[be cause]

Are you looking specifically at Greenland on those charts? Nobody disputes that the US and Canada have had an unusually snowy winter - largely because of the same blocking patterns that have reduced snow in Greenland.

Hi Songster .. I really do know where Greenland is. However my short life on the net means I have little to compare what I watched fall there this year with. It sure looked like a lot of snow especially toward the east . I would assume the capital and it's hinterland are in the least inclement area ?.Incredible snow falls in much of Japan but Tokyo hardly notices..... So the complaints of a few locals would not necessarily reflect the overall position of a rather large island ?

 Lets hope the current and future snow this spring helps keep Greenland predominantly white for a little longer ...or my lifetime expectations will be dashed !!!

[knocker]

Hi Songster .. I really do know where Greenland is. However my short life on the net means I have little to compare what I watched fall there this year with. It sure looked like a lot of snow especially toward the east . I would assume the capital and it's hinterland are in the least inclement area ?.Incredible snow falls in much of Japan but Tokyo hardly notices..... So the complaints of a few locals would not necessarily reflect the overall position of a rather large island ?

 Lets hope the current and future snow this spring helps keep Greenland predominantly white for a little longer ...or my lifetime expectations will be dashed !!!

 

If you read the link you will see it's not about a complaint of a few locals.

 

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=860

[Snowyowl9]

An average person back in 1987 or 1988 when it was extremely mild winters and first heard about global warming.

I expected to see no more snow on low ground ever again or very little in the way of snow there very brief,just brief cold snaps from the north but overall very stormy atlantic weather during winter with severe gales or storm force winds at times and lots of damage in the winter and very wet on average.

Springs would settle down after the very wild winters on average,but most of the snow would come in spring as more blocking happens.

Summer the jet would would go much further north and bring long hots summers with very little rain,droughts,which would extend into autumn,the summer heat would take a while to move so still warm to very warm,but then much wetter late autumn with floods at times.

I expected to see no floods during summer,but occasionally thunder but to a much lesser degree to the early 80`s,thats what I expected after I first heard the news about global warmng back in 1987.

I expected to see coastal towns flooded as sea levels rise,incl parts of london.

This is a normal person who questions nothing who just watches the news.

Most of the polar bears will of died,most of the sea ice has melted in the north by the year 2010.

Has this happened only a little of it.

[Polar Maritime]

An average person back in 1987 or 1988 when it was extremely mild winters and first heard about global warming.I expected to see no more snow on low ground ever again or very little in the way of snow there very brief,just brief cold snaps from the north but overall very stormy atlantic weather during winter with severe gales or storm force winds at times and lots of damage in the winter and very wet on average.Springs would settle down after the very wild winters on average,but most of the snow would come in spring as more blocking happens.Summer the jet would would go much further north and bring long hots summers with very little rain,droughts,which would extend into autumn,the summer heat would take a while to move so still warm to very warm,but then much wetter late autumn with floods at times.I expected to see no floods during summer,but occasionally thunder but to a much lesser degree to the early 80`s,thats what I expected after I first heard the news about global warmng back in 1987.I expected to see coastal towns flooded as sea levels rise,incl parts of london.This is a normal person who questions nothing who just watches the news.Most of the polar bears will of died,most of the sea ice has melted in the north by the year 2010.Has this happened only a little of it.

 

You have to understand that this is Global Warming not UK warming. I understand the media got carried away with the sensational headlined's as usual back in the 80's 90's.. There is a much better understanding now of the effect's of Global Warming,  the climate across Mid/ Southern Europe/ America

has changed dramatically over the past 10 year's with extreme weather effecting many parts, and of course the changes in Arctic ice cover is evident, with the melt season becoming forever worrying. The UK seems to be stuck in a kind of no man's land as far as the effects are concerned, but one thing is for sure the last 4/5 years have certainly seen more severe winters, and cooler wetter summers. When some part's of the globe warm, others have to cool..

Edited May 5, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Snowyowl9]

Back in 1987 I will say it was believable as people are only going to think on average at what`s going to happen in there own country/local area which is normal.

1986-87 was the last cold severe winter,then it just happened at the right time then for most people to believe in GW even I`ll admit I did believe it then,as 1987-88 winter was pretty poor for snow and then of course 1988-89 was the mildest on record,we also had a hot summer for 3 years from 1989-91,I`m just looking at it going back in time.

Winters were also stormy esp the late 80`s to 90`s.

I`ve change my mind since as most people have I`ve spoke to,wetter summers and colder winters in the last 5 years well fair enought,and this exceptional cold march.

[BornFromTheVoid]

So are you saying you no longer believe that humans contribute to climate change because of false and exaggerated media reports, Snowyowl9?

[Snowyowl9]

So are you saying you no longer believe that humans contribute to climate change because of false and exaggerated media reports, Snowyowl9?

The title of this thread is what do you expect to see in your lifetimes.So thats some of what I expected back in 1987-88 when this first came out,it was just called global warming then.As for now the sun is one of the biggest influences on our climate,as also space weather.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The title of this thread is what do you expect to see in your lifetimes.

So thats some of what I expected back in 1987-88 when this first came out,it was just called global warming then.

As for now the sun is one of the biggest influences on our climate,as also space weather.

 

No answer for my question then?

It might have just been called global warming in the media, but within the scientific literature, it's generally been climate change (think the IPCC, not the IPGW!).

I think the sun will always have the biggest influence on our climate!

 

I expect seasonal Arctic sea ice, and a new record high annual global temperature before 2020.

[UV-RAY]

So are you saying you no longer believe that humans contribute to climate change because of false and exaggerated media reports, Snowyowl9?

Lol and what of those false and exaggerated media reports regarding AGW ?