Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just because the shortwave is there by ECM , guess what guys it doesn't mean it will happen at nearly a week away or so , it has as good a chance of disappearing on the next run , so lets just wait and see, like nick said we have a big snow event to come first and what looks like strong easterly winds following it , that will be bitter.

The gfs is the best run Iv seen from it in a while and keeps us in the cold air for a very long time albeit messy at times. And finishes with strong hight rises to Greenland , AGAIN.

All in all a very good morning

[That ECM]

Love this thread. ECM is great when showing cold and other models are not when they are not in agreement but ECM shows the cold being mixed out and now we read that the ECM has prob got this wrong!!!

ECM and UKMO look great at t144. GFS has certainly moved towards ECM and much can be learnt from this period of model watching. SM detailed analysis of each model and its bias has be enlightening and something we can take forward in the future.

The ECM does show the cold air getting mixed out so if it is right at T144 and has modelled this weekend correctly why would it be wrong with regards to SW? Pick the bits one likes and drop the bits we don't?

For what it's worth I think the ECM will be close to the mark and therefor the later part of the run looks plausible.

[Snowman.]

The ggs also had this feature last night but removed we must now keep are eyes on this little guy as it could just end winter from here

[nick sussex]

I think we should give the ECM some credit for the overall pattern. Putting aside whether the shortwave verifies or not, I have mentioned several times over the last few days the ECM standing alone with that deeper low in the eastern USA, indeed NOAA didn't like this and it had no support amongst the other models.

The others have now developed that low which does help the downstream pattern in Europe so upstream the ECM has wiped the floor with the rest of the global models.

We shouldn't confuse the sudden appearance of that Norwegian shortwave with the ECM moving to the GFS, the GFS has been cat litter for several days now, wrong upstream and downstream.

Overall then if the outputs verify at 144hrs then its the right call by the ECM, trough disruption to the west and some influence of high pressure to the ne.

[SMU]

Looks like the mighty ECM has fallen. It was always going to move towards GFS whilst the GFS moved towards ECM and we have a middle ground. A 2 day slack easterly affecting mainly the SE then back to slightly below average

Do you know what- despite you asking questions, people trying to help - you post utter nonsence.

ECM moved the GFS couldnt be further from the truth.

Do you actually get out of bed to come on here & be miserable?-

is this a slack easterly?

UKMO

Edited February 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

Fortunately tim, we have been watching this evolution like hawks and realise that if the norwegian shortwave verifies, your post is pure rubbish. The middle ground solution would be nothing to do with gfs having the pattern right in any meaningful sense. It would merely be due to the fact the earth spins west to east and no more. My 5 year old could work that out without a supercomputer.

I've also been watching it like a hawk and all I'm saying is that some were wrong to say the ECM was 100% right and all other models were wrong. The experienced level headed members realised that in all probability no model had it spot on. GFS and ECM were poles apart 2 days ago and now they are not too dissimilar and have come together. ECM was as wrong as GFS. Best performer IMO is the UKMO

As it stands the GFS solution is now actually better in terms of snow next week. Central areas could see 24hrs of snow from sun into mon. Then snow showers in the east before another potential undercut or leading edge snow mid week

[bluearmy]

No we want it gone completely, because of the set up you need the Russian high backing west to put some forcing on the next upstream low to disrupt.

The shortwave stops that and then really its game over from there. As Ian B says which I agree with its a long way back to cold from the ECM later output, anyway before that theres still alot of weather and could be a big snow event at the weekend.

We might still see some changes to the placement of the shortwave or preferably the ECM is doing a GFS special with that!

nick - if it was to drop further east behind an already established scandi ridge, then it would get caught in the flow and head towards us or the euro trough providing extra energy for it. however, does ecm get things very wrong at day 5?

[bluearmy]

I've also been watching it like a hawk and all I'm saying is that some were wrong to say the ECM was 100% right and all other models were wrong. The experienced level headed members realised that in all probability no model had it spot on. GFS and ECM were poles apart 2 days ago and now they are not too dissimilar and have come together. ECM was as wrong as GFS. Best performer IMO is the UKMO

wrong again tim. nothing has verified yet. ukmo could well show this shortwave at day 5 later on. gfs has not shown the cross model agreed solution yet so how can it even be considered in any analysis of what follows. if it has anything right next week, it got there by accident. lets see where we are tomorrow re gfs.

[Paul]

Can we give up with the bickering and point scoring please - it's all getting very boring.

[nick sussex]

nick - if it was to drop further east behind an already established scandi ridge, then it would get caught in the flow and head towards us or the euro trough providing extra energy for it. however, does ecm get things very wrong at day 5?

Yes but I don't like shortwaves as you know so want it gone! Yes I suppose what you describe is a way for that to still verify without causing so much trouble.

We'll see, I'd really like to see that big snow event verify for the UK at the weekend, that could be quite something, any ideas on amounts possible or is that asking for trouble in here?!!! lol

[MR EXTREMES]

Do you know what- despite you asking questions, people trying to help - you post utter nonsence.

ECM moved the GFS couldnt be further from the truth.

Do you actually get out of bed to come on here & be miserable?-

is this a slack easterly?

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?05-12

http://www.meteociel...0-168.GIF?05-12

UKMO

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?05-06

i agree steve there are some who do like the reaction.

the mighty ecm has not fallen at all and even if the cold breakdown is correct then it will show that alot of post in here by some members are just knee jerk reactions and that this morning is no different.

there is some fun to be had before any breakdown and its worth enjoying this before anything verifies and it could well be just another idear that could be gone tonight it would be intresting to see if the ukmo went out futher then would this model also have this shortwave because as it is a uk model it could well be future ukmo runs might not have this feature so game on again.

over all we live in the uk and its never plan sailing but the ecm has performed very well not only with this up and coming spell but also with the strat evolution so the gfs has been poor but still not the worst model.

anyway what does the cma model think ive herd this model is a fairly good up and coming model.

[Tim Bland]

Sorry if I've woud anyone up. I don't come here to be liked and praised just to give an honest view of the weather. It was wrong to say the ECM has fallen. All I meant was that some have been saying the ECM was perfect with its evolution for a long draw bitter easterly next week and we had talk of record breaking cold etc. my "fallen" comment was in relation to it backing away from this which it had shown for 8 runs which shows its not perfect. I agree GFS is rubbish at times.

Let's all enjoy what could be a memorable weekend / early next week and hope that we keep on the right side of the Block so the snow can last.

[lorenzo]

EC32 has a very cold signal for Europe and UK for the week 1 then waning a little week 2 , an easterly theme.

The temp profile also above average for Scandi week 1 moving to Greenland week 2.

Intriguing.

[phil nw.]

Come on folks you can put your own points of view without sniping at others.

Let`s keep the thread friendly and about the model content.

[Jason M]

Tbh, I suspect ECM is too quick to mix out the cold uppers anyway. On my phone so awkward to post charts, but the upper temp profile is unlikely to change that much in 24 hours given no change of air mass.

If most get a load of snow at days 5 and 6 though, I personally wouldn't be that bothered about what happens after. Given the low heights to our NW this winter I'd bank two major snowfalls from this winter :-)

There is still a chance (albeit small) that we could see a more substantial full on easterly in the day 10 timeframe, but that's an outside bet.

CWT - 18 inches of snow :-) a tad optimistic me thinks

Jason

[swfc]

It was like heaven on here at 5-00 to be fair.viewing the runs and output then just like magic about 8-00 the rutting season kicks in!!!!Its only weather guys and if its that important id see a doc.good output this morning,well imo.

[MR EXTREMES]

Come on folks you can put your own points of view without sniping at others.

Let`s keep the thread friendly and about the model content.

i agree i can understand why some have found the ecm dissapointing in later runs but its just 1 run so lets keep our feet on the ground id rather talk about how fishy the models have been acting than frustrating each other with gfs vs ecm post.

now i was wondering is the ec32 dayer a ecm based model by any chance? because if it is surely this goes against what the ecm has shown today in the later runs.

[CWT2012]

Tbh, I suspect ECM is too quick to mix out the cold uppers anyway. On my phone so awkward to post charts, but the upper temp profile is unlikely to change that much in 24 hours given no change of air mass.

If most get a load of snow at days 5 and 6 though, I personally wouldn't be that bothered about what happens after. Given the low heights to our NW this winter I'd bank two major snowfalls from this winter :-)

There is still a chance (albeit small) that we could see a more substantial full on easterly in the day 10 timeframe, but that's an outside bet.

CWT - 18 inches of snow :-) a tad optimistic me thinks

Jason

That's quite conservative compared with what our Dutch friend forecast 60cm which is like 26" :o

Given up all faith in the GFS now though, useful as a chocolate teapot this winter

[Jason M]

I'm 41 and I've never seen 18 inches of snow fall widely. Even 87 and 91 cold spells didn't drop that much and my part of the world did well from both :-)

The proof will be in the eating as always :-)

Jason

Edit: if offered 7-10cm now I'd be shouting 'deal' in pretty short order

Edited February 5, 2013 by Jason M

[weather eater]

I think we should give the ECM some credit for the overall pattern.

I Certainly will and do Nick, much happier with this morning’s output, and although just as the GFS gets there the ECMs latter frames then jack it in early, I won’t be worrying about that for a while, mainly because, although the ECM has been consistent with the early setup it has then toyed about with a number of options post that setup and I see this as just another attempt to evolve the pattern on, it will be something else by the time we get to the 12z. As I said last night one step at a time, ECM trumping the GFS and the slider low first after that none of the models seem sure so it’s a case of wait and see.

[Mucka]

Hyperbole aside some places will fair quite well around Sunday I expect but no way to pin snow amounts or location down at the moment. Let's just hope we get to that stage first.

I know BOM is hardly the model of choice but while things are quiet, why not?

We really need to see UKMO develop the theme of a more amplified pattern behind the trigger low and ECM to back it this evening if we want to see a cold spell develop from there. That would force a repeat pattern with another slider most likely - too flat and all the energy will push over the top NE.

It would also be nice if that shortwave waved goodbye.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Mucka

[TEITS]

Around a week ago I said I wasn't looking at the model output for a sustained cold spell and would prefer to see a big snow event. I said this because in recent years I have seen many days of lying snow and now I want a big snowfall. Well the models this morning are perfect because that is pretty much what they show. Rather difficult to say how much snow would fall and the exact location but at the moment the output favours S/C England/Wales rather than N England.

The useless GFS/GEFS continues to be as reliable as using seaweed and I would prefer to count the number of seagulls flying around than using this model at the moment.

[Glacier Point]

Some quite bizarre model interpretations going on here.

GEFS mean height anomalies and T850s painting what would be a reasonable picture for the day 6-15 range (in addition to days 1-5 which are cold).

Trough signal over Europe is persistent and gets sharpened in the 11-15 day range as the ridge signal in the Atlantic gets organised. Temperatures below average throughout.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Glacier Point

[bluearmy]

the ecm ens mean drifting towards a mogreps picture in the 9 day+ area. the block to our east slowly giving way again .

[Gibby]

Good morning all. Here's this morning's review of the 00z output from the big four namely GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for this morning Tuesday February 5th 2013.

All models show a very cold West to Northwest airflow over the UK veering Northerly over the coming 24 hours as a deep Low pressure slides South down the North Sea and away into Europe. Frequent wintry showers of rain and sleet, with hill snow in the South and sleet and snow in the North will continue through today giving some accumulations in the North. As winds veer Northerly the emphasis of showers will shift towards the East and West Coasts with many inland areas becoming cold and clear by night with a frost with compensatory bright and sunny days. Temperatures will remain below normal over the next couple of days but at least winds will decrease by Thursday. Later in the week troughs will move into the cold air and bring some outbreaks of rain or sleet and hill snow as they weaken in situ over the UK. Then the weather looks like becoming cold and dry over Saturday under a weak ridge of High pressure.

GFS then shows High pressure over Northern Scandinavia acting as a block to milder Atlantic winds pushing in from the West with the result that attempting troughs disrupt and slide SE over the UK on repeated occasions next week. The result would be rain and sleet moving into the West at times through the week with some snow possible in the colder air further East, especially on Monday when something a little more coherent is possible on the back edge of Low pressure exiting Southeast from the South. In FI today the pattern remains in situ with further pushes of Atlantic air into the UK disrupting and sliding away SE with spells of rain, sleet or snow for all in rather cold conditions away from the far SW.

The GFS Ensembles are much more solid in agreement of rather cold conditions for the UK today with tight agreement on uppers being on the low side of normal throughout. With precipitation spikes shown no doubt snow would feature on many days somewhere or another.

The Jet Stream shows the basic pattern of a ridging of the flow over the Atlantic and down over the UK towards Southern Europe remaining in place over the coming week or so with a temporary weakening and breaking up of the flow at the weekend.

UKMO for next weekend shows a weak ridge of High pressure moving SE over the UK on Saturday followed by a fall of pressure in association with a disrupting but developing Low pressure area moving SE over the UK through Sunday and Monday with rain or snow for all later in the period with the chance of significant snowfall over the hills of the South early next week.

GEM shows a similar picture at Day 6 with rain and snow a feature especially in the South early next week before the model flattens the pattern with the Atlantic steaming back in with ease to bring rain and milder air across the UK from the West by the end of its run.

ECM too shows the same Low pressure and a snowy and very cold start to next week, especially in the South before a ridge quickly replaces the cold easterly flow on the back of the snowy Low bringing drier and frosty conditions before it too shows another attempt to bring milder air in off the Atlantic with some success in the NW where rain at times would develop while the South holds on to the cold under a tenuous ridge of High pressure.

In Summary today things are tidying up between the models on the mid term events covering the start of next week. All models now show something of a major Low slipping SE bringing the potential for some significant snow in places to start next week. The South looks likely to be most at risk though the North would see some too while the SW could see some rain or sleet rather than snow. Longer term GFS keeps the pattern of disrupting Low pressure sliding SE over the UK with a similar event to next Monday's showing up again in the operational at the end of FI while ECM and more especially GEM cut off the cold East flow that develops behind next weeks Low and find a way to get the Atlantic back into at least the NW by the middle of next week or so.