Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[weather eater]

Is it safe in here now?

Ha, it’s never safe in here, its full of men using model analysis as a substitute for war, Currently it’s the war on GFS, as the massive army of the USOE (United supporters of ECM) try to crush the tiny GFS insurrection into oblivion by using black propaganda to smear GFS freedom fighters, the group otherwise known as the GDL, (GFS defence league) and their leader Ian Brown (known as the Brown B’stard to his supporters and even more unsavoury names to his enemies), by labelling them as warmest terrorists and Easterly deniers.

Edited February 5, 2013 by weather eater

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That's a bold prediction Fred obviously the upstream pattern is far better on todays GFS runs at days 9-10 but can we place much faith in that given the GFS performance ? Low heights to the NW and toppling Azores High must be favourite.

Hi Ian

Not bold inasmuch I have always plumped for descending winter with feb being coldest winter month by some way. The dates are something I tend to add during start of each month for 'notable' weather periods a la I did in Jan 16-22. I disagree re what's fav...I think the retrograde signal is the stronger player here.

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If the GFS gets that right, will its reputation improve?

I'm looking at the current GFS run and as far as i can see there is at no point an Easterly over the UK upto and including T144.

Would I be right in saying that, were it to verify out to this time.....and hence go on to "smell the coffee"..... then that would surely somewhat knock the reputation of the ECM with its persistence with an Easterly through this period?

No its got some improving to do to achieve that...and I said nothing about it being right upto t144, I'm talking longer term re smelling the coffee.

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Timmytour]

No its got some improving to do to achieve that...and I said nothing about it being right upto t144, I'm talking longer term re smelling the coffee.

BFTP

That's fair enough BTFP....I was just coming from the angle of to get where it seemed to be developing things in the longer term, then things might have to develop in the shorter term the way it's showing them to be.

So your money's still on an easterly of some form or another hitting us over the next few days?

[shaky]

Any news on the 12zs!!😚

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z fractionally further west than 06Z at T96.

Edited February 5, 2013 by rjbw

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs has a sharper trough to the west with trough disruption likely to occur further west.

It's only taken the GFS about 20 runs to come into line!!!

Edited February 5, 2013 by nick sussex

[snow mad]

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1That low off the eastern seaboard is much deeper at t108 leading to better amplification hopefully Edited February 5, 2013 by snow mad

[noonoo418]

That low off the eastern seaboard is much deeper leading to better amplification hopefullyhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=0&carte=1

Not only deeper but further west!!

[noonoo418]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that our very shallow shortwave now showing much further south and west?

[chris55]

GFS soooooo slow to catch on, getting there,

[nick sussex]

You can see here the importance of that low off the eastern USA, when the ECM was going for this set up a few days ago it was the only model deepening that low which downstream helped to sharpen the trough to the west of the UK.

Hence until we saw a resolution with that upstream pattern then we wouldn't know which model/s had called the pattern correct for Europe.

Whatever happens post 168hrs on tonights ECM its wiped the floor with all the other global models.

[Weathizard]

Yes the GFS appears to now be going for the undercut although its half hearted compared to the EC and UKMO(0z). Uppers don't look great though.

Edit: agree with Nick above, ECM has wiped the floor with every other global model. UKM a close second. NOGAPS third? (In this setup)

Edited February 5, 2013 by Weathizard

[john mac]

The GFS 12hrs has a sharper trough to the west with trough disruption likely to occur further west.

It's only taken the GFS about 20 runs to come into line!!!

About bloody time nick!! Mind you should we expect anything else. Your never know it might suprise us one day, Just hope the UKmo and ECm hold firm andno more movement eastwards!!

[cold snap]

in work .whats happening there with the ukmo at 120?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the GFS appears to now be going for the undercut although its half hearted compared to the EC and UKMO(0z). Uppers don't look great though.

Edit: agree with Nick above, ECM has wiped the floor with every other global model. UKM a close second. NOGAPS third? (In this setup)

I said this during the last cold spell, the GFS really needs looking at. It seems to get the trend right in FI more than it does 96-192 hours.

[cold snap]

in work .whats happening there with the ukmo at 120?

[Gowon]

in work .whats happening there with the ukmo at 120?

The UKMO looks good too but with the sw futher East.

And even better at 144

Edited February 5, 2013 by Pointe La Rue

[SE Blizzards]

At long last it looks like the GFS has started to come on board with the UKMO and the ECM, and after days of being in what can only be described as some sort of a coma its finally beginning to wake up and smell the coffee.

As others have said many times before on here... its a joke of a model! GFS - YOU FAIL!!

[Southender]

UKMO 144

Edited February 5, 2013 by Shrimper

[Weathizard]

Nice UKM chart

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oooooooooooooooo Maaaaaaatron :-)

[Cheshire Freeze]

At long last it looks like the GFS has started to come on board with the UKMO and the ECM, and after days of being in what can only be described as some sort of a coma its finally beginning to wake up and smell the coffee.

As others have said many times before on here... its a joke of a model! GFS - YOU FAIL!!

The GFS seems to have a genuine issue handling energy distribution around any pressure rise to the E and NE. No idea why but as Steve has said it doesn't seem to be able to split energy successfully and more often than not sends it all over the top.

[bradymk]

Great 12z runs so far, Global fail system (GFS) now starts to show the euro solution but not quite but it will continue another classic backtrack, UKMO looks great. Will our next model inconsistency come in regards to the trough disruption on the weekend, most likely.

Edited February 5, 2013 by bradythemole

[nick sussex]

If you like snow then the UKMO 144hrs is excellent. We are seeing differences with the detail re the trough disruption so this will have to wait a while but if I was in the UK and offered the UKMO now I'd take it and run to the nearest sledge shop!

I think the UKMO would also see the cold extended, the question is can this thread survive the shredded nerves to get from 120 to 144hrs !