Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Yarmy]

Oooooooooooooooo Maaaaaaatron :-)

For the first time in 2 months I can actually see Greenland.

[SE Blizzards]

The GFS seems to have a genuine issue handling energy distribution around any pressure rise to the E and NE. No idea why but as Steve has said it doesn't seem to be able to split energy successfully and more often than not sends it all over the top.

Absolutely. I've only been model watching for approx 2 years and have already noticed that myself.

As for the rest of the GFS run, not much point in looking past 144h at the moment if it cant get anything right pre 144h!

[weather eater]

We will survive model masochists one and all that we are, very very good UKMO but as usually however rubbish the GFS may be, there will always be uncertainty until we get model consensus and I really don’t trust charts post 120hrs if that, no matter how consistent they appear to be.

Edited February 5, 2013 by weather eater

[Cheshire Freeze]

Absolutely. I've only been model watching for approx 2 years and have already noticed that myself.

As for the rest of the GFS run, not much point in looking past 144h at the moment if it cant get anything right pre 144h!

It's funny to see the GFS gradually drop more and more energy SE run by run. It hasn't reached the tipping point yet to allow something like the UKMO to come off but by the 18z or 0z it should be there. It's funny because once it tips, its whole output post 120-144 will have to alter in accordance too.

Edited February 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

GFS finally gets the energy distribution right. much better than its jan debacle when it took till T72 to catch on! note that it also finds the norwegian shortwave (as per ecm) coming down from the north (note whoever said it was from the south earlier). That shortwave scuppers the remainder of the run wrt the russian ridge. ukmo doeant have the same feature dropping into the ridge so only has to deal with the energy coming around the euro trough. if it keeps that continuity in the morning we will see what it does with it and whether it just continues around the general trough circulation as the russian ridge pushes west. imo, it is not good news that gfs and ecm look the same wrt this shortwave. we must hope that the 12z ecm op removes it or places it so far east it gets further south in the circulation and heads towards nw europe

[Snowman.]

GFS has brought the shortwave north of Scandi.

I can't see anything until later February.

Damn shortwaves.

Edited February 5, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[SE Blizzards]

It's funny to see the GFS gradually drop more and more energy SE run by run. It hasn't reached the tipping point yet to allow something like the UKMO to come off but by the 18z or 0z it should be there. It's funny because once it tips, its whole output post 120-144 will have to alter in accordance too.

Yes, quite right.

i think i remember steve saying yesterday that the GFS will fall into line within 24-36hrs (or something like that)! Looks like he may be proven right.?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

GFS has brought the shortwave north of Scandi.

I can't see anything until later February.

Damn shortwaves.

Other than the cold spell we are in now obviously. Can you see anything for December yet

Edited February 5, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Snowman.]

However im liking this trend of new heights into GH lets keep that up.

[Southender]

Greenland is still there folks!

[Snowman.]

Ahh thats amazing synoptics.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS finally gets the energy distribution right. much better than its jan debacle when it took till T72 to catch on! note that it also finds the norwegian shortwave (as per ecm) coming down from the north (note whoever said it was from the south earlier). That shortwave scuppers the remainder of the run wrt the russian ridge. ukmo doeant have the same feature dropping into the ridge so only has to deal with the energy coming around the euro trough. if it keeps that continuity in the morning we will see what it does with it and whether it just continues around the general trough circulation as the russian ridge pushes west. imo, it is not good news that gfs and ecm look the same wrt this shortwave. we must hope that the 12z ecm op removes it or places it so far east it gets further south in the circulation and heads towards nw europe

For all its faults the GFS will never shy away from a shortwave debacle. The slightest whiff and it's on it like a tramp on chips.

[Panayiotis]

Another Greenland high to end the run.....

[Jax]

For all its faults the GFS will never shy away from a shortwave debacle. The slightest whiff and it's on it like a tramp on chips.

CHIPS!

Well the cold looks likely to become more and more embedded looking at the current and recent model output.

[chris55]

It is looking more and more likely some places will see some significant snowfall come Sunday/Monday. The positioning of the low will be crucial, those on the frontal boundary line where it pivots will see most as the front comes in, stalls and then pivots back south as the low pulls away. Although those who may well enter a "mild sector" if the Low pushes to far east may well see snow as the Lows pulls south and the cold wraps in behind.

Could be epic, but way to far out to look at specifics.

[weather eater]

For all its faults the GFS will never shy away from a shortwave debacle. The slightest whiff and it's on it like a tramp on chips.

True, trouble is it’s been right with them so many times, over the years they have been the scupperer in chief for easterlies.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nick, looking at the GFS it doesn't look like the SW is the issue as it gets easily absorbed. The main issue is not enough energy going SE (on the GFS)

Though I am viewing on mobile and it isn't the easiest!

Edited February 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

So we all know precisely why the GFS is 'crap', but no-one can do any better? IMO, at nearly three weeks' out, they're all crap...

[bradymk]

I am not going to be teased by any GH in FI this time. An improvement from GFS but no long lasting cold, UKMO is great. ECM we shall know in a few hours.

So we all know precisely why the GFS is 'crap', but no-one can do any better? IMO, at nearly three weeks' out, they're all crap...

Yes true however the GFS has been crap at t72 hours. And now we are talking at 120-144 timeframe, not three weeks

Edited February 5, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Walk with me en UKMO end wintry weather.

Dont believe those ego people who are talking nonsens here.

They dont nothing at all.

Waste no time for rubbisch postings end egocentrisch people.

They talk like a proffesor , but they are farizeers.

UK will get lot of snow , in februari also in march.

My country to.

The cold patterns this winter will win each every time s.

Look the alliantie between the Atlantik/Iceland end the Russian Federation by UKMET 12z.

Stay tuned for the ECMWF .

[snow mad]

GFS finally gets the energy distribution right. much better than its jan debacle when it took till T72 to catch on! note that it also finds the norwegian shortwave (as per ecm) coming down from the north (note whoever said it was from the south earlier). That shortwave scuppers the remainder of the run wrt the russian ridge. ukmo doeant have the same feature dropping into the ridge so only has to deal with the energy coming around the euro trough. if it keeps that continuity in the morning we will see what it does with it and whether it just continues around the general trough circulation as the russian ridge pushes west. imo, it is not good news that gfs and ecm look the same wrt this shortwave. we must hope that the 12z ecm op removes it or places it so far east it gets further south in the circulation and heads towards nw europe

Yes BA that shortwave is a worry because this is similar to what happened in Dec.. As time got nearer that shortwave developed over Germany to scupper that spell.. Lets hope this isn't going the same way

[Kay]

I know that this isnt exactly on topic but is Kent likely to get any snow on Sun into Monday as I have my grandmothers funeral at 9:30 on Monday morning? any thoughts??

[bluearmy]

Nick, looking at the GFS it doesn't look like the SW is the issue as it gets easily absorbed. The main issue is not enough energy going SE (on the GFS)

Though I am viewing on mobile and it isn't the easiest!

cc - it cuts off the ridge support from russia and allows the energy to head to our north rather than having to disrupt se. now this is gfs so that would prob happen anyway but given that it is a fair copy of the ecm 00z run, it doesnt look great.

and i'll repost incase people arent clear - i believe its the shortwave dropping in from the north that is the issue here rather than the enrgy headed nw from the euro trough. i think that would get transfered west towards us as the ridge extended across scandi. the shortwave dropping in from the north is the problem. its not quite the same as dec.

Edited February 5, 2013 by bluearmy

[Ian Brown]

If you like snow then the UKMO 144hrs is excellent. We are seeing differences with the detail re the trough disruption so this will have to wait a while but if I was in the UK and offered the UKMO now I'd take it and run to the nearest sledge shop!

I think the UKMO would also see the cold extended, the question is can this thread survive the shredded nerves to get from 120 to 144hrs !

Nick, if your location is Ireland or the far West then the sledges will not be required and it remains to be seen where any snow will be because it’s very marginal.

Beyond the weekend the easterly is a ‘shadow’ one simply pulling easterlies in behind the front. There is too much energy in the wrong place to extend this beyond day 8 and it’s a slow edging in from the Azores High I feel.

[weather eater]

I am not going to be teased by any GH in FI this time. An improvement from GFS but no long lasting cold, UKMO is great. ECM we shall know in a few hours.

Yes true however the GFS has been crap at t72 hours. And now we are talking at 120-144 timeframe, not three weeks

So have they all, the GFS is not the only one although it may well be that it does it more often, personally I find it odd that anyone sets much store by any of them post 120hrs. This evening we have a great 144hr UKMO chart but I don’t trust it to be correct or even close.