Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not liking +192 .. Break down from the NW looks possible , although it could act as an undercut .. P/V looks week still so that is a plus .. I may be being a little hasty

Edited February 5, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Captain Shortwave]

hmm looks pretty good to me

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 192 the Atlantic making inroads but I'm liking the scene in the Atlantic...

Hardly 'flat'

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

192z , not a bad chart , still very cold , but the Atlantic needs to go under the block rather than pushing against it and pushing it east, very fi though now

Edit , looks like sliding given the angle of the isobars .

Edited February 5, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[bluearmy]

with no norwegian shortwave, the whole pictue changes and we see another possible undercut - pretty much inline with the ens mean. currently a slight correction west in the mid term would help

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

cracking 144 chart reminicent of my 30cms of snow in 2009 - with -11c pushing in-

168 more heavy snow showers in the e &SE in -10c air-

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?05-0

http://www.meteociel...F0-168.GIF?05-0

192 rain moving SE turning to snow in england as it hits the frigid SURFACE air

http://www.meteociel...M1-192.GIF?05-0

A cracking set of euros- UKMO needs to back a tad west

**IGNORE THE GFS**

Indeed Steve, ECM would lead onto another slider. Retrogression order of the day here

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not liking +192 .. Break down from the NW looks possible , although it could act as an undercut .. P/V looks week still so that is a plus .. I may be being a little hasty

That LP should slide SE. Block is strong, the weakest link is to its SE and that would/should be the natural progression as the block is retrogressing.

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

That LP should slide SE. Block is strong, the weakest link is to its SE and that would/should be the natural progression as the block is retrogressing.

BFTP

It's only retrogressing if you run the frames backwards from 192 Fred

But yes, in theory energy should be pulled through the 'gap' the weak link to our SE. Whether it does ornot remains to be seen.

[chionomaniac]

Cracking ECM and UKMO tonight.

Crewe cold very pertinently suggested earlier that the GFS seems to struggle with the jet stream energy distribution when height rises are programmed to the NE and yet again this appears true. What is interesting is that the 100 hpa pattern for both models suggested height rises to the NE some time ago (- probably well over a week, I would have to check the strat thread to find out when) and yet still the GFS can't nail the tropospheric pattern during the run in.

Yet again the UKMO is ultra consistent and as ever is the model to follow out to T+144.

Would love to see some snow on Feb 10th.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's only retrogressing if you run the frames backwards from 192 Fred

But yes, in theory energy should be pulled through the 'gap' the weak link to our SE. Whether it does ornot remains to be seen.

The 'overall' pattern ha ha ha.

Yes whether it does is another thing....but a good step forward from its last 3 FI showings....remains excellent up to t144 so all is good

BFTP

[cooling climate]

Not sure about the t168 chart the way the shortwave stalls to the east but on the t192 its

starting to drag some bitterly cold air round the right hand side of the high. With the energy

in the Atlantic disrupting southeast I would imagine as heights build behind we should see

the disrupting trough pulling the really cold upper air towards us.

Just seen the t216 chart and am quite sure it will not look like that in a couple of days time.

By t240 we should be pulling in some really cold upper air temps although not on this run

unfortunately.

[SMU]

_{http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif}

_{huge scandi high.}

_{Frontal snow for the SE}

_S

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm Still cold at 216? not sure ?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ok so the meteociel has froze ? ...

[snowmadchrisuk]

That LP should slide SE. Block is strong, the weakest link is to its SE and that would/should be the natural progression as the block is retrogressing.

BFTP

+216 .. Interesting .

[cold snap]

On meteociel it's not working

Edit .working now

Edited February 5, 2013 by cold snap

[chris55]

Very nice ECM once again, Sundays Low ever so slightly further west than the UKMO with the very cold air wrapping back round at 144.

Ian F just said on Points West that today's snow showers for our region "could pale into insignificance come Sunday into Monday"

Met obviously seeing the snow risk as far West as the Westcountry (to include many other places I should think). This has the potential to be really good for many!!

[SMU]

LOLOL

feb 1991 at day 11 & 12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020512/ECM1-240.GIF?05-0

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh boy, not warm is it

[Weather-history]

As regards to ECM 12Z, anyone notice that very cool pool coming around and beneath the Scandi high?

[Cloud 10]

_{http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif}

_{huge scandi high.}

_{Frontal snow for the SE}

_S

Meteociel has been a bit sluggish the past couple of days.

[cold snap]

LOLOL

feb 1991 at day 11 & 12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020512/ECM1-240.GIF?05-0

Excellent chart steve but for the east only ?

[ChartViewer]

LOLOL

feb 1991 at day 11 & 12

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?05-0

We can dream...Id love Feb 1991 again!!!!!....

[Cheshire Freeze]

As regards to ECM 12Z, anyone notice that very cool pool coming around and beneath the Scandi high?

Yep, hence Steve's 1991 reference for days 11 and 12

[cooling climate]

Wow was not expecting the t240 chart to look anything like as good as that on this run.

That cold pool out east has the UK written all over it.