Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

cc - it cuts off the ridge support from russia and allows the energy to head to our north rather than having to disrupt se. now this is gfs so that would prob happen anyway but given that it is a fair copy of the ecm 00z run, it doesnt look great.

Ahhhh no, not ideal.

We need to see the ECM back away somewhat from this. It's at 120 hr ish so plenty of wriggle room left given the likely erratic nature of this feature placement.

[Ian Brown]

Walk with me en UKMO end wintry weather.

Dont believe those ego people who are talking nonsens here.

They dont nothing at all.

Waste no time for rubbisch postings end egocentrisch people.

They talk like a proffesor , but they are farizeers.

UK will get lot of snow , in februari also in march.

My country to.

The cold patterns this winter will win each every time s.

Look the alliantie between the Atlantik/Iceland end the Russian Federation by UKMET 12z.

Stay tuned for the ECMWF .

You are misreading the UKMO if you think that - the core of heights is to the SW of the UK. There is no way the Azores High can get into a fvourable position for the UK from there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nick, if your location is Ireland or the far West then the sledges will not be required and it remains to be seen where any snow will be because it’s very marginal.

Beyond the weekend the easterly is a ‘shadow’ one simply pulling easterlies in behind the front. There is too much energy in the wrong place to extend this beyond day 8 and it’s a slow edging in from the Azores High I feel.

Forever the optimist!

[MR EXTREMES]

Nick, if your location is Ireland or the far West then the sledges will not be required and it remains to be seen where any snow will be because it’s very marginal.

Beyond the weekend the easterly is a ‘shadow’ one simply pulling easterlies in behind the front. There is too much energy in the wrong place to extend this beyond day 8 and it’s a slow edging in from the Azores High I feel.

well thats debatable ian great to see your posting charts to show this is a none runner.

[Steady Easterly]

Nick, if your location is Ireland or the far West then the sledges will not be required and it remains to be seen where any snow will be because it’s very marginal.

Beyond the weekend the easterly is a ‘shadow’ one simply pulling easterlies in behind the front. There is too much energy in the wrong place to extend this beyond day 8 and it’s a slow edging in from the Azores High I feel.

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

[weather eater]

cc - it cuts off the ridge support from russia and allows the energy to head to our north rather than having to disrupt se. now this is gfs so that would prob happen anyway but given that it is a fair copy of the ecm 00z run, it doesnt look great.

and i'll repost incase people arent clear - i believe its the shortwave dropping in from the north that is the issue here rather than the enrgy headed nw from the euro trough. i think that would get transfered west towards us as the ridge extended across scandi. the shortwave dropping in from the north is the problem. its not quite the same as dec.

That will be so GFS, wrong about everything else and right about a shortwave spoiler. I wonder if there will be a hue and cry about how the ECM is poor at Short wave spoilers if thats what happens.

Edited February 5, 2013 by weather eater

[FreezingFog]

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

East of Ireland do very well when they get an easterly, irish sea is a snow machine

[chionomaniac]

Nick, if your location is Ireland or the far West then the sledges will not be required and it remains to be seen where any snow will be because it’s very marginal.

Beyond the weekend the easterly is a ‘shadow’ one simply pulling easterlies in behind the front. There is too much energy in the wrong place to extend this beyond day 8 and it’s a slow edging in from the Azores High I feel.

Are you basing your thoughts on this chart Ian?

Looks very marginal if you are west on a sailing boat near the Azores!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

I would say for the record that the shortwave in the GFS run just now and the one in the ECM are different and evolve differently

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?05-12

The ECM one forms in Scandinavia from a cut off section of cold 500mb temps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?12

GFS one is formed by small parcels of energy going north east from Greenland which drop into the weakness of the ridge (between the cut off high to our north and the main russian block)

The GFS one should not be of a worry at the moment as these shortwaves have ebbed and flowed from run to run (it was present on the 6z, but much weaker) If less energy goes north this shortwave should disappear. ECM one is more of a problem for now

I've probably explained this terribly

Edit again - It did explain this terribly

Edited February 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[snowice]

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

FEB 2009

[Tristrame]

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

Not that rarely,irish sea streamers were common in the 80's,we had a lot in feb '91 and of course much of Dublin had a foot of snow in dec 2010.I'm on the Irish east coast and had lying snow in that spell from nov 27th to December 26th,peaking at about 18 inches.That's better than a lot of the Uk at that time..

Once -8 uppers hit the irish sea,streamers and thundersnow can happen.

Usually its about 60% of the times it reaches England ,that it's also strong enough to back west to Ireland,in my experience.

I do agree though,in terms of discussing current synoptics,they favour Eastern England at the moment not here but who knows.

Personally what concerns me is,everytime I look lately,we're here praising a 144 chart.Tomorrow if that synoptic or similar is again at 144 and not 120,we are only chasing still.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Tristrame

[bluearmy]

I would say for the record that the shortwave in the GFS run just now and the one in the ECM are different and evolve differently

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?05-12

The ECM one forms in Scandinavia from a cut off section of cold 500mb temps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?12

GFS one is formed by small parcels of energy going north east from Greenland which drop into the weakness of the ridge (between the cut off high to our north and the main russian block)

The GFS one should not be of a worry at the moment as these shortwaves have ebbed and flowed from run to run (it was present on the 6z, but much weaker) If less energy goes north this shortwave should disappear. ECM one is more of a problem for now

I've probably explained this terribly

CS - its tough to see for sure because there is no ECM T132 chart but i think the same thing occurs on ecm as gfs with energy dropping through svaalbard. we'll maybe see in an hour when T120 ecm op reveals what the T132 was like earlier

[Captain Shortwave]

CS - its tough to see for sure because there is no ECM T132 chart but i think the same thing occurs on ecm as gfs with energy dropping through svaalbard. we'll maybe see in an hour when T120 ecm op reveals what the T132 was like earlier

Actually you are probably right, note to self look at full northern hemisphere chart

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would say for the record that the shortwave in the GFS run just now and the one in the ECM are different and evolve differently

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?05-12

The ECM one forms in Scandinavia from a cut off section of cold 500mb temps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?12

GFS one is formed by small parcels of energy going north east from Greenland which drop into the weakness of the ridge (between the cut off high to our north and the main russian block)

The GFS one should not be of a worry at the moment as these shortwaves have ebbed and flowed from run to run (it was present on the 6z, but much weaker) If less energy goes north this shortwave should disappear. ECM one is more of a problem for now

I've probably explained this terribly

No summed up perfectly fine, that was my initial reaction too.

[snowking]

CS - its tough to see for sure because there is no ECM T132 chart but i think the same thing occurs on ecm as gfs with energy dropping through svaalbard. we'll maybe see in an hour when T120 ecm op reveals what the T132 was like earlier

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Havnt got the time to look myself at the moment but that runs at 6hr intervals up to 144

If not I can post up an animation from the ECM suite I have access to which runs at 6hr intervals up to 240 once I'm back from work

SK

I

[TEITS]

Mist is clearing but the exact detail for Sunday is tricky. At the moment once the LP clears a small window of opportunity for snow showers on Monday in E areas. Beyond and we're likely to see more snow move into the W during next week which may bring a brief rise in temps. However at the moment im going for very cold temps to return, even bitterly cold temps around the 17/18th Feb.

Alot of winter ahead of us yet and its going to finish with a bang and im not referring to this weekends snow event either. My instincts yet again are telling me the period between 17/18th Feb to the end of the month is going to be the highlight of the winter!

[pages]

nogaps is even better than the ukmo, been very consistent lately.... I wonder whether its been upgraded to the navgem already in all but name. Usually all over the show from run to run.

[SE Blizzards]

nogaps is even better than the ukmo, been very consistent lately.... I wonder whether its been upgraded to the navgem already in all but name. Usually all over the show from run to run.

GFS is in real danger of getting trumped by the NOGAPS. If that happens then it will be well and truly embarrassing for the GFS.

As far as i know it hasn't been upgraded yet, but someone with more knowledge than me might be able to confirm this.

Edited February 5, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[bluearmy]

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

Havnt got the time to look myself at the moment but that runs at 6hr intervals up to 144

If not I can post up an animation from the ECM suite I have access to which runs at 6hr intervals up to 240 once I'm back from work

SK

I

the area in question isnt quite shown but you can see enough to show the shortwave dropping in. CC - where are you on this one ?? !! only 35 mins before our fate is sealed on this particular issue

Edited February 5, 2013 by bluearmy

[Cheshire Freeze]

the area in question isnt quite shown but you can see enough to show the shortwave dropping in. CC - where are you on this one ?? !! only 35 mins before our fate is sealed on this particular issue

Hmmm I think the ECM will continue with the shortwave. Like you say though, it's positioning and movement will be crucial. I'm only really looking ahead to Sun/Mon at the moment as I feel we can get a good snow event out of it if enough energy drops south and east rather than going NE. Get more energy going south and even with the SW we'll squeeze an extra day or 2 out of the evolution.

Looking very similar to how the December cold spell collapsed though I must admit, even though synoptics come about in different ways.

Even if the shortwave does spoil things, my ears are pricked by the suggestion of greenland height rises 3rd week of Feb with a trough dropping south. I really think we're 'on' for a cold end of Feb.....quite a strong suggestion (this far out) of this on the GEFS mean....

Edited February 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[beefy201]

Agreed ,

But I do sound harsh , so I apologise , again !

I guess 4 years of Ian's M O D E R N winter tosh , and always talking down what the charts actually show , has had an effect on me .

No offence intended.

Back to the models , it's interesting to see things shaping up as they are , the gfs in fi has regularly gone for heights toward Iceland , then Greenland toward the back end of fi , also to hear a few LRF going for a very cold February , also over on TWO I see Brian has consistently shared his confidence in a potential cold feb , especially the middle . So maybe this is our month this year ? I know traditionally February was our snowiest month in the past but more recent years have seen feb been nothing more than a mild horrible squid .

If you dont start behaving yourself i will take you to see MR Brassington

[Ian Brown]

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

No it's not - it might look great initially but it is just a result of the trough dropping to the South and the UK being in between HP to the NE and SW - it is not a convective easterly bringing snow showers and is unsustainable.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

Actually we in Ireland (especailly the east) have done very well out of easterlies in the past as long as they advect westwards enough - the eaterly in Jan gone did not..................many others have

EWS

[snowmadchrisuk]

nogaps is even better than the ukmo, been very consistent lately.... I wonder whether its been upgraded to the navgem already in all but name. Usually all over the show from run to run.

I have to say No Gaps got the setup for the end of the Week around the same time that the ECMWF did, So IMO 10 day stats should at least show that it did better than GFS .. I would like to know if some of the new data for it's replacement has already been put into the Model , as it seems to have improved loads.

[Ian Brown]

East of Ireland do very well when they get an easterly, irish sea is a snow machine

And this is no such easterly.