Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=264&ext=1&y=12&run=12&runpara=0

Not warm if the GEFS are to be believed

[Long haul to mild]

Just been catching up on the model thread for the day and only just noticed that it's bucketing down with snow here and settling too! So took a walk outside to enjoy it.

Note to self; don't be looking for the next snow event when one is going on outside!

[Ian Brown]

Agreed ,

But I do sound harsh , so I apologise , again !

I guess 4 years of Ian's M O D E R N winter tosh , and always talking down what the charts actually show , has had an effect on me .

No offence intended.

Back to the models , it's interesting to see things shaping up as they are , the gfs in fi has regularly gone for heights toward Iceland , then Greenland toward the back end of fi , also to hear a few LRF going for a very cold February , also over on TWO I see Brian has consistently shared his confidence in a potential cold feb , especially the middle . So maybe this is our month this year ? I know traditionally February was our snowiest month in the past but more recent years have seen feb been nothing more than a mild horrible squid .

Brian nearly always forecasts a Feb easterly, he was very much 'against' the last cold spell happening because he didn't forecast it.

The GFS shows a great profile from the middle to the end of it's run but unfortunately it can't be trusted this side of T120 !

[shaky]

Nothing yet on the ecmwf???😳

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note gfs is suggesting height risse over greenland in the longer term, yes Its a long way away but Itss the first time Its really shown such rises all winter, and despite my greivencies with the gfs, it is the best model in my view when it comes to longer term developments to out nw, it is not Good with long term developments to out ne. So my attention longer term is on developments to out nw, the esclusive greenland high has in my opinion far more chance of verifying in the second half of feb than at any other stage this winter. Interesting to note weather outlook has home with a cold end to feb as well.

[Long haul to mild]

Still going nicely on the ECM at T120

[Steady Easterly]

No it's not - it might look great initially but it is just a result of the trough dropping to the South and the UK being in between HP to the NE and SW - it is not a convective easterly bringing snow showers and is unsustainable.

Yes it is- because pressure is risiing nicely to our north and seems set to link up with the russian high, quite sustainable looking to me, meto 144 would prolong the cold.

Edited February 5, 2013 by STEADY EASTERLY

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

ECM at 120 looks like the ukmo at the same time frame

[bluearmy]

no shortwave at t120 dropping in. lets see what it makes of the energy from the euro trough at T144. promising

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing yet on the ecmwf???😳

looks good, but feel need position further west, looks like the uppers are mildish in the west, but cold in east

[weather eater]

Nothing yet on the ecmwf???😳

I like what I see so far

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hmm The ECM is rising 850's above -5 in the SW , that is the first time it has done this .. Will be interesting to see what it does with the low at +144

[Rocheydub]

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

ECM at 120 looks like the ukmo at the same time frame

Indeed, very consistent. Pity it doesn't advect the cold east enough for us in the reliable time-frame... Just a chilly affair.

**EDIT** The 144 just as consistent as the 168 was yesterday with the cold crossing over to us... I like this!

Edited February 5, 2013 by Rocheydub

[Long haul to mild]

T144

No shortwave spoiler this time maybe?

[TEITS]

Alot of snow showers moving into the E/SE at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[frosty ground]

Ecm not far from ukmet model. ... pressure lower in the Atlantic also

[snowmadchrisuk]

Back to -10 850's at +144 with Low pressure in the channel , that will do me son ..

[Cloud 10]

Boom?

[weather eater]

Very similar to the UKMO, now comes the bit the ECM has been less sure about, in no way is it crucial but it would still be better if it doesn’t follow the 00z output towards a quick breakdown. Do we think we could drop the BOOM stuff; it’s getting a bit dull now, how about KAPOW or SCHLONG, anything really.

Edited February 5, 2013 by weather eater

[snowmadchrisuk]

Interesting to note gfs is suggesting height risse over greenland in the longer term, yes Its a long way away but Itss the first time Its really shown such rises all winter, and despite my greivencies with the gfs, it is the best model in my view when it comes to longer term developments to out nw, it is not Good with long term developments to out ne. So my attention longer term is on developments to out nw, the esclusive greenland high has in my opinion far more chance of verifying in the second half of feb than at any other stage this winter. Interesting to note weather outlook has home with a cold end to feb as well.

I hope the Weather outlook is better than Weather online.. According to them it's 14 deg in the South with Heavy rain moving North ... (they can't even get the direction right it's pathetic)

Tuesday

Rain and strong winds sweeping northwards through Ireland, Wales and England today. The rain is going to be heavy at times in the south and west with a risk of flooding across Wales and Ireland as well as southwest England. Winds could be reaching severe gale force at times, with gusts of 60mph on western coasts. Drier for northern England and Scotlajnd at first, but then the cloud and rain reaching here by the afternoon. Highs at a mild 14C in southern England, 10C in northern Scotland

[Man With Beard]

T144

No shortwave spoiler this time maybe?

Possibility of heights into Greenland?

[cooling climate]

Cracking ECM t144 chart with heavy frontal snow and then heavy snow showers moving in.

The shortwave has dropped down much further east and from this position looks likely to

follow the flow round the high. With heights established to the north/northeast this should

help underpin the the high and also introduce even colder upper air into the flow.

The t168 chart should be a corker.

Could not ask for better so far.

[Snowman.]

Shortwave removed and pushed much further ENE.

Im cautious as this is where the GFS is at its prime moment as its shortwave forecast is accurate.

EDIT:

Next slider?

Edited February 5, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Rocheydub]

144 and 168 are great, but looks like collapsing to me, and not so much of a slider... Wait and see...

Yep, brings much milder conditions for a day, may be just temporary, and pushes height rises in Greenland as muted earlier back again.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Edited February 5, 2013 by Rocheydub

[SMU]

cracking 144 chart reminicent of my 30cms of snow in 2009 - with -11c pushing in-

168 more heavy snow showers in the e &SE in -10c air-

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?05-0

http://www.meteociel...F0-168.GIF?05-0

192 rain moving SE turning to snow in england as it hits the frigid SURFACE air

http://www.meteociel...M1-192.GIF?05-0

Atlantic alligned East V west which indicates a sliding low into 216-

A cracking set of euros- UKMO needs to back a tad west

**IGNORE THE GFS**

Edited February 5, 2013 by Steve Murr