Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[snowking]

0z ECM ensembles for Birmingham circa 1c from Thursday through until Tuesday/Wednesday:

The spread then begins from there, as evidenced by the box plots increasing median values...the line graphs at this point become a total mess and certainly temperature wise, there is no one discernible outcome

SK

Edited February 5, 2013 by snowking

[SomeLikeItHot]

A big downgrade from GFS 06z for some areas for the snow potential on Monday

Given that fairly major model disagreement at this time,

eg the GFS 6Z shows this

While the ECM shows

And the ECM For the same time frame.

I would think its too early to be worrying about exact snow location difference between two GFS runs. Both will almost certainly be wrong come the time, and indeed we should expect some change to the ECM which would at least change the likely location of any snow in this time frame.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A big downgrade from GFS 06z for some areas for the snow potential on Monday

This was the 06z run

And? Is that a gospel chart now?

Yep a v good read of the charts from TEITS, we had a little discussion on that.

Longer term....is the GFS smelling the coffee? This month 16-24 Feb coldest period of winter? this winter continues to 'descend'.....and it won't be mild from here on in either.

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

looking at the latest 15 dayer from exeter, one would think that either mogreps or the ukmo ens have trended colder

[pages]

CmA trending towards rjs. Prolonged cold, Azores high moving sw, Russian high movingwest, heights rise over Greenland and slider lows to the west.

[Ian Brown]

And? Is that a gospel chart now?

Yep a v good read of the charts from TEITS, we had a little discussion on that.

Longer term....is the GFS smelling the coffee? This month 16-24 Feb coldest period of winter? this winter continues to 'descend'.....and it won't be mild from here on in either.

BFTP

That's a bold prediction Fred obviously the upstream pattern is far better on todays GFS runs at days 9-10 but can we place much faith in that given the GFS performance ? Low heights to the NW and toppling Azores High must be favourite.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

That's a bold prediction Fred obviously the upstream pattern is far better on todays GFS runs at days 9-10 but can we place much faith in that given the GFS performance ? Low heights to the NW and toppling Azores High must be favourite.

So have you decided to ignore the anomaly charts then and what they predict ?

I would say that's the least likely option.

Northern blocking with a trough to the southeast of uk is the trend , I honestly don't understand why you say things the way you do Ian , given your knowledge as you've shown At times the only explanation I can think is your either a massive warm lover and always look through warm blinkers or your 90% of the time on a wind up.

Can you show us all evidence of your observations pls Ian ?

[Northern Sky]

I think to be fair to Ian he is looking at what has already been the pattern for the vast majority of this winter with low heights over Greenland. Looking at what the models show is the major part of this thread but it's interesting to see what members make of the predictions by using experience and instinct. I think that is what Ian is doing and there should always be a little room for that?

I hope he's wrong though

[hammerb32]

I think to be fair to Ian he is looking at what has already been the pattern for the vast majority of this winter with low heights over Greenland. Looking at what the models show is the major part of this thread but it's interesting to see what members make of the predictions by using experience and instinct. I think that is what Ian is doing and there should always be a little room for that?

I hope he's wrong though

Indeed, it's a worry when posters are being chastised so openly for offering their interpretations of where the models maybe heading just because it differs to what they want to see.

[snowmackem]

@SSIB,

I do enjoy your posts, but your last one inadverdently looks like you are having a right old dig at GP (I think however it is aimed at IB?)

[Beast of Plympton]

@SSIB,

I do enjoy your posts, but your last one inadverdently looks like you are having a right old dig at GP (I think however it is aimed at IB?)

Agreed. I very rarely post in here because I have very little experience of reading charts and don't want to look silly. However, I know GP is very good at reding charts and is on the whole very accurate.

Most of the people who read these forums want snow, and all are entitled to their opinion. Clearly you want snow SSIB and I hope you are right, but I can't ignore the expertise of others on here who are more right than wrong.

[Paul]

Why are we so fractious in here? Please have a read of your post before hitting the submit button and consider the tone you're taking and language you're using when disagreeing with someone - there's really no need to be unfriendly and disrespectful just because someone has a different opinion to you is there?

[Richie V]

I'm taking a break from model watching, it is easy to get clouded in and not actually see what the data is saying. No more charts for me til 18z tommorow. Others might be wise to do the same.

[TEITS]

I was asked earlier what my prediction was and after some searching I found one of my posts.

Posted on the 27th Jan.

Having had another look at the models here are the important dates for me.

2nd Feb

A shortlived N,ly which has good support from the models.

3rd Feb - 6th.

Return of W,lys.

7th Feb - 8th.

A N,ly developing as we see LP moving SE into Europe with blocking becoming established.

9th Feb to 15th.

Welcome back winter with a potentially bitter N/NE/E,ly.

http://forum.netweat...s/page__st__760

Rather pleased with my prediction.

Edited February 5, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

@SSIB,

I do enjoy your posts, but your last one inadverdently looks like you are having a right old dig at GP (I think however it is aimed at IB?)

Oh sorry if I came across abrupt , I certainly wasn't digging at GP , if you read my post I agree entirely with him , and not a dig at Ian b , but just gets a little tiresome of reading the same old predictable posts off Ian .

[legritter]

Idont usually comment on ongoing grudgies SNIPES knocking people down ,But i can tell you this there are alot of people not just in UK but from all over europe and n ,america who come on this site to enjoy and learn ,not only amateurs but professional meteorologists some i have met ,and they hold NET WEATHER High in weather forums .if some of us are going to get personal lets have a modell showdown thread where we can all blow raspberrys at each other from our prams .anyhow gang we are in a cold spell and absolutely anything could happen over next week or so we have brilliant synoptics cold air around and fronts queuing up ,should be buisy in here tonight . take note ,MET Office have come on board more today ,interesting times ahead .

[Timmytour]

Longer term....is the GFS smelling the coffee? This month 16-24 Feb coldest period of winter? this winter continues to 'descend'.....and it won't be mild from here on in either.

BFTP

If the GFS gets that right, will its reputation improve?

I'm looking at the current GFS run and as far as i can see there is at no point an Easterly over the UK upto and including T144.

Would I be right in saying that, were it to verify out to this time.....and hence go on to "smell the coffee"..... then that would surely somewhat knock the reputation of the ECM with its persistence with an Easterly through this period?

Edited February 5, 2013 by Timmytour

[Cheshire Freeze]

I was asked earlier what my prediction was and after some searching I found one of my posts.

Posted on the 27th Jan.

Having had another look at the models here are the important dates for me.

2nd Feb

A shortlived N,ly which has good support from the models.

3rd Feb - 6th.

Return of W,lys.

7th Feb - 8th.

A N,ly developing as we see LP moving SE into Europe with blocking becoming established.

9th Feb to 15th.

Welcome back winter with a potentially bitter N/NE/E,ly.

http://forum.netweat...s/page__st__760

Rather pleased with my prediction.

You were as miserable as sin before that Was up to me, Fred and Chiono to avert the depression from members

You did spot the potential early though so kudos where kudos is due.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

context - its clear that shaun is chastising ian and using his and stewarts posts as evidence.

Agreed ,

But I do sound harsh , so I apologise , again !

I guess 4 years of Ian's M O D E R N winter tosh , and always talking down what the charts actually show , has had an effect on me .

No offence intended.

Back to the models , it's interesting to see things shaping up as they are , the gfs in fi has regularly gone for heights toward Iceland , then Greenland toward the back end of fi , also to hear a few LRF going for a very cold February , also over on TWO I see Brian has consistently shared his confidence in a potential cold feb , especially the middle . So maybe this is our month this year ? I know traditionally February was our snowiest month in the past but more recent years have seen feb been nothing more than a mild horrible squid .

Edited February 5, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[TEITS]

You were as miserable as sin before that Was up to me, Fred and Chiono to avert the depression from members

You did spot the potential early though so kudos where kudos is due.

I certainly remember my negative comments!

Only just catching up with the 06Z output and for new members here is something you won't see very often.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130205/06/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Pretty rare to have that amount of scatter at +96.

Won't be able to view the 12Zs till later but im expecting the 12 GFS to be much closer to the UKMO/ECM than previous runs.

[Beast of Plympton]

Oh sorry if I came across abrupt , I certainly wasn't digging at GP , if you read my post I agree entirely with him , and not a dig at Ian b , but just gets a little tiresome of reading the same old predictable posts off Ian .

I apologise for reading your post wrong if thats the case. From what I can tell Ian B prefers warmer weather, which is of course a preference and one he is entitled to. We all want colder weather so when someone comes into the coldies forum and tells us its getting warm we don't like it!! As I am sure if we went into the summer forum and told Mr B an arctic front was on the way in June, he probably wouldn't like that.

However, facts are facts and whilst Ian does not generally put charts in his posts, I read it and move on. I really enjoying reading, and more importantly learning from the very informative posts in here, which includes those from you SSIB, however I generally value the posts with charts much more.

Thanks all so far for the fun this winter!!

Edited February 5, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Biensie]

Is it safe in here now?

[starstream]

its gone quiet..so I guess so...but gonna stick a hat on a broom and wave it about...just to check

[Methuselah]

Please stick to model discussion...

[NickyB]

Nice to see everyone all loved up again :-) Sorry mods :-)