Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Timmytour]

I remember TEITS predicting the onset of real winter, around 10/2. I don't recall any mention of a not-very-special 'event'...Dave?

To be fair.....if we do get an event around the 9th or 10th and this turns out to be "the second bite of the cherry". and that's all it is...well that in effect will have been all ECM has warranted the immense praise of late heaped upon it. So I wouldn't begrudge TEITS getting some of the same, particularly as i reckon he highlighted it before ECM did!

[bluearmy]

We still need to be care as this shortwave was picked up by the GFS who quickly dropped it.

ECM might have the same here so where unable to know until next run.

But when other models show it....

We have a problem.

Can you advise which run gfs showed this shortwave please. i want to see if it is euro or polar driven. from my perspective, there is a massive difference as i wouldnt expect a euro driven feature to cause the russian ridge the same problem as a polar one would.

dave, regarding the stand off on the ecm ens - it is a stand off but its edging east now whereas over the past couple of days it had edged west. we now have it east of the uk at day 10. naefs look spretty superb re cold through week 2 as could be expected given stewarts post on the gefs anomolys earlier.

Edited February 5, 2013 by bluearmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

swfc not on wetter.

Now that LP south of Greenland is slowly moving east squeezing the AZH south...wonder if it continues to go under the block to NE

Well it has chances, this says slider to me.....but its GFS so probably won't

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

06z seems to be stuck on 102 hrs???

It's still going on the netweather chart viewer page

Worlds most half hearted slider low attempt

[bobbydog]

It's still going on the netweather chart viewer page

Worlds most half hearted slider low attempt

half hearted??..... there is no low!!

[Methuselah]

To be fair.....if we do get an event around the 9th or 10th and this turns out to be "the second bite of the cherry". and that's all it is...well that in effect will have been all ECM has warranted the immense praise of late heaped upon it. So I wouldn't begrudge TEITS getting some of the same, particularly as i reckon he highlighted it before ECM did!

Me neither, T...That's why I asked Dave, himself, to remind of just what he said...Which he kindly did...

[bluearmy]

half hearted??..... there is no low!!

there is if you look on the high res chart. its very shallow though as it slides down the occlusion

[weather eater]

Not the greatest 06z, but I think today I will hang fire until after this evenings runs, it would be pretty typical if we get the GFS almost there that everything then goes downhill.

[Weathizard]

GFS almost looks as if its trying with all its might to resist letting it slide, and then as if by magic we have a slider at 252! You have to laugh haha!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the GFS version of event's has a massive Warm sector crossing the Country so certain rain for the SW and a lot of other areas if the GFS version of events rings true.

[bobbydog]

there is if you look on the high res chart. its very shallow though as it slides down the occlusion

blink and you'll miss it!

GFS

ECM

maybe Gavin's tried pumping it up.......

[chris55]

NAEFS keeping 850s below average throughout, 0c line hardy touched throughout.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=

[weather eater]

Double post delete please mods!

Yes funny how the best easterly setups are always just out of reach, that’s true of the ECM as well, by the time we get into high res we get OK but not fantastic.

[swfc]

biblical slider at 348 hrs like pulling hens teeth this

[bluearmy]

The 06z fi is hilarious. everything is there on a hemispheric basis. shattered vortex, west base neg NAO, large neg AO and for good measure a norwegian shortwave to prevent the deep cold being advected our way !

[Weathizard]

I advise for anyone do not look at this FI unless you want to be disappointed! Stunning evolution but it only causes heartache. Seems to have been a theme this winter seeing these setups in FI only for a shortwave or something else stupid to ride in and ruin the fun!

Still I hope even if we don't get prolonged cold we can get a big snow event for the country as the two biggies predict, rather than the damp squib for the majority on the GFS. That's not to say I've given up hope of prolonged cold this winter just foreseeing something going wrong like it usually does!

[Cheshire Freeze]

It took all winter but the Greenland high wants to make a cameo. Testing out its new house in preparation for a permanent move come June....

[bobbydog]

you couldn't make it up........

maybe the GFS should be called F.F.S......

Edited February 5, 2013 by bobbydog

[carinthian]

Great winter charts on this latest GFS run,especially day 10 to 15. Shades of February 47 ? Snow fest for the South of England ? Long way off, but looks nice !

C

[chris55]

If we look at how all the models deal with Sundays Low pressure we can see that ECM - UKMO- GEM - NOGAPS all have the Lows centre somewhere around the English channel. GFS on the other hand has a very different chart with the lows centre to the north of Scotland! GFS out on it's own on this one.

GFS

[Methuselah]

Please use this thread:

[Man With Beard]

Just wanted to make a comment on the ECM's performance recently. I think it is getting a bit of unmerited criticism. Since T240 5 days ago, it has consistently shown height rises to the NE with possible snow events. Down to T120 and its still telling the same story, and all the other models have come towards it somewhat. True, over the past few days it has hinted at a stronger easterly and a more prolonged cold spell, but it has never consistently promised these more extreme scenarios. I personally think this has been one of the ECMs finest moments - to get the general pattern right from so far out, especially considering how hard it is to model a 'non-Atlantic' pattern, is impressive.

Edited February 5, 2013 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

Tomorrow the Gfs 06z shows quite a strong Northerly blast, arctic lite its probably the best way of describing it as the uppers are not that cold but it's still cold enough for snow showers to affect n and e scotland and ne and e england, and then the se, some accumulations and drifting for the areas most affected.

[Summer Sun]

A big downgrade from GFS 06z for some areas for the snow potential on Monday

This was the 06z run

Edited February 5, 2013 by Gavin.

[Kentspur]

Not a big downgrade for all, in my area that's an upgrade and we've seen probably the least snow out of most areas so far this winter