Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Winter Monsoon]

Bank!

Unfortunatly it wont happen. Time and again the models have shown easterlies/northerlies only for them to disapear in short order. In fact im supprised that anyone is taking anything +96hrs seriously. Lost all faith in the models this winter. Massive snow events downgrading to mere rain within 24hrs of the event itself.

This weekend i fear is going to be a non event for most except those in the east yet again, hasnt anyone noticed that the cold air just hasnt been there this winter -12 850's isnt tat cold considering past winters have had lower not that far away.

Day time maxes of 0c i would consider cold and v cold would be maxes of -2c and below but i suppose my view has been tainted by the 2009/2010 winter where i had lying snow for a month and temps on the whole below zero. I suppose that winter really was my once in a lifetime event.....shame

[nicknacknoo]

As its quiet here at the mo, I thought I'd sum up my first impressions as a newbie to the forum.

1) The lesser spotted GH has been absent without leave all season despite indications to the contrary

2) Fi charts that depict favourable cold outcomes never verify....... zonal patterns do

3) Horrible 'shortwaves' keep popping up to ruin our chances although I suspect that poor synoptics are allowing this to happen

4) This winter has been characterised by flimsy synoptics over the near continent and nasty persistent 'PV stuff' over the other side of the pond

5) Low heights to the west, no heights to the northwest and high lows to the east with impossible low lows to the centre.

6) The GFS is good in the short term... apart from when it isn't

7) The ECM is good in the long term...apart from when it isn't

IB and G are true sun worshippers

Heres hoping that the latest 18Z +252 verifies.... one of them's got to one day.

Nick

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

CMA12z is a great run.

Look he wants to go for a major block .

Alliantie with the Artic/Greenland/Atlantik.

En this is what i am hinting the all week for the 3e decade februari a coldy norderly or NE .

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

The Braziliaan model ; comes with a another slider low .

180 hours.

At this moment by me , heavy snow shouere again unexpected , en he is not moving anywere.

There is no much gradient in the upper air , i think..

I am very curius wat the 00z runs will bring.

[Chris D]

As its quiet here at the mo, I thought I'd sum up my first impressions as a newbie to the forum.

1) The lesser spotted GH has been absent without leave all season despite indications to the contrary

2) Fi charts that depict favourable cold outcomes never verify....... zonal patterns do

3) Horrible 'shortwaves' keep popping up to ruin our chances although I suspect that poor synoptics are allowing this to happen

4) This winter has been characterised by flimsy synoptics over the near continent and nasty persistent 'PV stuff' over the other side of the pond

5) Low heights to the west, no heights to the northwest and high lows to the east with impossible low lows to the centre.

6) The GFS is good in the short term... apart from when it isn't

7) The ECM is good in the long term...apart from when it isn't

IB and G are true sun worshippers

Heres hoping that the latest 18Z +252 verifies.... one of them's got to one day.

Nick

Perfect summary.

Tbh, no significant stuff anywhere in the medium term (wrt to GFS 18z and ECM 12z), with no significant height anomalies anywhere near the UK. Low heights to the W and relatively high heights to our east. Nothing moving anywhere fast. But, potentially interesting battle(s) occurring, out to 200hrs.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Chris D

[Zenarcher]

Latest NAE charts,

Sunday 12pm Northern England looks good for snow,

Monday 12am Snow reaching into Scotland and parts of Northern England, Midlands and South East,

Monday 6am Snow affecting the same parts but Southern England could see more at this time,

In the longer term the Atlantic does look really weak as the GFS shows,

And UKMO at 144h not as flat as last nights run as it also makes the Atlantic weaker,

[Rocheydub]

Nothing to interest snow and cold lovers on the 00z GFS. No height rises in Greenland, and no slider lows dragging colder air our way. A flabby north European high having very little pressure exerted on it by the Atlantic, until low res kicks in.

Could be very cool/cold on some of the nights though under those slack flows and clear skies!

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look at the Canadian model at 120 hours.

He let it slide , another slider snow low !.

End afterwards the block,

A great run from GEM 00z.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look at tis wonderful chart agian from the Candian weathermodel.

There is no explaining needed in here ; COLD en possible snow events !

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look again the latest CFS daily again the March cold wich i have predicted at basis os so many CFS daily runs.

But also version 9 is telling this now for more than a week.

Also some data from the Cma en JMA hinting that way , it doenst mean for sure afcors that that indeed wil happen , but he shows it every time , with some support now.

Look 1 chart from the latest 18z daily .

En you members en guest saw earlier lof of other charts from me about the CFS , we will continue to follow this op.

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone up for the ECM as on phone would like to know what it is showing

[Tom Jarvis]

Just had a look at charts on phone channel low at 192hours anyone

Followed by the beast from the east at 216 hours

Edited February 10, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[Tony Beets]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9952/ECM1-192_cwh6.GIF

192 hours on ECM the high finally starts to put cold uppers our way, love where they come from.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just had a look at charts on phone channel low at 192hours anyone

Followed by the beast from the east at 216 hours

Low Wed attempts to slide but fails , It then goes NE and fills. , High pressure then builds over the UK and pretty boring Weather , until +192 when it finally starts to rise and get an undercut as below ..

And by +240

[Tony Beets]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5748/ECH1-240_jzs8.GIF

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2279/ECH0-240_uro4.GIF

I'm happy with the end of the ECM run, n hem blocking evident and again signs of a Greenland high along with scanny high.

[TEITS]

Im still to half a sleep to make a long detailed post, damn cat woke me up at 6am tapping my face!!

The 0Z ECM is miles better than the 12Z although unsurprising considering the 12z was much milder than the mean. If you take into account todays ECM and some of the excellent GFS runs yesterday then the outlook appears to suggest another possible snowfall midweek before turning less cold end of this week. However a chance it could turn colder from the E next weekend followed by a possible N,ly from the 21st onwards.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just to add the UKMO also sends the low NE on Wednesday and fills it , Before High pressure builds Over the UK, ... Basicly Wednesday Low weakens the block to the North and we have to wait to try again after as the Atlantic is still week.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Im still to half a sleep to make a long detailed post, damn cat woke me up at 6am tapping my face!!

The 0Z ECM is miles better than the 12Z although unsurprising considering the 12z was much milder than the mean. If you take into account todays ECM and some of the excellent GFS runs yesterday then the outlook appears to suggest another possible snowfall midweek before turning less cold end of this week. However a chance it could turn colder from the E next weekend followed by a possible N,ly from the 21st onwards.

Latest NAE for 18z tonight ... Is that your house in the Blue circle TETIS lol

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

After Gem the Canadian model wich was very cold en wintry pattern , now comes the ECMWF 00z with a huge operationele run.

This means a full scale conctructief retro proces .

If this become true it really will prolon the cold outbreaks with snow .

After that the Highpressure moves towards Greenland /Iceland at 240.

In that case , ist a full scale winter attack even as we go further in the month or beyond that.

Well at least something is going on people ,.Becouse look the GEM ect and the 500 mb anomalie charts ensemble.Nao /Ao combination index .

It might be not so ,but i really think we have a good chance for this verdion or other kind , but all wintry.

Becouse i really dont see a strong zonal atlantik.

Perhaps 2 or 3 days interlude by changing the watch orso.

[snowmadchrisuk]

And the GFS isn't as bad as it may look to some ... Plenty of Greenland Blocking chances and it attempts to build several time and Atlantic remains fairly dead ..

[Frosty.]

The good news from the 00z is no mild weather at all, more good news, after a brief less cold blip from midweek, it looks like much colder weather will be coming back, next weekend looks rather cold again and then the following week could be much colder with snow and severe frosts, you can take your pick from easterlies and northerlies on the ecm and gfs 00z respectively and a frosty anticyclonic spell later in the month.

The first half of the week will be cold with widespread frosts and ice and some snow showers in the north, during wednesday an atlantic low pushes fronts into the cold air and brings snow from the west with strengthening Sly to SEly winds, then it becomes a little less cold but still cold enough for overnight frosts. The cold block remains poised to the east and northeast and then as the atlantic weakens even more, the cold air returns.

In the short term we have rain, sleet and snow in all areas today and more widespread snow this evening and tonight as cold air from the east digs in, disruptive snow is likely, also a lot of snow showers for the northeast, especially e and ne scotland.

[Methuselah]

Latest NAE for 18z tonight ... Is that your house in the Blue circle TETIS lol

I know it's early, Chris; but are you sure that that's a circle?

[Frosty.]

I know it's early, Chris; but are you sure that that's a circle?

more like a perfect blue square really

[Polar Maritime]

TETIS wont be happy about this blue box...

Edited February 10, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Mini tiger]

Latest NAE charts,

Sunday 12pm Northern England looks good for snow,

Monday 12am Snow reaching into Scotland and parts of Northern England, Midlands and South East,

Monday 6am Snow affecting the same parts but Southern England could see more at this time,

In the longer term the Atlantic does look really weak as the GFS shows,

And UKMO at 144h not as flat as last nights run as it also makes the Atlantic weaker,

Looks like the sweet spot will be central southern england a fair bit in land from the coast

Why is there a blue rain area at midnight over parts of Cambs, and norfolk ? Is this signs

of a warm sector or less cold air being drawn in down the wash ? It then turns light pink

around dawn !?!