Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[NickR]

I'm conveniently going to be in Keswick again this weekend, although I'll be back on Sunday morning / early afternoon to see the fun and games (hopefully).

That's the most sure-fire indicator that we will get snow that I've heard!

[Geordiesnow]

People got to remember that the last easterly was NOT convective at all, the snowfall we seen came via a trough, one advantage we may have this time is that the air could very well be colder so any snow should not turn wet as it did after a while on the first occasion.

Whether this easterly will be a sunshine and shower one I'm not too sure, depends on what orientation the flow is, the 18Z perhaps give us a slight reminder that this is not guranteed to be an ENE'ly set up, it could very well be a stright easterly and this run has lower thicknesses which may mean less chance of convection?

[peterf]

nice to see you looking positive GS, have you been unwell?

[peterf]

end of the day it's coming and we know that,i'm not worried regards snow and how much for different areas of our domain.

it will do whatever it chooses to do on the day,nobody really knows the outcome because the event hasn't happened yet.

short lived blast of winter is how i see it at present,with the proviso of less cold but below average temps as the week draws out.

[NickR]

People got to remember that the last easterly was NOT convective at all, the snowfall we seen came via a trough, one advantage we may have this time is that the air could very well be colder so any snow should not turn wet as it did after a while on the first occasion.

Whether this easterly will be a sunshine and shower one I'm not too sure, depends on what orientation the flow is, the 18Z perhaps give us a slight reminder that this is not guranteed to be an ENE'ly set up, it could very well be a stright easterly and this run has lower thicknesses which may mean less chance of convection?

HI again GS... I have a feeling we could see some on Saturday but I remain to be convinced about Sun/Mon... seems to be like the strongest feed (and hence hte proper snowfall) is for the Wash southwards.. up here we seem to be slacker. Or am I reading this wrong?

TWS - any thoughts on Sat/Sun/Mon?

Is my thinking wrong? (It usually is!)

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is still scope for change, as the GFS 18Z run is rather different to the earlier runs (showing a slower southward movement of the easterly flow, and a slow-moving front over the south on Sunday).

On the basis of present projections the region is looking at grey damp weather until Sunday, then on Sunday a rain belt will head south, turning to sleet/snow on its northern flank, followed by the main easterly blast (the front is more likely to turn to snow widely as it slows down further south).

Following behind, the skew-t predictions for East Lothian have a "dry" lid on convection above the 800hPa level.

http://cdn.nwstatic....tLothian-84.png

This suggests that convection may be pretty shallow, but not shallow enough to result in stratocumulus stuck underneath an inversion (during the late-February easterly, we generally got dry cloudy weather when the cap got below the 850hPa level). A fair amount of cloud, occasional sunny intervals, and scattered light to moderate snow showers is the most likely result IMHO, with most parts of the region seeing up to a few centimetres overnight Sunday/Monday, though locally there may be 5-10cm or barely a dusting due to the hit-and-miss nature of showers.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Geordiesnow]

HI again GS... I have a feeling we could see some on Saturday but I remain to be convinced about Sun/Mon... seems to be like the strongest feed (and hence hte proper snowfall) is for the Wash southwards.. up here we seem to be slacker. Or am I reading this wrong?

TWS - any thoughts on Sat/Sun/Mon?

Is my thinking wrong? (It usually is!)

As TWS says, there is suggestions this easterly could be a fairly dry one on a convective POV, I don't know if those Skew charts are based on the 18Z run which on the face of it does look more stable than say the 12Z GFS run or the ECM/UKMO runs but going by the PPN charts, convection does look limited once again.

That said, any troughs that form could give more substancial snowfall but at this range, its uncertain to say how much snowfall there be. The BBC seems to of playing it down on recent forecasts than say previous forecasts.

[Summer Sun]

A wet start in darlo today

Latest text forecast for the weekend from the met office

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Brighter with sunny spells but also some sleet or snow showers, and feeling very cold in brisk northeast or north winds.

Spring on hold as cold and snow return

After our brief taste of spring, winter will bite back as cold air from the east sends temperatures plummeting over the next few days.

BBC Weather's Stav Danaos has the details.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21699739

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0837 on Fri 8 Mar 2013

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1200 on Saturday and 0800 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Turning colder over the weekend as cold air spreads south across the country during Saturday. Also during Saturday, a band a rain will move south across England and rain is expected to turn increasingly to sleet or snow down to low levels by the evening. Further snow showers are expected to follow into some eastern parts with a risk of a period of heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. The cold weather will also be exacerbated across all areas for a time by brisk easterly winds bringing a marked wind chill. This spell of cold weather is expected to last across most areas until at least Tuesday and perhaps longer.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/

Edited March 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

Could we get a few surprises from the front on Saturday or are we to far North?

[Summer Sun]

Although snow warnings are been issued its looking marginal at lower levels according to the chief forecaster at UKMO thats not to say some temporary accumulations won't happen

Rain is expected to turn to snow on Saturday, more particularly on high ground but with an increasing risk at lower levels. 5 cm or so could accumulate above 200 m in the Pennines, whilst ice forming on power lines in strong winds poses a threat of local power cuts. Ice on roads and pavements will also be a risk, especially in the north of the region. At low levels the main risk of snow is later in the day, and a lot of falling snow will melt on the ground, though some accumulations of a few cm here could not be ruled out.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Cold air coming south and cutting underneath a frontal zone will bring the risk of snow and ice. Temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels, and the ground has been warmed by the recent mild spell, though any sustained intensity could allow accumulations even to low levels. Winds on high ground could gust to more than 50 MPH increasing the risk of damage where rain freezes on power lines, especially over the north Pennines.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1362787200&regionName=ne&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

Edited March 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

No widespread warnings so far....are the Met Office discounting the possibility of convection?

[Summer Sun]

No widespread warnings so far....are the Met Office discounting the possibility of convection?

Its looking like this may be a dry north easterly wind on Sunday and Monday with most of the convection occurring down in the south

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Had a bit of sleet already today here in Consett so by tomorrow could be snow on the way.

[Boro Snow]

looking at the met forecast its sleet for darlo tommorrow and light snow for sun, dry and cold after that with sharp frosts for mon and tues, the gfs is showing snow for here tommorrow i doubt that will happen, and what a horrible day it is today drizzle n cold

[Andy_]

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Brighter with sunny spells but also some sleet or snow showers, and feeling very cold in brisk northeast or north winds.

Showers still expected, but perhaps not as plentiful or intense as first expected. Shame really given the uppers, we'll see... snow showers are unpredictable beasts as we all know.

[NickR]

looking at the met forecast its sleet for darlo tommorrow and light snow for sun, dry and cold after that with sharp frosts for mon and tues, the gfs is showing snow for here tommorrow i doubt that will happen, and what a horrible day it is today drizzle n cold

Those automated forecasts are not worth the pixels they light up TBH - not worth bothering about.

[Snowmaggedon]

Well RJS in the Mod reckons we could see 10-15cm in favoured areas provided the North Sea delivers

[Boro Snow]

Those automated forecasts are not worth the pixels they light up TBH - not worth bothering about.

i no mate i tack them with a pinch of salt along with the bbc weather ones

[Summer Sun]

Latest NAE for Sunday

[Snowmaggedon]

Latest NAE for Sunday

Ooo the potential is certainly there for some accumulations

[Alex95]

Sunday and Sunday night look very snowy to me, then Monday will see the showers dying away as the flow becomes less unstable.

[Summer Sun]

Snow accumulation for the same time as the chart just above

Looking at it in the SE it could be sleety as it melts very quickly 03:00 below 12:00 noon above

[Alex95]

Yeah those snow depth charts are pretty rubbish in North Sea events, the two charts just don't match up at all!

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the 12z GFS the south coast looks the place to be with the channel low moving further north tonight

[NickR]

Looking at the 12z GFS the south coast looks the place to be with the channel low moving further north tonight

I don't mind the S Coast getting a decent dumping - they have to put up with pretty awful snow chances most of the time.

I think we'll see something, but once again the convective potential looks like being watered down from what was forecast. I've never known a winter with such poor convection. we've had next to nothing!