Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[Summer Sun]

He's not talking about anything being marginal in terms of snow falling. He's talking about snow lying.

Ah thanks for that, the next few days will be a case of watching the models and see whether they downgrade this event slightly or keep it coming as its showing tonight

[peterf]

rang around most of the lads that are due to start lambing next week.explained the potential and thankfully we will have some nice snug newborns undercover instead of out in the open.

who says forums cant be a lifesaver.

[JP1972]

Nottingham forest have overtook

[Alex95]

The ENE'ly on Sunday and Monday could well be the most potent we've seen since 1991 - maybe not in terms of snow depths, but certainly in the intensity of the cold easterly wind. I expect to see plenty of drifting powdery snow by Monday.

[NickR]

The ENE'ly on Sunday and Monday could well be the most potent we've seen since 1991 - maybe not in terms of snow depths, but certainly in the intensity of the cold easterly wind. I expect to see plenty of drifting powdery snow by Monday.

As usual convection doesn't show up too well on GFS - the South has some persistent snow on Sunday morning/pm. Are we looking at similar amounts too from convection?

[Alex95]

As usual convection doesn't show up too well on GFS - the South has some persistent snow on Sunday morning/pm. Are we looking at similar amounts too from convection?

Fingers crossed - the fact that some precipitation is being shown suggests that we will get plenty of convection from this, as the models usually look bone dry if the North Sea isn't going to deliver the goods. With 850s getting close to -15 and a clean ENE flow I don't see how we will miss out here, unless it gets watered down before then of course.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Exeter from Ian fergusson

Hi Gibby: your summary pretty much replicates Exeter views. They also call for milder/wetter inroads being made later into 10-15d period but possibly earlier

Milder weather is shown to arrive later next week this morning with Monday looking the coldest day of the week for us after which temperatures slowly recover 1c Monday 5c Tuesday to Thursday

Get this cold spell out the way and then I can hopefully focus fully on the Garden plenty to do still veg to plant out and the lawn needs cutting

Edited March 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Based on the 00z GFS run this cold spell looks like producing 2 very cold days (Sunday & Monday) after this temperatures slowly recover

Monday is another very cold day nation wide

Into Tuesday and temperature start to recover with highs of 7c for some 5c widely down the east snow fall will become increasingly confined to higher ground

On Thursday we again see highs of 5 to 7c widely

So in summary a 48 hour really cold spell is on the way after this we see temperatures slowly rise still below the seasonal average but it will become too warm for snowfall away from high ground and the far north of Scotland where it stays colder

Edited March 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Boro Snow]

Latest from Exeter from Ian fergusson

Milder weather is shown to arrive later next week this morning with Monday looking the coldest day of the week for us after which temperatures slowly recover 1c Monday 5c Tuesday to Thursday

Get this cold spell out the way and then I can hopefully focus fully on the Garden plenty to do still veg to plant out and the lawn needs cutting

but how fast do the models change and i suspect things will change again and the cold will stay around a little bit longer than sun and mon

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think both of you are right to some extent- the cold will stay around much longer than Sunday/Monday, but it will moderate somewhat. Maxes of 5 to 7C are still rather below the long-term average for mid-March.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

but how fast do the models change and i suspect things will change again and the cold will stay around a little bit longer than sun and mon

Yes I agree it will still chilly next week but the coldest weather looks like lasting around 48 hours where highs will struggle to get much above 1c, after this they'll slowly rise to around 5c from Tuesday to Thursday or Friday which is still below average but they'll be too high for snow at low levels

[Summer Sun]

Met office forecast for the NE this weekend

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy again Saturday with some further rain but then drier later. Colder and windy for Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a few sleet or snow showers.

[Snowmaggedon]

Met office forecast for the NE this weekend

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy again Saturday with some further rain but then drier later. Colder and windy for Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a few sleet or snow showers.

That's not overly encouraging. Does that take into account the possibility of convection?

[Alex95]

I'm pretty confident the NE will get heavy snow on Sunday and Monday, before it turns to slush on Tuesday, and more especially Wednesday. It still looks cold after that though and there seems to be a growing trend for more cold blasts mid month.

[Summer Sun]

That's not overly encouraging. Does that take into account the possibility of convection?

That just gives a general outlook the north sea can strike at anytime in situations like this as 2010 proved any snow though will only be temporary the next 48 hours will be crucial its just a case now of seeing if we get any downgrades or not

Here is the 16:00 update

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy again Saturday as further outbreaks of rain, this turning wintry on the hills later. Colder and windy on Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a few sleet or snow showers.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

That just gives a general outlook the north sea can strike at anytime in situations like this as 2010 proved any snow though will only be temporary the next 48 hours will be crucial its just a case now of seeing if we get any downgrades or not

Here is the 16:00 update

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy again Saturday as further outbreaks of rain, this turning wintry on the hills later. Colder and windy on Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a few sleet or snow showers.

Thanks! Met Office forecast shows snow on Sunday Night and Monday....Bring it on!

[Boro Snow]

STILL COLD AT 168 ON THE ECM NO SIGN OF SPRING WHAT SO EVER

Edited March 7, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Boro Snow]

PAUL MOONEY 3 DEGRESS ON MONDAY (REALLY)

[Boro Snow]

STILL AT 192 UNDER -8 UPPERS WHATEVA FALLS FROM THE SKY SHOULD BE SNOW

[Summer Sun]

PAUL MOONEY 3 DEGRESS ON MONDAY (REALLY)

Met office high for Monday is 0c expect that temperature to be lowered on the 22:35 broadcast

[seabreeze86]

People seem to be playing down snow chances due to lack of precip . Some people never learn, snow can crop up at 24 hours notice it has done so many times in the past. We have a 24 to 36 hour window from sunday dinner time until monday where the uppers are below -10.

Even the high res models get it wrong a few hours out.

My prediction 2-5 cm quite widespread in our region with more in favored places, althogh it will thaw rapidly if the sun gets out.

Reason for prediction is i think we are far enough away from the low to the south to see cloud breaks so convection will be widespread.

Lets hope im right for a change

Edit I meant -10 s until tuesday

Edited March 7, 2013 by seabreeze86

[Alex95]

I'm conveniently going to be in Keswick again this weekend, although I'll be back on Sunday morning / early afternoon to see the fun and games (hopefully).

[peterf]

chainsawed 2 telegraph poles today.me and the wood burner are now ready for anything Mother Nature has in store.

[peterf]

That just gives a general outlook the north sea can strike at anytime in situations like this as 2010 proved any snow though will only be temporary the next 48 hours will be crucial its just a case now of seeing if we get any downgrades or not

Here is the 16:00 update

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy again Saturday as further outbreaks of rain, this turning wintry on the hills later. Colder and windy on Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a few sleet or snow showers.

Which was outdated at 16:01 today.

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Sunday has a trough incoming from the North-East.

I'm thinking one of these could be the way forward.

Suzuki jimny 4x4,small petrol engine,fairly cheap to tax and insure compared to the usual

huge 4x4's.

Should handle any snow easily as well as the crap potholed roads around here.