Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[Summer Sun]

I don't mind the S Coast getting a decent dumping - they have to put up with pretty awful snow chances most of the time.

I think we'll see something, but once again the convective potential looks like being watered down from what was forecast. I've never known a winter with such poor convection. we've had next to nothing!

For us here in the NE its going to be a case of seeing if the north sea will produce anything if not cloudy and cold will sum up Sunday for us then cloudy and cold on Monday but possible becoming brighter in the afternoon once brighter skies move down leaving us a sunny and cold Tuesday.

Just had a look at the TWO forecast for Darlo page 2 and 3 is sunny through out! http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/ukwf/Darlington,Darlington

[Summer Sun]

Snow and biting winds for the North East this weekend

SNOW and biting winds will return to the North-East this weekend with weather warnings for up to five cm of snow on high ground. Heavy rain today (Friday, March 8th) will turn to snow tonight as temperatures drop below zero. The region will endure a dull day tomorrow (Saturday), with forecasters predicting cloud with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow on higher ground. A MeteoGroup forecaster said: “It will feel pretty cold with a brisk wind from the east. Temperatures are unlikely to get above four or five degrees.â€

Looking ahead to Mother’s Day, forecasters predict that the sleet and snow will ease off, with clearer skies and some sunshine to melt any light snowfall. Despite the brighter weather, temperatures are unlikely to get above two degrees on Sunday. On Monday, temperatures are unlikely to be above zero anywhere in the country.

While not record-breaking lows for March, temperatures are below average, with no sign of a respite in the near future.

http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/local/darlington/10278064.Snow_and_biting_winds_for_the_North_East_this_weekend/

[Boro Snow]

Sky news this morning showed snow for the whole of the north east tonight

[Boro Snow]

STILL UNDER -8 UPPERS AT 144 BUT ONLY JUST THE COLDER UPPERS ARE STARTING TO HEAD BACK EAST

IM STILL LEARNING SO DONT SHOOT ME DOWN IF IM WRONG LOL, MY MINDSET AFTER THIS COLD BLAST IS DEFO CHANGING TO SPRING NOW AND A BIT OF WARMTH AND MANAGING THE GARDEN

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Sunday will be a day of sunshine and snow showers, though not on the scale of late November/early December 2010 (probably a fair amount of cloud, some sunny intervals and scattered light to moderate snow showers). As we head into Monday the weather is likely to turn increasingly dry and cloudy as a cap on convection spreads at the 600-850hPa level. Tuesday and Wednesday will be somewhat brighter with scattered wintry showers and temperatures up to 5-8C.

I am thinking that up to a few centimetres of snow will be quite widespread overnight Sunday/Monday, but 5-10cm falls will only be localised.

[Summer Sun]

STILL UNDER -8 UPPERS AT 144 BUT ONLY JUST THE COLDER UPPERS ARE STARTING TO HEAD BACK EAST

IM STILL LEARNING SO DONT SHOOT ME DOWN IF IM WRONG LOL, MY MINDSET AFTER THIS COLD BLAST IS DEFO CHANGING TO SPRING NOW AND A BIT OF WARMTH AND MANAGING THE GARDEN

For reference could you maybe post without the caps lock on please? as its often classed as shouting (not having a go at you just a polite request)

What is likely is temperatures will slowly but surely recover before the months out lets face it they (uppers) can't get much lower than they'll be on Monday. Brighter weather should arrive during next week with the sunshine offsetting the cold temperatures

By the time we get to W/C 20th I fell we'll see temps back getting back to around 10c (give or take 2c either side) once a westerly flow kicks in.

I personally except the warmest weather to arrive in April when somewhere in the UK will hit 20c +

Edited March 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[Boro Snow]

For reference could you maybe post without the caps lock on please? as its often classed as shouting (not having a go at you just a polite request)

What is likely is temperatures will slowly but surely recover before the months out lets face it they (uppers) can't get much lower than they'll be on Monday.

By the time we get to W/C 20th I fell we'll see temps back getting back to around 10c (give or take 2c either side) once a westerly flow kicks in.

I personally except the warmest weather to arrive in April when somewhere in the UK will hit 20c +

ok sorry i didnt realise, im hoping for a nice april its my birthday and wedding anniversary on the 16th so we usually go away to lakes amd the last 2 years have been quite good

[Alex95]

I don't mind the S Coast getting a decent dumping - they have to put up with pretty awful snow chances most of the time.

I think we'll see something, but once again the convective potential looks like being watered down from what was forecast. I've never known a winter with such poor convection. we've had next to nothing!

Have you forgotten the convective snow falls in January, as well as early December, and also two weeks ago?

I actually think this has been one of the better winters in terms of convective snow, although I'll admit some Armageddon scenarios have been shown on the models which always get downgraded.

[Summer Sun]

re to my post above both GFS and ECM are showing the milder air I was refering to around W/C 20th with the Atlantic winning through

Around the 20th is a good point to look at I feel if its milder weather your wanting

[Boro Snow]

To be Fair though its pointless even looking that far ahead because those charts simply wont happen

[Geordiesnow]

Have you forgotten the convective snow falls in January, as well as early December, and also two weeks ago?

I actually think this has been one of the better winters in terms of convective snow, although I'll admit some Armageddon scenarios have been shown on the models which always get downgraded.

There was no convection 2 weeks ago, the snowfall came from a trough, otherwise the day was just dull, cloudy and cold, probably around 5CM fell but it could and should of been more if the snow did not turn more wet as the morning went on, you only had to go up higher parts of Gateshead too see the snowcover being thicker.

I disagree this has been convective winter, I think on the whole its been dull, any convection only really lasted a day and no matter how many days we had with easterly winds, we had so few sunshine and snow shower days.

I just can't believe how this easterly looks like its going to be limited on a sunshine and shower set up, if you looked at past charts, they look similar, must be the mod winter syndrome of adding more "caps" to cloud tops to stop beefy showers forming.

On a serious note, it has made me learnt more now that set ups may not look what they appear to be but that said, lets see what happens, could be some surprises in store and fingers crossed Sunday will be brighter and showery. The GFS PPN charts have slightly upgraded PPN amounts.

Gavin: I'm sure it was you who said it would be around the 14th it will turn milder? Either way, don't see anything mild appearing on the outputs at the moment, not to say that won't change but for the foreseeable, it should be cold, especially at night.

Edited March 8, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[Cloud 10]

Overnight Sunday into Monday looks like a potent snow event with a trough aligned straight

towards us and -12 uppers.

[Summer Sun]

Gavin: I'm sure it was you who said it would be around the 14th it will turn milder?

I honestly can't remember saying that but I'm more than happy for someone to show me where I did

[Summer Sun]

16:00 text forecast for the NE

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Cold throughout with brisk northeasterly winds giving a marked chill. Often rather cloudy although with some bright or sunny spells. Occasional snow showers expected but these mostly light.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=regionalForecast&fcTime=1362873600

[Freezing-Point]

My opinion.....there have been several less cold events since 2010, which had HP closer which were supposed to be dry and have produced significant snowfall. Its been a long time since an air feed of this strength and cold has hit us.......I am expecting heavy snowfall, which may not be forecast until 8 hours before.

[peterf]

our southern friends are beginning to wet themselves in excitement lol.

[Cloud 10]

The 18z gets -14 uppers into our region on Monday morning,that is exceptional for March.

[Airedalejoe]

re to my post above both GFS and ECM are showing the milder air I was refering to around W/C 20th with the Atlantic winning through

Around the 20th is a good point to look at I feel if its milder weather your wanting

You've been saying this most of the winter and even the law of averages has failed you!! It will get milder eventually, it always does!

[Geordiesnow]

My opinion.....there have been several less cold events since 2010, which had HP closer which were supposed to be dry and have produced significant snowfall. Its been a long time since an air feed of this strength and cold has hit us.......I am expecting heavy snowfall, which may not be forecast until 8 hours before.

Yep and if you look at the charts on face value, you would say they are juicy charts yet what TWS is telling us from the more complex side of meteorology suggests convection may be limited as cloud tops won't extend high because of a dry layer high up in the atmosphere, similar to those summer days which starts clear blue skies, fair weather clouds bubbles up which leads to a mainly cloudy afternooon.

The GFS PPN charts do suggest there could be some convection around and thicknesses are quite low(although not very low) so it may work in our favor hopefully.

Whatever the doubt, I feel any PPN that does fall should easily be of snow from Sunday morning onwards.

[NickR]

Yep and if you look at the charts on face value, you would say they are juicy charts yet what TWS is telling us from the more complex side of meteorology suggests convection may be limited as cloud tops won't extend high because of a dry layer high up in the atmosphere, similar to those summer days which starts clear blue skies, fair weather clouds bubbles up which leads to a mainly cloudy afternooon.

The GFS PPN charts do suggest there could be some convection around and thicknesses are quite low(although not very low) so it may work in our favor hopefully.

Whatever the doubt, I feel any PPN that does fall should easily be of snow from Sunday morning onwards.

WHat's your take on the Southern event, GS? Think it'll do the usual adn slip further S into the channel/France? Or is a foot of snow imminent for the coast?

I'm hoping we might get a surprise trough and heavy convection and end up with loads again, like before when the attentionw as on the S, but we ended up with most!

[Boro Snow]

what nick f just posted on the mod

HIRLAM, not a model to be snubbed, keeps most the precip offshore of southern England on Monday, though keeps snow showers across E England from Northumberland down to Kent:

[Andy_]

If that FAX trough materialises then we could be in for a major dumping! -13-14 Uppers and plenty of trough precipitation will allow what falls to accumulate a lot more -going to be a lot dryer snow- than the marginal situations we've had this winter, which still in fact gave relatively good depths.

Hopefully we get a trough, but there's no guarantee we will. Showers will still be nice but i'd like to see how much snow can actually stick around in March. The waiting resumes...

[Geordiesnow]

WHat's your take on the Southern event, GS? Think it'll do the usual adn slip further S into the channel/France? Or is a foot of snow imminent for the coast?

I'm hoping we might get a surprise trough and heavy convection and end up with loads again, like before when the attentionw as on the S, but we ended up with most!

They are very hard to predict but I fancy with how cold the air is to the North, then areas on the northern flank of any weather front may see quite a dumping of snow but sometimes in these situations, PPN does not always play ball therefore not as much snow falls as predicted. Its one too watch for certain.

As for us, then that could happen and no doubt in the next day or so, BBC weather will be focusing on the Southern snow potential so as per ever its watching the radar and see whats there. The Fax charts do suggest a trough may hit the region but how these develop is hard to predict but its one to keep an eye on.

[Snowmaggedon]

Steve Murr's reply to Freezing-Point in the Mod Thread certainly opened my eyes wide. There's still time for a snow event maybe lol

[Cloud 10]

Got some light sleety snow here at the moment despite temperatures and dewpoints being above zero.