Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 18z ----->

[Boro Snow]

what a cold chart that is for mon

[Boro Snow]

well any snow that does fall in the next 24/48 hours i cant see laying, we must of had a hell of a lot of rain overnight because i havent seen my back garden that flooded for a while, by the way does anybody no what happened to that dutch bloke in the mod thread

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Covering of snow in Consett.

[Freezing-Point]

The wind direction is set to rapidly change fro ne to n on Monday night. This could create heavy snowfall...

[Cloud 10]

Covering of snow in Consett.

...........

[Snowmaggedon]

This from fergieweather in the MOD thread:

The degree of model disparity from the midnight runs is proving a headache now for Exeter, not least with GFS moving to the UKMO-GM solution re Sun-Mon developments to south. However, re the N Sea showers, there is at least some better continuity. These could well prove to be a significant event. Note how the upper trough digs-in across the North Sea before then disrupting... the net result, as evidenced by profiles at 12Z Monday for E coastal areas, is that when synthesized across SST's of 4C, tops go up to below -20C. Clearly, this could generate wintertime low-topped CB's and consequently some locally heavy snow showers. Thereafter, by 12Z Tuesday, a repeat exercise with profiles across SST's of 4C could generate CUSC with tops below -10C. These would be high-based, but local convergence - such as in the Dover Straits - could generate some snow showers in places. Anyway, Exeter re-visiting the warnings in discussions this morning, so anticipate some changes in various respects are likely.

[Summer Sun]

by the way does anybody no what happened to that dutch bloke in the mod thread

Aye he's gone apparently he's banned from most weather forums

After a bitter start to the week we finally see temperatures lift towards the end of the week with winds turning north westerly then swinging to the southwest

Edited March 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[NickR]

Aye he's gone apparently he's banned from most weather forums

I don't know why they gave him the time of day. Obviously a troll, but when I dared say so much in the MO thread, there was the usual chorus of complaints from the usual disingenuous bunch, accusing me of some form of racism.

[peterf]

getting colder as the morning goes on here.

[Geordiesnow]

Must say, I would keep an eye on for Tuesday like, could be a higher chance of seeing some snow showers as the models are now backing up the UKMO model of having the winds more Northerly(maybe even slighty east of north Northerly) which could have showers off the North Sea affecting eastern areas, one too keep an eye on for sure how it develops.

It looks like the convective potential will be a little more noticeable than the last event, I'm looking forward to this event just too see how low the temperatures will be this week, its certainly a exciting event for sure, hopefully we will see a little bit of snowfall too.

Looking at the North Sea, its a bit more clearer than I thought it would be behind this weather front, hopefully as the cold air starts travelling across the North Sea and thicknesses and instability gets lower, it will result in shower clouds forming.

[peterf]

the hi-res is showing plenty potential for us up here.

some nice big fat flakes here now.

[Snowmaggedon]

Weather warnings have been put in place for some of us today and all of us tomorrow and Monday....GAME ON

[Summer Sun]

Issued at:

1052 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid from:

1200 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid to:

0900 on Sun 10 Mar 2013

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Cold air coming south and cutting underneath a frontal zone will bring the risk of snow and ice. Temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels, and the ground has been warmed by the recent mild spell, though any sustained intensity will allow accumulations even to low levels. Winds on high ground could gust to more than 50 MPH increasing the risk of damage where rain freezes on power lines, especially over the north Pennines. Ice will be an additional hazard overnight as the sleet and snow clears south.

Issued at:

1127 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid from:

1600 on Sun 10 Mar 2013

Valid to:

0900 on Mon 11 Mar 2013

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Very cold air will have spread westwards across most parts of the UK by late Sunday, with showers falling mainly as sleet and snow. The heaviest snow showers are likely in the northeast, with some moderate falls of snow occurring during Sunday night where these showers become banded, whilst other places will see very little snowfall.

So some will see lots of snow whilst others will be hit and miss by the looks of it anyway snow is going to have an almighty struggle to lay here with all the rain we've had the ground is soaked and there is puddles all over the place Ice would be my main concern rather than laying snow at this stage

Edited March 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cloud 10]

Weather warnings have been put in place for some of us today and all of us tomorrow and Monday....GAME ON

Yep,up to 10 cm ,although i would say 15cm+ in the snow streamer "hotspots"

Met Office: North East England: severe weather warnings

[Snowmaggedon]

Yep,up to 10 cm ,although i would say 15cm+ in the snow streamer "hotspots"

Met Office: North East England: severe weather warnings

We could be in for a treat then if things go to plan, any accumulations over 2cm in low lying Middlesbrough, mild sector of the North, and I'll be a very happy chap

[Freezing-Point]

We could be in for a treat then if things go to plan, any accumulations over 2cm in low lying Middlesbrough, mild sector of the North, and I'll be a very happy chap

This is not always the case. I cant remember the year, 94/95 ish when I was in Middlesbrough which had 9" od snow whilst Newcastle had a light covering. I think this was from a Northerly....

[Boro Snow]

starting to see a few flakes in the rain

[Freezing-Point]

its stopped here and the wind has got up. colder air heading in..... radar watching tonight to see if showers develop

[Isolated Frost]

-14c upper air temperatures slipping into the region from Sunday night into Monday morning, plenty of cold locked up to the NE.

Can see some 2-5cm accu by Monday evening for much of the region and 5-15cm away from the coast / high ground, notable for Mid March.

[NickR]

-14c upper air temperatures slipping into the region from Sunday night into Monday morning, plenty of cold locked up to the NE.

Can see some 2-5cm accu by Monday evening for much of the region and 5-15cm away from the coast / high ground, notable for Mid March.

Do you think the flow is strong enough up here? Charts I've seen suggest it's too slack from the NYM northwards.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This is not always the case. I cant remember the year, 94/95 ish when I was in Middlesbrough which had 9" od snow whilst Newcastle had a light covering. I think this was from a Northerly....

Sounds rather like New Year's Day 1995- a trough brought a line of snow showers south through Tyne and Wear around mid-morning and gave a centimetre or two, and there were some light showers near the coast that evening, but most of the heavy snow showers were just off the coast, and by implication probably hit Middlesbrough.

[Boro Snow]

thomaz schafnaerker or summit like that lol just did the weather forecast on bbc news 24, plenty of snow for here 2nite sunday and monday

[Summer Sun]

thomaz schafnaerker or summit like that lol just did the weather forecast on bbc news 24, plenty of snow for here 2nite sunday and monday

There's been a discussion about that on TWO basically its showing snow could fall just about anywhere but as always some will miss out and some will get pasted, radar watching spring to mind.

11mm of rain today so far unless any snow is heavy it will just melt on impact here the ground is way to wet now 24mm of rain in 1 and a bit days

[Snowmaggedon]

thomaz schafnaerker or summit like that lol just did the weather forecast on bbc news 24, plenty of snow for here 2nite sunday and monday

can't see low lying areas benefiting tonight, but they are more than likely to from tomorrow evening onwards

[Boro Snow]

There's been a discussion about that on TWO basically its showing snow could fall just about anywhere but as always some will miss out and some will get pasted, radar watching spring to mind.

11mm of rain today so far unless any snow is heavy it will just melt on impact here the ground is way to wet now 24mm of rain in 1 and a bit days

Whats TWO