South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 11th February 2013 18:00hrs>

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I am actually hoping for a mild end to the month.

Off skiing on Sat 23rd, so the last thing I want is flight disruption.

Hoping all the cold stays in SE Europe, Bulgaria in particular! Greenland high does not look good for that!

[fluid dynamic]

hello

twas chilly on my motorbike this morning, been in the office for an hour, still feeling cold.

[tight isobar]

I don't think many are though, are they? After all, one of the coldest spells of 1947 was in late February... I think it's just a lot of us get to this point in the Winter and not withstanding another big snowfall, start looking forward to Spring.

theres some weight in what you are saying, although your point regarding not withstanding another big snowfall is confusing!.as there is more than ample time for that to occur.further also with output showing potential in latter time,and thats what it is POTENTIAL,i think some need remember although at present its not in the reliable time parametres, what is here in the uk?!.with our ever diverese, complex,and often boring climate.itd trends that i feel should be more taken onboard realy rather,than actual prognosis.....weather has never been án exact science.....i beleive winter may well have a sharp shock...

[fatyido]

Anyone have any early thoughts about the front moving in tomorrow from the west. ?

Ive already heard forecasters saying that the rain moving in will hit the cold air mass and produce a period of snow, before the milder air moves in and turns it back to rain. They just said rain turning to snow from the midlands northwards, then back to rain overnight ? What about us ? I would predict that we would see a spell of snow, however probably turning back to rain more readily than further north.

[Great Plum]

Morning all, quiet, cold and dry in Reigate...

Interestingly Reigate Hill is white!

[Stevieray1]

Snow risk is 90% today.... Where did that come from??!

[tight isobar]

Anyone have any early thoughts about the front moving in tomorrow from the west. ?

Ive already heard forecasters saying that the rain moving in will hit the cold air mass and produce a period of snow, before the milder air moves in and turns it back to rain. They just said rain turning to snow from the midlands northwards, then back to rain overnight ? What about us ? I would predict that we would see a spell of snow, however probably turning back to rain more readily than further north.

much quicker transition,ön thid(snow-rain) this incoming looks to strand roll remaining stagnent cool/cold out any snow should be short lived.then its double digits,through end of week....

[Paul Sherman]

much quicker transition,ön thid(snow-rain) this incoming looks to strand roll remaining stagnent cool/cold out any snow should be short lived.then its double digits,through end of week....

Thats easy for you to say

[tight isobar]

Snow risk is 90% today.... Where did that come from??!

rendes cloud cover,producing,snow grains.flurrys at best.

[Steve C]

theres some weight in what you are saying, although your point regarding not withstanding another big snowfall is confusing!.as there is more than ample time for that to occur.further also with output showing potential in latter time,and thats what it is POTENTIAL,i think some need remember although at present its not in the reliable time parametres, what is here in the uk?!.with our ever diverese, complex,and often boring climate.itd trends that i feel should be more taken onboard realy rather,than actual prognosis.....weather has never been án exact science.....i beleive winter may well have a sharp shock...

What I'm saying is in December, there's no point in looking forward to Spring as it's too far away. Getting towards the end of Winter, the opportunities for deep and long lasting cold inevitably become less. A matter of probabilities. Therefore it is reasonable to look forward to Spring now, especially with the notable increase in daylight now.

Having said that, possibly a candidate for the worst blizzard ever recorded in Southern England was in March 1891. It has been researched on this very site. I'm very aware of what may still happen.

http://forum.netweat...izzard-of-1891/

Edited February 12, 2013 by Steve C

[tight isobar]

Thats easy for you to say

famous last words eh...:-0

[Methuselah]

I've just seen a few snow grains!

[tight isobar]

What I'm saying is in December, there's no point in looking forward to Spring as it's too far away. Getting towards the end of Winter, the opportunities for deep and long lasting cold inevitably become less. A matter of probabilities. Therefore it is reasonable to look forward to Spring now, especially with the notable increase in daylight now.

Having said that, possibly a candidate for the worst blizzard ever recorded in Southern England was in March 1891. It has been researched on this very site. I'm very aware of what may still happen.

http://forum.netweat...izzard-of-1891/

again,agreed somewhat but as yourself suggested although rare late feb, can have a real sting in the tail....quote..as the days grow longer,the cold becomes stronger.Its just my view here but the gut,tells me strong end,to the season.

[Flaked Queen]

Snow risk is 90% today.... Where did that come from??!

I wondered the same ... Confused mine says 80% Edited February 12, 2013 by snowlady36

[A further flurry.]

And I have seen some snow grains too...

[chilly milly]

Morning all. A cold grey day here today with a temp of 1.6c.

I'm off out to get me a lemon, being pancake day an all.

Have a good one everybody.

[Methuselah]

I wonder if that wee snick of -10 uppers (GFS) could provide some deeper convection, to the east of the region, later today and this evening...

[Tamara]

I wonder if that wee snick of -10 uppers (GFS) could provide some deeper convection, to the east of the region, later today and this evening...

Too far south here and the wind doesn't have enough north easterly element in it, but for the estuary and north into your region then there is some possibility, maybe?

[Hotspur62]

Temp here 1.5 degrees in Petts Wood/Locksbottom borders,minimum last night only dropped to 0.4degrees so continuing thaw and think by late afternoon any remaining snow will be gone.Front passing through tomorrow will just give most of SE rain(maybe transient snow on places like Chilterns/North Downs) and then a few dry days with temps of 8-9 degrees so in any sun it should feel pleasent.If you want cold to return then there is POTENTIAL from latest ECM run with cold starting again from 19th FEB and getting progressively colder thereafter with increased snow risk for South East.However,that is a long way off and if by weekend other models join up with ECM's way of thinking then will be taking it seriously,at moment takeing it with pinch of salt as far too out to get excited!!Interesting though and be good to have another Snow meltdown on this forum again as its great fun!!

Happy Pancake day by the way and looking forward to a large portion of them this evening-Yummo!!

[tight isobar]

GFS 6z rolling and becoming increase,onboard with ECM..00z.

[Methuselah]

Too far south here and the wind doesn't have enough north easterly element in it, but for the estuary and north into your region then there is some possibility, maybe?

True, Tamara; I think I was posting from a bit of an IMBY perspective there: my 'snick' barely even reaches the Norfolk/Suffolk coast...

[Guest bjaykent]

Certainly some nice model runs now starting to take shape with some eastern promise. Very little sign of an active Atlantic, in fact it looks more blocked than the M25 at rush hour! with perhaps at last some signs of a decent Greenland High.

ECM leading the way with 192 chart showing the fabled easterly combined with cold uppers, UKMO doesn't look a million miles away from ECM at 144, GFS still playing with high pressure over the UK at 192 but I think we are used to the fact now that it will likely trend slowly west with subsequent runs and even as it stands it looks interested in an easterly further into FI. Too soon for any detailed scenarios to be pinned down but there is certainly a very strong trend towards colder than average as is highlighted in the BBC monthly outlook at the moment.

From an imby point of view I would like to see an easterly with some cold uppers, being at nearly sea level has meant that I have seen very little snow this year as marginality has always been a key factor that together with the fact that when we have had a easterly flow its always been too slack.

All looks promising, winter's not over yet IMO.

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

Edited February 12, 2013 by bjaykent

[Guest bjaykent]

I wonder if that wee snick of -10 uppers (GFS) could provide some deeper convection, to the east of the region, later today and this evening...

Blink and you'll miss it LOL

[alexisj9]

roughly when do we get those -10 uppers?

lol thanks bjk, good luck tonight in east anglia.

Edited February 12, 2013 by alexisj9

[Guest bjaykent]

roughly when do we get those -10 uppers?

don't think looking at GFS6z that they get any further than the map I just posted, before they push away again towards the continent.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/850-hpa/3h.htm

Edited February 12, 2013 by bjaykent