South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 14:00hrs>

[2810lollypop]

I pray your mother makes a full recovery

Thank you for your kind words Yamkin & snowlady xx

[2810lollypop]

wishing your mum a speedy recovery

Thank u x

[Tom Montalbano]

I pray your mother makes a full recovery

I'd like to echo that too lollypop.

Very best wishes,

Tom.

[Vince Coombes]

Same here lollypop for a speedy recovery.and hope to see JP back here very soon. Along with himself and a few others who post in here who i much respect for

[Iceni]

I know this is sacrilege but I honestly don't want another snow event if it's of the kind we've had this winter. Sort of slushy and grey day after day and the temperature's just above freezing. It's dismal!

I want a lovely band of frontal snow which clears overnight with sparkling frosty sunny day to enjoy. This sleety stuff, fog and cloud does nothing for me.

PS John… sorry about your loss. Our family is dealing with the deaths of my dear Uncle and my cousin within a couple of weeks of each other. It's just so sad. You think people will go on forever, but they don't.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Iceni

[Steve C]

I know this is sacrilege but I honestly don't want another snow event if it's of the kind we've had this winter. Sort of slushy and grey day after day and the temperature's just above freezing. It's dismal!

I want a lovely band of frontal snow which clears overnight with sparkling frosty sunny day to enjoy. This sleety stuff, fog and cloud does nothing for me.

No Sacrilege.

Whatever weather type you like, is your prerogative. In fact one of the things that annoys me most about this site (and mostly this occurs on the Model Thread) is when people gang up on others for their particular weather preferences - could you imagine that sort of discussion happening in a public place, away from this forum? People would be noticed and laughed at, frankly.

I personally like snow events to provide long lasting cover and photo opportunities, snowy walks etc. I really don’t like snow to rain events, or snow which rapidly thaws after falling. To me these events are merely nuisance value, but, like I said, if others like this type of weather then it’s their choice.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

Morning everybodypeeps!

Nice and sharp, clear and bright out there today, I think we've got a few days like this

[Coast]

GFS (yes, that GFS!) free-atmosphere meteogram for London now clearly showing the drop in temps and the thickness on the 500-1000 ht (light blue line) from around Midnight on the 21st into the 22nd drops way down to 515dm:

What does that old waffle mean then?

I know some have given up on GFS this Winter, but if we could, we'd take those indications wouldn't we?

- 24 hours of snowing for some maybe........

[Methuselah]

Bring it on, Robin...Nice day coming today, though...

[Jimmyh]

Those are breathtaking charts coast. Hope it comes off. Sure this winter has a major sting left in its long long tail

[Coast]

Those are breathtaking charts coast. Hope it comes off. Sure this winter has a major sting left in its long long tail

Well of course they will change around and the chances will come and go, but somewhere, someone has put info in and got data out that it might happen, so why not? It's all about chaos - and I don't mean the MOD thread! :lol:

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

So GFS improving and the Euros backing off slightly, seems to be the message from the models this morning but watching the synoptics evolve on this forecast cold spell, is fascinating.

But as mentioned above, any charts after t120/t144 should be viewed with caution and only serve to offer general guidance on the forthcoming pattern and more specific detail left to early next week.

Would love to get a few days snowfall and end winter on a high note though, if only to make further progress with Snow Depth Cup competition!

Pretty long shift today, so wont be able to be involved too much until later on this evening, the joys of Irish floodlit, all-weather racing!

WIill be popping in at work, from time to time. Hope you all have a lovely day.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 15, 2013 by TomSE20

[Snowangel-MK]

How the Met Office create their forecasts...

Edited February 15, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[snowedout]

Hello all

Thankyou for your concern

I promise I will let you know what has happened in a few days. It is a very sad time for me and need some time to come to grips with my loss

I do appreciate your kindness

Talk soon

John. X

Although i have been a member for several years this is the first time I have ever written anything - I just wanted to wish you strength and courage and comfort, John. I read your posts, always knowing that what you say will be sound. So thank you and will look forward to future posts when you are ready. And thanks everyone for all your knowledge and enthusiasm and cheerfulness. Sue xx

[Stevieray1]

Morning everyone,

I just wanted to say how sorry I am to hear some of you are going through hard times. I've not been here long but you are some of the friendliest welcoming people I've 'met' and I sincerely wish you all the best. X

[Methuselah]

Although i have been a member for several years this is the first time I have ever written anything - I just wanted to wish you strength and courage and comfort, John. I read your posts, always knowing that what you say will be sound. So thank you and will look forward to future posts when you are ready. And thanks everyone for all your knowledge and enthusiasm and cheerfulness. Sue xx

Well let's hope it's not the last, Sue...But, what a lovely day today is...

[Dexter29]

Can't get my head around the MOD thread this morning.

ECM yesterday along with UKMO was the best model ever as it showed cold air heading our way with potential snow!

GFS was to be ignored as it showed nothing of the sort.

Now the GFS shows an easterly flow and ECM has a downgrade , GFS is an amazing model!

If there ever was proof of following your snowy preference in models this is it!

[alexisj9]

Cloudy morning, now a lovely blue cloudless sky. Going to be another beautiful day. I'm sorry to hear about your loss JP.

[Ben_Cambs]

Morning all, a nice start to the day here with a few sunny breaks and a breeze. Currently 6.4C.

I think we can safely say it's going to turn colder next week, for example ECM 0z ensemble mean at T+120 as us in a ENE'ly flow:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1201.gif

However of course big differences between the models on how cold it will be, snow risk etc, that will vary from run to run.

Really sorry to hear about your loss JP. Hope you are ok. Also like to wish Lollypop's mother a speedy recovery aswell.

Kind regards,

Ben.

[snowedout]

Well let's hope it's not the last, Sue...But, what a lovely day today is...

It feels like lovely spring is coming...............oh, but is there snow in the offing? Too early to say, I know - but it would be good................

[Guest bjaykent]

Morning all,

So GFS improving and the Euros backing off slightly, seems to be the message from the models this morning but watching the synoptics evolve on this forecast cold spell, is fascinating.

But as mentioned above, any charts after t120/t144 should be viewed with caution and only serve to offer general guidance on the forthcoming pattern and more specific detail left to early next week.

Would love to get a few days snowfall and end winter on a high note though, if only to make further progress with Snow Depth Cup competition!

Pretty long shift today, so wont be able to be involved too much until later on this evening, the joys of Irish floodlit, all-weather racing!

WIill be popping in at work, from time to time. Hope you all have a lovely day.

Regards,

Tom.

Nice to see cross model agreement at 144 but it doesn't bring me much confidence when GFS is showing as the coldest and snowiest evolution of the three. As far as I am concerned it is still catching up and although UKMO/ECM are still cold runs they are not quite as convincing as they were a couple of days ago and I expect GFS to follow in time.

For the second day running yesterday the Meto slightly distanced itself from the UKMO model as it was more progressive than the ECM in bringing in the easterly and snow showers. I can understand their caution as they are trying to forecast in the main for the UK which is difficult at the best of times and of course The ECM which always appears to be the best model at seven days won't look terribly wrong if it gets the majority of the European weather right apart from the UK. This is why in my view ECM is always slightly better regarded than UKMO as it is prepared to take the lead by showing a little more risk.

Was interested to See in model thread GP (Glacier Point) Is still very bullish in backing the ECM evolution this morning and considered the UKMO run an unlikely scenario.

So it all still looks good for cold next week but I won't be pinning my hopes on what GFS is currently showing.

On a separate note my condolences go out to John and my hopes for a speedy recovery go to Lollpop's mum, heartwarming to see we can be one big close family when we need to on here.

Edited February 15, 2013 by bjaykent

[Jan_Bromley]

John P

Sending you love and my best wishes

Jan x

[Tom Montalbano]

John P

Sending you love and my best wishes

Jan x

Can I add my sentiments to yours Jan, as a fellow Bromleyite.

Very best wishes,

Tom.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Lots of love for John pike on here as it should be x x

Bright day here still would love a proper snow event before spring but will just have to wait and see!

Have good day and weekend everyone x x

[Coast]

It feels like lovely spring is coming...............oh, but is there snow in the offing? Too early to say, I know - but it would be good................

I'm working from home today and with the window open I can hear all the birds singing like a spring day. Not quite as sunny as expected but a good weekend coming up and still a good chance of something exciting at the end of next week maybe....