South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 14:00hrs>

[HammerJack]

My thoughts are with those that are having a sad time, and if i may try to bring some happier news, my wife is in labour so hopefully in the next few hours i will become a father for the 2nd time

Just glad the weather has settled, almost like baby was waiting for it..........................

Bloody hell mate. You must be really dedicated to this forum. If I done that when my wife was I labour, I don't think I would be typing this now! All the best to you and your family mate, and most importantly enjoy your new bundle of joy. Take care.

[tight isobar]

Good evening.well gfs,finaly gets,almost complete agree only for other output to begin there slight backward trend!..in my view(and one to which by now you may know) is exactly what i expected. Emphasis MUST in this case,be applied to again trends.However some will suggest,the old halfway house scenario with a somewhere inbetween eventual resolve,not for myself,there already is ample blocks of sort almost asure,and with even án easterly of sorts assured.but more importantly we have been teased tremendouly with wonderous possibilities all season.and i feel now is the time for establishment. I,d have fair favour with anyone on this.....the worst/best of winter is awaiting in the shadows..and come sunday i think reliable will be in grasp....a ramp i know but just remember....

[Southender]

Get the cold in and I bet there will be a few troughs popping up in the flow at short range. We are nicely placed here in SE/EA. Lets see if the colder air arrives first though.

[Steve C]

Evening all

As it was a pretty pleasant day, I thought I’d get out and about in it, having a day off work. It was noticeable how much higher in the sky the Sun is now.

Here are a few photos I took today. Enjoy your weekends!

[Snowangel-MK]

Wow poor Russians,amazing footage of that meteorite .scary though.

Never mind the beast from the east this beast was 10 tonnes, have a listen if you want to know what a meteorite exploding at 30,000m sounds like.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqL36xQu2A4&feature=share

[Snowangel-MK]

We might have missed the Meteor (or rather it missed us) but there is always a chance of seeing Asteroid DA14 tonight ...It is due to fly past Earth in a few hours. It's 50 metres across and will pass just 17,100 miles above our heads. Although there is no danger of a collision, it's still passing much closer than any other known asteroid and closer than many man made satellites.

NASA will be doing a live stream of the asteroid as it passes us by, so don't despair if it won't be visible from your area. The stream will begin at 19:00 GMT/14:00 EST/11:00 PST. You'll be able to watch it here:http://bit.ly/WMWitd

And there is this to look forward to next year ....

http://www.independe...ry-8431443.html

Have a lovely weekend everyone - I hope things improve for those of you going through sad/bad times and best wishes for the birth of your baby Leemondo.... keep us posted

[Eskimo]

Update.

There's now cross model agreement on a very cold air mass impacting the UK from the near continent. A channel low, which is what we call a low pressure system that drifts through the English channel, will draw in cold air from the East. This has been modeled consistently by ECM for a few days and now the other models are starting to pick up on this idea. Snow amounts could be huge for the South depending on how much precipitation is associated with this low and how far North it impacts the UK. If the low comes too far North then we are under the temporary influence of warmer westerly winds, if the low is too far south, then we just remain very cold and dry.

The low has to pass somewhere in the middle so we get the precipitation and the continental feed from the East, as you can tell it's very finely balanced, but then that tends to be the weather in a nutshell. It's what I like to call the 'Goldilocks Scenario' and the map tagged with this status shows what happens with each scenario.

[abruzzi spur]

Update.

There's now cross model agreement on a very cold air mass impacting the UK from the near continent. A channel low, which is what we call a low pressure system that drifts through the English channel, will draw in cold air from the East. This has been modeled consistently by ECM for a few days and now the other models are starting to pick up on this idea. Snow amounts could be huge for the South depending on how much precipitation is associated with this low and how far North it impacts the UK. If the low comes too far North then we are under the temporary influence of warmer westerly winds, if the low is too far south, then we just remain very cold and dry.

The low has to pass somewhere in the middle so we get the precipitation and the continental feed from the East, as you can tell it's very finely balanced, but then that tends to be the weather in a nutshell. It's what I like to call the 'Goldilocks Scenario' and the map tagged with this status shows what happens with each scenario.

thanks PS, if this comes to pass it could be very interesting indeed! As you say, finely balanced at the moment but something to watch for sure.

AS

[yamkin]

We might have missed the Meteor (or rather it missed us) but there is always a chance of seeing Asteroid DA14 tonight ...It is due to fly past Earth in a few hours. It's 50 metres across and will pass just 17,100 miles above our heads. Although there is no danger of a collision, it's still passing much closer than any other known asteroid and closer than many man made satellites.

NASA will be doing a live stream of the asteroid as it passes us by, so don't despair if it won't be visible from your area. The stream will begin at 19:00 GMT/14:00 EST/11:00 PST. You'll be able to watch it here:http://bit.ly/WMWitd

And there is this to look forward to next year ....

http://www.independe...ry-8431443.html

Have a lovely weekend everyone - I hope things improve for those of you going through sad/bad times and best wishes for the birth of your baby Leemondo.... keep us posted

The passing of this asteroid may cause an increase of earthquakes and volcano activity due to the gravitation pull. There's another on it's way later this year.

[Kentspur]

Question- I went sea fishing at Brighton marina today caught my best ever haul of plaice!:-)) however I got sunburnt on my cheeks and nose- I hear rumours all the the about the sun reflecting off the water magnifying rays and I know the days are getting longer but it's still only February and I'm olive skinned?!!

The passing of this asteroid may cause an increase of earthquakes and volcano activity due to the gravitation pull. There's another on it's way later this year.

Perhaps the end of the world was delayed until this year;-)))

[abruzzi spur]

Sad to hear of our friends on this site for whom times are tough at the moment. Illness and death are pretty ruthless masters. Having come through the nightmare of our then 6 year old being diagnosed with a brain tumour 2 days after his birthday, and seeing him now 4 years on pretty much recovered, combined with my mother having a 20 year difficult decline to her death last year, I feel I should have something meaningful to say. Truth is I don't, but I am now filled with the sense that in despair there might be hope and in death there could be, eventually for those left behind, the hint of peace.

Reading that back it's full of doubt, it's tentative, but for me that's ok.....

AS

[john pike]

hi all

just a quick ramp chart to cheer me up

[john pike]

also tuesdays fax chart

cold easterly flow

breaking front moving across the south east

whoever saw the snow report for tuesday were right

not necessarily heavy but snow none the less

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If some of these charts came of that are showing tonight..

Most of the South east would go into break down with the amount of snow..

THATS IF!! AND A BIG IF!!

The charts do verify and we don't get a slack Easterly..

[abruzzi spur]

hi all

just a quick ramp chart to cheer me up

Thanks JP for even thnking of dropping in here, it's much appreciated, keep doing some of the stuff that seems less important, in tough times it can help to keep you going.

[tight isobar]

Gfs +144...well what can i say...fantastic...after the ludicrous,perhaps the lead???

[john pike]

Thanks JP for even thnking of dropping in here, it's much appreciated, keep doing some of the stuff that seems less important, in tough times it can help to keep you going.

hi mate

trying to keep occupied is as you say really important

i do appreciate all the very kind comments made by all

this is not just a weather thread

its a friendly community which is really helpful to me at the moment

thankyou all

wednesday fax

very cold east north east wind

528 dam air touching us

low pressure to our east potentially driving showers in land

nice

[Guest bjaykent]

also tuesdays fax chart

cold easterly flow

breaking front moving across the south east

whoever saw the snow report for tuesday were right

not necessarily heavy but snow none the less

Nice to see you in John, some lovely charts tonight, get the cold in on Tuesday and wait for the showers to break out.

[Guest bjaykent]

Gfs +144...well what can i say...fantastic...after the ludicrous,perhaps the lead???

That is certainly a cold pool of air over the UK 108 hrs to 180 hrs and that's as far as it has updated so far, wonder what FI it wiill serve up tonight. Wish these charts were the ECM instead of GFS! Edited February 15, 2013 by bjaykent

[tight isobar]

Left viewing now out +168...you realy cannot ask for more. When wobbling atrocious when ön form stupendious...ad again in terms of trending gfs has been way off, but has a canny knack of taking hold in more reliable then leading, before sadly going nuts again. We are almost certain on here for some dramatics in near, and closeing future..winter bitter slant, goodbye...perhaps prolonged too.

[Hammer]

The passing of this asteroid may cause an increase of earthquakes and volcano activity due to the gravitation pull. There's another on it's way later this year.

Two 'Great Comets' in 2013, one of them 'Comet of the Century'. One in March and one in December.

[alexdan]

Peter Cockcroft just mentioned fine pellet snow for next week

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Loving the gfs, for once all the ramping on the mod is justified, id do anything for those charts to verify (almost!)

[john pike]

pub run alert

Edited February 15, 2013 by john pike

[tight isobar]

Along with any probable incurring lp,s the convection probables are looking fantastic.also prolongment once establishment, are setting good.here comes REAL winter i suggest.:-).