scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO up to day six would be largely dry and frosty but at the end the heights are transferring northwest and the trough is dropping down into Scandinavia, so longer term far better than the GFS.

[Buriedundersnow]

could someone tell me when i am looking at the ncep archives on meteociel and i choose the mode 15 jours suivant it shows 15 days but is that the actual weather that happened for they 15 days or is it just showing me an old model run as it asks for a 00z or 12z starting point

[JoeShmoe]

GFS 12Z is a very good run for eastern Scotland into the central belt - E or ESE winds ( big difference is anticyclonic rather than cyclonic driven so more likely to be cold at the surface) with uppers heading towards -10C at times.

I only see a 18-24 hour period of cold uppers with a SE wind, not good for a lot of coasties i suspect?

And UKMO having none of it, anticylonic for Scotland

Edited February 15, 2013 by JoeShmoe

[LomondSnowstorm]

I only see a 18-24 hour period of cold uppers with a SE wind, not good for a lot of coasties i suspect?

And UKMO having none of it, anticylonic for Scotland

I don't think the GFS would be too bad, the last time the issue was near constant cloud cover but with quite a long fetch I think it'd be more like this:

than this:

Neither entirely analogous though since neither had total coverage of -8C uppers for more than 24 hours and both had us more or less under a trough rather than with relatively high pressure. The slacker flow would reduce mixing too so modification wouldn't get as far inland.

Anyway, UKMO is quite different and I think more plausible - far slower but you can see where it's going next with the undercut coming in and the purples heading in from the northeast:

As long as it isn't a stratocumulus dominated spell I'll be happy.

[Guest]

The dipper looks a bit bigger than earlier; BMW get that Morphy out of the box and ready for action soon

[Guest]

As long as it isn't a stratocumulus dominated spell I'll be happy.

Spot on LS, even some good hard frosts would be a nice start and we can take it from there. Cloudy and 3ºC just isn't going to cut the mustard

[LomondSnowstorm]

Spot on LS, even some good hard frosts would be a nice start and we can take it from there. Cloudy and 3ºC just isn't going to cut the mustard

ECM has a 'cloudy and 3C' look about it at points I must admit, just depends on the upper cold pool I feel - normal -7/-8C rules apply to this one I feel, the others were a bit more demanding due to the frontal nature along with the wind speed and slightly higher SSTs.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Why the GFS is so good - WBFL (MO standard snow predictor and linked quite heavily to the 950hpas) drop sub 100m i.e. snaw, from Tuesday evening:

Still sub zero at the end of low resolution (Saturday)

925s stay sub zero through to the following Thursday, with a southerly flow meaning the snow level probably doesn't rise until then either:

Anyway, hypothetical and all, but it's an option, and we could still do a little better than what the GFS shows for uppers too realistically.

[Norrance]

Cracking morning here today with a bit more cloud pm leading to a couple of showers around t time. 3.5C currently and clear. Max today was 8.1C with a thaw of most of lying snow. Still some patches in shade in the back garden.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ooft aye.

[Hairy Celt]

Ooft aye.

and with uppers at about -5C in the north of Scotland, what would this yield apart from cold grey days?

[LomondSnowstorm]

and with uppers at about -5C in the north of Scotland, what would this yield apart from cold grey days?

Occasional cold sunny days?

It's a bit of an IMBYist run really, but sadly I can't control the output. I really would prefer some kind of Arctic airmass and a GH but I guess we just have to make do with what's shown.

[Hairy Celt]

Nearly binned this one when about to format the memory card...

Have at ye, varmint compressing software!

Erm, the zipped version is worth 3/10, the compressed version thumbnailed is worth 1/10.

CMD's idea of a Kilted Kalendar with proceeds to charity sounds good. Might need another thread somewhere?

Edited February 15, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[A Winter's Tale]

Some pleasant Spring-like sunshine earlier today. It could be very different in less than a week's time with a return to winter weather thanks to an area of high pressure situated over Scandinavia. At this stage we can only speculate on whether it will snow, what sort of overnight lows we'll see and whether we'll see heights retrogress towards Greenland. It would be nice to relive the sort of scenes here on Wednesday http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1281-snowfall-13th-february-2013/. 8cm of the white stuff making it the best snowfall here since Nov/Dec 2010 and also the 15th snowfall of the season at Glasgow airport, 3rd highest since 1999/2000.

[Hairy Celt]

Occasional cold sunny days?

It's a bit of an IMBYist run really, but sadly I can't control the output. I really would prefer some kind of Arctic airmass and a GH but I guess we just have to make do with what's shown.

Ok, apologies offered.

Off to sunnier climes in the morn - north Sutherland again. Hoping for some non-disruptive weather later next week for my filial visit just south of the border, more SS territory than typical 'Englandshire'.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, apologies offered.

Off to sunnier climes in the morn - north Sutherland again. Hoping for some non-disruptive weather later next week for my filial visit just south of the border, more SS territory than typical 'Englandshire'.

I was actually looking at taking the train up to Corrour for the day for a bit of hillwalking next Friday (study week next week), but the main weather disruption would probably be at the Waverley end rather than at the Rannoch end:

Hope you can get down to the other side of the Borders, this run looks a bit hairy but we are looking at 'butterfly effect' synoptics here where the twitch of a shortwave in one direction can cause a monumental blizzard while in the other can leave us with nothing.

Edited February 15, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

Hope you can get down to the other side of the Borders, this run looks a bit hairy but we are looking at 'butterfly effect' synoptics here where the twitch of a shortwave in one direction can cause a monumental blizzard while in the other can leave us with nothing.

At the moment the butterfly is flapping roughly in the right direction...how long that lasts is anyone's guess but so far so good. Unless you live up north like HC, in which case it's a pile of mince at the moment.

[Hairy Celt]

At the moment the butterfly is flapping roughly in the right direction...how long that lasts is anyone's guess but so far so good. Unless you live up north like HC, in which case it's a pile of mince at the moment.

That about sums it up. Mince - horse-mince at that.

[Cheggers]

Happy Birthday Catch, got you a present. It's a Blackberry on Orange. Have a great day.

[Guest]

That about sums it up. Mince - horse-mince at that.

At least it's leaner than beef? We'll try and magic up a retrogression to Greenland with a screaming northerly; if that fails then I'm not sure what else to suggest?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Happy Birthday Catch, got you a present. It's a Blackberry on Orange. Have a great day.

I feel bad now - all I got him was an iPhone on O2:

[Guest]

Happy Birthday Catch, got you a present. It's a Blackberry on Orange. Have a great day.

Awww you shouldn't have, thank you!

I have rushed out at the last minute to get you something but the Apple shop was shut, I could only get this on e-bay. It's an early prototype of an i-pod, I think it was the c-pod or maybe the d-pod:

[Cheggers]

Awww you shouldn't have, thank you!

I have rushed out at the last minute to get you something but the Apple shop was shut, I could only get this on e-bay. It's an early prototype of an i-pod, I think it was the c-pod or maybe the d-pod:

Cheers catch, been a long time since I saw one of them, and where I used to live they were more common than the current iPod is now.

[blitzen]

Morning! Is it? Just in, have been out on the ran-dan for once! Birthday girl here too! God how many of us is there around this time? Tried to decipher the MT comments but one too many I'm afraid. Will get my head round it tomorrow.

Happy birthday guys!

[Guest]

Morning! Is it? Just in, have been out on the ran-dan for once! Birthday girl here too! God how many of us is there around this time? Tried to decipher the MT comments but one too many I'm afraid. Will get my head round it tomorrow.

Happy birthday guys!

Happy Birthday to you too, hope your head isn't too sore tomorrow