South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[Steve C]

Afternoon all from glorious Henley On Thames!

The sun is really beaming down and all that's missing is a Pimms by the Thames. Happy days

Which car did you take?

[Kent Snow]

A lovely sunny day after the fog burnt off. 5C.

[Steve C]

From something I picked up on the model thread last night.

Here is an archive chart from late January 1947. If you step forward, through the month of February, you can see a persistant Greenland high, with very frequent easterly winds and undercutting low pressures. A snow lovers paradise! I can but dream...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=29&month=1&year=1947&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

[chilly milly]

Love your pics Coast, makes me wish I was there.

And also liking your pics John, very pretty. Hope you are doing okay buddy. I hope a bit of sunshine is helping to lift the spirits a little.

Had a lovely morning out with the family and ended up buying a new bed. Now settled in lounge with cat and dog vying for the sunshine spot.

I don't mind another chilly spell before the month is out. But come March I am going to be wanting my spring. Spring starts in March and for once I would like the seasons to play ball.

[Coast]

Which car did you take?

The estate, which I'm regretting in this sun now!

[Paul Sherman]

Am about to give the garden its first haircut of the year, surprisingly dry out there and primed for a cut, makes the snow nicer if any falls this weekend, even the dusting should look nice

Still sticking with what I forecast yesterday and that of depressing stratocumulus greay skies with snow grains and maybe a little more in the way of light snow on Sat/Sun, and then High Pressure becoming dominant as we move towards March with some southerly winds making it feel springlike.

Enjoy today as once that wind goes to the east expect grey and depressing for the end of the week! Boooooo

[Ben_Cambs]

Afternoon all,

A wonderful day here with clear blue sky, currently 7.2C, after a sharp frost this morning with a minimum of -4.8C. Certainly noticing daffodils, tulips and crocuses beginning to shoot up through the ground. Sadly the last day of this nice spell of weather with a much cloudier continental flow taking hold by tomorrow.

A cold few days to come from tomorrow onwards, with temperatures struggling, maximums of 2-3C for many and much cloudier of late so I don't think there will be much difference between the daytime maximums and night minima. Certainly the risk of some light snow come the weekend though nothing too substiantial from the models (at the moment), Kent still best placed to see snow this weekend.

Does seem to be a trend from the models for HP to build at the start of next week, for example ECM ensemble mean at T+168 shows this quite well:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif

NAEFS at T+168 has a large height anomaly to the north of the UK:

http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-168.png?12

So maybe a return of the conditions we are currently experiencing next week.

Edited February 19, 2013 by Ben_Cambs

[Ben_Cambs]

Further to my previous post:

London GFS 06z ensembles, the lack of precipitation spikes along the bottom for the next 10 days or so signalling a period of welcomed dry weather:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[john pike]

ukmo uppers 21st

22nd

shows dry at present

very cold through thursday onwards

hi chilly getting there slowly

thankyou

Edited February 19, 2013 by john pike

[Pixel]

If we don't get any 'dynamic snow' (phrase from the mad thread) very soon I'll have the sun charged with Murder

[london-snow]

Further to my previous post:

London GFS 06z ensembles, the lack of precipitation spikes along the bottom for the next 10 days or so signalling a period of welcomed dry weather:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Ben ensembles are pants if you're looking for shower activity or streamers to come from the e/ne.

They are only half decent at predicting snowfall that normally comes from a breakdown type situation or where frontal systems bump into the cold air in place.

Stick to the radar come thursday onwards I'd suggest.

[Jason T]

Summer 2013 Forecast

posted December 26, 2012 / No Comments

With 2013 just around the corner and many asking the question “Will summer 2013 be a warm one†we have decided to look at the long range forecasting models to see what they show.

Of course its difficult enough to predict the weather outside of 7 days, so 6-7 months out is pure guess work, but with the long range models (CFS) it gives us a brief insight with long range weather patterns.

The latest models suggest June will be a rather wet month with heavy showers and rather mild temperatures, continuing throughout the month.

July and August looks set to be a scorcher with temperatures reaching the high twenties quite widely, with highs of 30-32c across the South East of the UK.

We will continue to post summer 2013 updates throughout the coming year.

Stay up to date by liking our facebook page.

http://www.facebook.com/ukweatherforecast

Crikey here we go. Thats another wash out summer on the way then, All we need now is March and April to be well above average temps and that will really confirm it.

Got to admit very much love us all to have long hot Summer this year, Infact even if it was mainlyJuly and August that could be warm and sunny that would be a real bonus.

Keep the top post's going JP.

[Jason T]

Well lows to the west, High on top of us,and plenty of snow in Germany,Holland etc. France Dry as well only the Border between Italy and France showing ppn (Mountains) i guess. Mind you it will be bitter and quite Windy come Friday.

[throwoff]

Just had a real good look at the 06Z.

Snow risk on the whole seems lower for the coming days for us in Kent however the indications are stronger (some at 100%!) for the time it will be falling!

[Ben_Cambs]

Ben ensembles are pants if you're looking for shower activity or streamers to come from the e/ne.

They are only half decent at predicting snowfall that normally comes from a breakdown type situation or where frontal systems bump into the cold air in place.

Stick to the radar come thursday onwards I'd suggest.

Oh yes I agree with that, my point was linked with my previous post that we're entering a dry period of weather, with HP likely to build at the start of next week following the E/NE'ly in the second half of this week which like you say could possibly be conducive for a streamer set-up. Sorry for any confusion.

[Mike Storm]

Am about to give the garden its first haircut of the year, surprisingly dry out there and primed for a cut, makes the snow nicer if any falls this weekend, even the dusting should look nice

Still sticking with what I forecast yesterday and that of depressing stratocumulus greay skies with snow grains and maybe a little more in the way of light snow on Sat/Sun, and then High Pressure becoming dominant as we move towards March with some southerly winds making it feel springlike.

Enjoy today as once that wind goes to the east expect grey and depressing for the end of the week! Boooooo

My Grass is crying out to be cut... but can i be bothered.... its at least 6 inches long... humm

[Snowangel-MK]

I've been out and about enjoying the lovely sunshine as well this morning...nice to see some signs of spring...

.....I hope they are not buried under a foot of snow by the weekend

[Coast]

The mod thread is people from all over the place, stick in here, listen to JP and Coast and we can get a better picture as the runs come out today.

Well JP at least!

GFS says a light dusting through the weekend:

[john pike]

hi coast

at least its a start

also noticed nae

instability showing showers running down the north sea heading south west on thursday pm

the next frame would have been helpful

more later

[throwoff]

I do love JP's posts on here, informative with a touch of ramping Just what I like to see!

Hope you are feeling more positive mate, did not post the other day when everyone was passing on their good will to you.

[crazy_diamond]

Just spent a wonderful couple of hours with my youngest grandson (1 year old next week). It was warm enough in Basildon to take him for a walk to the local park, muck about on the swings, and wave to passing traffic. It's been a warm, balmy afternoon, and now both the baby and I need a nap!!!!

CD

[chilly milly]

I have same problem as Mike S. Grass needs cutting but I can't be bothered. Have guilty conscious now I know Paul S has done his.

[snowedout]

Been in garden weeding and cutting and pottering, sun on back, birds chirruping a very definite spring, mating-type song, a bee buzzing in the winter honeysuckle, skies blue, all's well with the world - hard to believe temps will be sinking to zero and below in a day or two. Hope that bee will be okay!

[jimbo36]

shouldn't be cutting grass before a frost :-)

[LJS22]

Been in garden weeding and cutting and pottering, sun on back, birds chirruping a very definite spring, mating-type song, a bee buzzing in the winter honeysuckle, skies blue, all's well with the world - hard to believe temps will be sinking to zero and below in a day or two. Hope that bee will be okay!

I know. It's going to be heartbreaking that in 48 hours time from now it be freezing cold again