South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[Sussex Jules]

Post by Ian F on MAD thread looks like Met O are looking at possibility of Kent slapper for weekend. I like them

[john pike]

this just posted by ian f on mod thread

Just a final note to say UKMO will currently cater for 1-3cm accumulations Saturday from more pronounced Thames Estuary convergence zone running SW through central Kent to Sussex. Good agreement in UK4 with UKMO-GM and EC for this. Similar story Sunday albeit with less forcing aloft so less pronounced accumulations in same general area; also eastern areas especially Sat from the first, more pronounced shortwave (currently near Greenland) that'll run around to come SW by Sat... so e.g. Lincs and E Yorks/Humber area prone to 2-3cm too. Cheers.

dare i say the streamer word here

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=149&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

nice short term ensembles

[Guest bjaykent]

this just posted by ian f on mod thread

Just a final note to say UKMO will currently cater for 1-3cm accumulations Saturday from more pronounced Thames Estuary convergence zone running SW through central Kent to Sussex. Good agreement in UK4 with UKMO-GM and EC for this. Similar story Sunday albeit with less forcing aloft so less pronounced accumulations in same general area; also eastern areas especially Sat from the first, more pronounced shortwave (currently near Greenland) that'll run around to come SW by Sat... so e.g. Lincs and E Yorks/Humber area prone to 2-3cm too. Cheers.

dare i say the streamer word here

You can say it but Ian F likes Thames Convergence Zone by the look of things

Thames Streamer and Kent Slapper sound sooo much better.

Edited February 19, 2013 by bjaykent

[Sussex Jules]

Does sound a bit classier than slappers and clippers

[john pike]

heres a ramp chart

Does sound a bit classier than slappers and clippers

could call it slippers

[throwoff]

Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls.

METO have a snow symbol for Kent on Friday

[Sussex Jules]

If I was being picky John I would say can we have that a tad further south

[blackprince]

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=0&ext=1

nice short term ensembles

Talking of short things just noticed my sleep time is down to 4 hours...goodnight every one

heres a ramp chart

could call it slippers

still better than crappers lol

[Guest bjaykent]

Does sound a bit classier than slappers and clippers

I'm quite surprised he's even so specific as to use the word 'Thames'

[john pike]

hi blackprince

theres more

chart porn

[john pike]

[blackprince]

hi blackprince

theres more

chart porn

GOOD NIGHT lol

[Andy H]

Looks like I might me a bit to far north for the weekends fun!

Might have to go snow chasing this weekend!

[Guest bjaykent]

I can see my birthday is now etched on your memory

[alexisj9]

this just posted by ian f on mod thread

Just a final note to say UKMO will currently cater for 1-3cm accumulations Saturday from more pronounced Thames Estuary convergence zone running SW through central Kent to Sussex. Good agreement in UK4 with UKMO-GM and EC for this. Similar story Sunday albeit with less forcing aloft so less pronounced accumulations in same general area; also eastern areas especially Sat from the first, more pronounced shortwave (currently near Greenland) that'll run around to come SW by Sat... so e.g. Lincs and E Yorks/Humber area prone to 2-3cm too. Cheers.

dare i say the streamer word here

Hope you get some kent, guess london misses out this time.

[Sussex Jules]

Lol all sorts of discussions on MAD thread about slappers clippers and Thames streamers. Paul Sherman gave a list of them all a while back wish I had saved it. I only remembered slappers because they were the ones for here

[john pike]

I can see my birthday is now etched on your memory

i remembered

the ensembles for 18z

this is how you watch these

yesterday the 26th had the temperature bang on the mean

now today it shows the 26th as 5 degrees below

thats how you guide these to see if the cold may go longer than shown on each run

i would call cold from the 21st to the 26th mow

23rd to 26th precipitation showing

also note the warm up after the 26th has gone

i love the gfs main run after the 1st of march

a warm outlier

some nice cold ones showing as well

Hope you get some kent, guess london misses out this time.

hi alexis

we will be fine here

i will update tomorrow night when new fax charts come out

[john pike]

hi blackprince

nite mate

no more now

i promise

[john pike]

No: we don't use those colloquial terms! This is a Thames Estuary convergence focused around area E of London down through SE suburbs across Kent and SW of there. By Sunday the signal moves E to focus more through tip of Kent.

heres what ian f said a few minutes ago re streamer or whatever we want to call it

i have a feeling we may see a bit more snow saturday than is expected

just do not want to commit to that just yet

[john pike]

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

one more from me then bed

ecm london ensembles

not sure warm is a word i would use with these

goodnight all

[london-snow]

Just got back from a friends in nw london it was quite clear and cold however as i approached my area near wimbledon in south west london it suddenly was covered with thick fog.

Beautiful day sunny day & cold foggy night.

Edited February 20, 2013 by london-snow

[Neilsouth]

Roger

My guess remains heavy snow in Kent with that 20-30 cm estimate still on the table. I think the depth and fetch issues will overcome any stability (from my experience with Great Lakes snow, east winds don't need to combine with much instability, just getting cold enough air over the water seems to be a good start). That should accumulate over three days by the way but Friday night and Saturday look best.

Fergusson almost ramping over on the other channel

Its not going to be a classic but areas south and east of London could get a nice covering. Lets hope it doesnt melt too quickly

Edited February 20, 2013 by Victor Meldrew

[ZONE 51]

It was frosty then the thick fog moved in, very cold and calm, cold front moving in from the east towards morning could get some sleety/snow pulses around higher ground maybe lower although not much to be concerned about! Increasing risk of snow through late week wkend, upgrades coming each day it seems although slowly and gently! other day was only light flurries expected, now it's light snow in the forecast, i think we could be looking at a situation where things crop up on the day, once we get the feed of potent cold air from the east as a stronger flow then moisture picked up and the sea surface/land temp differences would see building clouds although flat at first with lighter snow showers increasing into weekend to higher cloud allowing more space for growth of the cloud, so more convection more snow that is heavier. I expect a snow streamer to set up changing areas over the days, i won't say what day but Thursday i start with at this stage, we will just have to see what happens! Thames estuary convection likely to happen then the flow blowing these showers into Kent/Sussex and up towards London/Surrey even Hampshire by weekend.

EA included in the snow risk.

I will post my thoughts as we go through the days in this interesting and very cold developing situation!

ESS

Edited February 20, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Bluebreezer54]

My mobile app is just reporting rain/snow showers in Kent and East Sussex. Its normally fairly accurate and the radar is currently showing a thin line of showers in that region. Any reports locally ?