South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[Dangerous]

My mobile app is just reporting rain/snow showers in Kent and East Sussex. Its normally fairly accurate and the radar is currently showing a thin line of showers in that region. Any reports locally ?

Sleety blobs here at 80 metres. probably more like wet snow in higher places like hawkinge, capel le ferne or whitfield. (140-170 mts)

[Biggin]

Very fine rain here atm

[fatyido]

Balmy temp of 3.7c here this morning already and rising. So assuming its not going to be as cold as forecast, or hasnt the cold air reached us yet ?

[blackprince]

Just driven to work in London,a little bit of sleet and a lot of fog patches,lowest temp 4C

[nanu]

dull, drizzly,foggy,, Zzzzzzz

[Coast]

I only remembered slappers because they were the ones for here

That's not my experience at all!!!

Morning peeps!

Heavy drizzle falling like rain and low clouds are a complete contrast to yesterday. The temps haven't really started dropping here , but I can see that happening through today into tomorrow. I'm not sure if I want to have a look at he charts for this weekend, but I will do out of curiosity.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[Steve C]

Morning all.

The temperature was 2C when I left home, but had risen briefly to 5C, when on the A12, then back to 4C on arrival at work. As I live nearer the coast, that was quite unusual.

Maybe the cold air is just getting started then, from the east?

Edited February 20, 2013 by Steve C

[Guest bjaykent]

ECM 240 hrs chart will excite many on the Mad thread and on here this morning and ties up with JP's thoughts of a cold March, heights over Greenland with potential to open flood gates to much colder air into Europe from the North. No mild or zonal Atlantic following on from this chart for quite some time. Plenty of caution as in FI and would like to see this develop over the next couple of runs but perhaps the beginnings of another great trend from ECM, hopefully GFS will come on board in its own time as has often been the case this winter.

4c & drizzly here this morning with the cold front moving through leading to progressively cold temps and uppers pushing in from the east over the next few days, the prospect of some snow still remains in our area over the weekend. Looking forward to Coast and JP's charts and thoughts today.

And we all thought spring had arrived yesterday back to radar watching this weekend

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Edited February 20, 2013 by bjaykent

[Lauren]

What a beautiful day it was yesterday. If you didn't feel the temperature or see the bare trees, you'd be forgiven for thinking it was the height of summer.

[Steve C]

ECM 240 hrs chart will excite many on the Mad thread and on here this morning and ties up with JP's thoughts of a cold March, heights over Greenland with potential to open flood gates to much colder air into Europe from the North. No mild or zonal Atlantic following on from this chart for quite some time. Plenty of caution as in FI and would like to see this develop over the next couple of runs but perhaps the beginnings of another great trend from ECM, hopefully GFS will come on board in its own time as has often been the case this winter.

4c & drizzly here this morning with the cold front moving through leading to progressively cold temps and uppers pushing in from the east over the next few days, the prospect of some snow still remains in our area over the weekend. Looking forward to Coast and JP's charts and thoughts today.

And we all thought spring had arrived yesterday back to radar watching this weekend

Typical Spring weather I'd call it. I'm pretty sure I read a while ago that April is the month with the greatest likely variability in temperature, in the UK. Also snow being more likely at Easter than Christmas (or over the last century or so) - that one is definitely a strange stat.

[Coast]

I knew I shouldn't have looked. GFS 00z has very little now for the weekend, just a light flurry here and there but bitterly cold in the wind:

A wisp on Saturday, maybe Sunday:

Cold enough though:

NAE and NMM +48 hours currently gets us to Friday late afternoon/early evening and nothing showing on NAE:

But NMM a bit more bullish:

So still nothing set in concrete and the hi-res stuff could be a guide now until we get to satellite and radar watching.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[Steve C]

I knew I shouldn't have looked. GFS 00z has very little now for the weekend, just a light flurry here and there but bitterly cold in the wind:

A wisp on Saturday, maybe Sunday:

Cold enough though:

NAE and NMM +48 hours currently gets us to Friday late afternoon/early evening and nothing showing on NAE:

But NMM a bit more bullish:

So still nothing set in concrete and the hi-res stuff could be a guide now until we get to satellite and radar watching.

I thought the same Coast; the approaching trough of low pressure from the east seems to have flattened overnight. Like you say though, this is going right to the wire. Kent looks by far the most favoured currently.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Steve C

[Biggin]

That's not my experience at all!!!

Morning peeps!

Heavy drizzle falling like rain and low clouds are a complete contrast to yesterday. The temps haven't really started dropping here , but I can see that happening through today into tomorrow. I'm not sure if I want to have a look at he charts for this weekend, but I will do out of curiosity.

"Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

850mb temperatures of -11C to -13C just off the East coast early tomorrow - http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/20/basis00/ukuk/t850/13022103_2_2000.gif … - They are low values!"

"Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

This trough coming in from the E on Sat could pep up the risk of wintry flurries for the East - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif …

"

[Coast]

I thought the same Coast; the approaching trough of low pressure from the east seems to have flattened overnight. Like you say though, this is going right to the wire. Kent looks by far the most favoured currently.

Yep, back to the old Kent Clippers again! I'm reasonably confident at this point that the majority of our area will only see flurries at best. What isn't clear currently is what disturbances/convective elements might do to modify the situation - again though if something like that turns up, it is could be a localised thing, not right across the SE and EA.

It will be chilly especially with the wind and Wind chill could make it feel like -3 or -4°C

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[Nick F]

Low cloud and drizzle hanging over West London like a damp cloth this morning. This is the cold front.

Lower dew points (sub 0C) spreading in from the east across E Anglia now - so we could start seeing wintriness in the ppn here now.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?lang=en&map=UK

Other than streams of snow flurries across many areas Friday onwards, GFS and ECM seem to have reduced any organised heavier snowfall to Kent on Sunday - as a 500mb trough/cold pool clips the SE from the east, this may of course change to a more widespread area of the SE.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Cloudy, damp and misty here....not nice at all really - roll on spring

[Coast]

Just to show how finely balanced this weekend is, have a look at these predictions from:

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

That would give nothing to our region and rain on Sunday instead of a Kent Clipper?

[yamkin]

"Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

850mb temperatures of -11C to -13C just off the East coast early tomorrow - http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/20/basis00/ukuk/t850/13022103_2_2000.gif… - They are low values!"

"Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

This trough coming in from the E on Sat could pep up the risk of wintry flurries for the East - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif…

"

To add to the above from Matt...

Increasing risk of wintry showers from Fri through to Sun now especially across E and SE areas of England. More info on the AA site later.

[snowblues]

Maybe we will all be surprised come the weekend with snow amounts.The snow amounts have peped up bit by bit over the last few days.Our pro forecaster Ian on the mod thread has given his views,as this cold spell builds,from non snow amounts showing,some flurries and now up to 4cm.What next.Everylittle helps.

[lottiekent]

Morning, cloudy first thing but the sun has made an appearance now as the cloud breaks from the east. Currently 3.3c wind F3 easterly

[Coast]

Increasing risk of wintry showers from Fri through to Sun now especially across E and SE areas of England. More info on the AA site later.

Hmmm, I'm not an alcoholic as I don't go to any meetings.....

GFS convective charts again only out to Friday early evening but they do show the direction of flow in the boundary of the troposphere:

A bit of gusty wind around will mean you will want to dress up warm! (no skimpy dresses and stilettos on a Friday night out - especially the blokes....)

[Guest bjaykent]

The main thing for me is that we now have our cold spell into a reliable time frame, snow amounts now down to Meto/BBC nowcasting and radar watching - Hopefully The Thames Estuary will help to generate some showers. Yet another weekend of drama to come.

Have dropped the wife at station earlier and cleaned up the house, time for some sleep now as it is half term, too many 4hr nights this week already LOL .

[Kent Snow]

Slate grey and dull so far this morning. 2C and a 15mph easterly.

[Steve C]

Slate grey and dull so far this morning. 2C and a 15mph easterly.

Sounds great!

[crazysnowcatz4]

My experience of the current kind of set up is that radar is the best way to go; The GFS shows some kind of snow for my area for 2 or 3 days. However due to snow flake inflation, I don't count on anything unless it says light or above . Or in BBC terms 2 flake cloud = 1 flake cloud old money , if you are my age or above you know what I mean!.