South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[Coast]

So looking at various opinions and thoughts this morning around the forum, we could have anything from no snow through light flurries, a covering, 4/5 cm and even a 30cm forecast in the SE and EA!!

With such a wide variance of ideas about the same bits of data from the same sources, I can only conclude that we are still really in the dark regarding Friday through the weekend and what, if anything might fall out of the sky. I'm just interested to see now when data and opinion starts to become firmer and agreement is seen more widely - that may be just at the point it shows (or doesn't) on the radar....

[snow raven]

After experiencing a bit of warmth and sunshine yesterday, all I can say is roll on Spring!

[throwoff]

I am not sure the 06Z is a massive downgrade to be fair.

The Thursday night into Friday yes we seem to have lost potential but Friday from midday (so just over +48 and getting into the golden zone) has increased if anything.

12Z will be essential today, if we see agreement and again on the 00 we are on.

[username home]

So looking at various opinions and thoughts this morning around the forum, we could have anything from no snow through light flurries, a covering, 4/5 cm and even a 30cm forecast in the SE and EA!!

With such a wide variance of ideas about the same bits of data from the same sources, I can only conclude that we are still really in the dark regarding Friday through the weekend and what, if anything might fall out of the sky. I'm just interested to see now when data and opinion starts to become firmer and agreement is seen more widely - that may be just at the point it shows (or doesn't) on the radar....

I've heard that we may get 12/18 inches...

[throwoff]

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Please fasten your seatbelts.

[Coast]

I am not sure the 06Z is a massive downgrade to be fair.

I'm not either, because until it happens it has no 'grading' at all, just a better or worse forecast of future weather at the moment it's produced (depending on the scenario you are looking for).

I've heard that we may get 12/18 inches...

:lol: Should have gone to Specsavers!

[snowking]

And for any of you thames streamer fans out there:

Note - that is VERY light precipitation though - we are not talking anything more than a covering

SK

[Snowangel-MK]

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Please fasten your seatbelts.

lol - how did you know that I'm off round Milton Keynes to re-enact the Italian Job in the Mini the garage have loaned me for the day while my vehicle is in for a service.....whoo hoo.... watch out here I come !!

[throwoff]

I think we will see the best snow of the winter this weekend, having said that for us in Medway a half decent sprinkle would be enough to beat the rest of it!

[chilly milly]

Morning all! Currently grey and damp here this morning.

Temp 3.1c with a dewpoint of 0.3c

Such a contrast to yesterday which reached the dizzy heights of 9.5c

[Coast]

I really must give up GFS precip charts, run after run and too far in advance! Frankly they are so on/off in the timescale we are looking at they are no help or indication at all. The trend seems to be for short bursts of light snow flurries cropping up almost anywhere and at any time in our region.

If we want more consistent and perceptible snow, as I posted earlier, it may have to come from something not being currently shown - like a streamer. If you want to know how hit and miss they can be, read this old thread started by Paul Sherman:

[Coast]

lol - how did you know that I'm off round Milton Keynes to re-enact the Italian Job in the Mini the garage have loaned me for the day while my vehicle is in for a service.....whoo hoo.... watch out here I come !!

Go careful out there, it might be snowy and you don't want any awkward manoeuvres ....

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[starstream]

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Please fasten your seatbelts.

I used to live in rainham just down the road, not sure if my location just over the water will be lucky

[Jan_Bromley]

What a difference a day makes. Grey, low clouds and cold today. Yuk

[Methuselah]

I think we will see the best snow of the winter this weekend, having said that for us in Medway a half decent sprinkle would be enough to beat the rest of it!

You must have missed-out Big Time so far, then?

[Coast]

Rather than bore you with analysis of the whole 06z GFS run, this chart is the 'best of the best' for the weekend and as you can see, they think it's confined to bits of Sussex, Kent and Essex:

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[craigore]

So looking at various opinions and thoughts this morning around the forum, we could have anything from no snow through light flurries, a covering, 4/5 cm and even a 30cm forecast in the SE and EA!!

With such a wide variance of ideas about the same bits of data from the same sources, I can only conclude that we are still really in the dark regarding Friday through the weekend and what, if anything might fall out of the sky. I'm just interested to see now when data and opinion starts to become firmer and agreement is seen more widely - that may be just at the point it shows (or doesn't) on the radar....

Im also seeing rain forcast for kent on sunday ,whats that about?? I assumed temps and due points would be akin to the white stuff only. or am i wrong ?

[Coast]

Im also seeing rain forcast for kent on sunday ,whats that about?? I assumed temps and due points would be akin to the white stuff only. or am i wrong ?

We'll find out on Sunday!

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[legrandefromage]

Very odd ride home last night - at about 6pm it was warmish air with bits of cold as I went out into the countryside. A very nice quiet ride with the noisy A1M muted slightly by a light easterly.

This morning that same easterly is now the cold iron fist of a fenland lazy wind - the sort of wind that would rather go straight through you than go round - a bit like some of the traffic that passes me.

[throwoff]

You must have missed-out Big Time so far, then?

We really have!

It has been dreadful.

The Medway dome has been in full effect!

[Methuselah]

We really have!

It has been dreadful.

The Medway dome has been in full effect!

lol You never seen the Milton Keynes Dome, then?

[Steve C]

I really must give up GFS precip charts, run after run and too far in advance! Frankly they are so on/off in the timescale we are looking at they are no help or indication at all. The trend seems to be for short bursts of light snow flurries cropping up almost anywhere and at any time in our region.

If we want more consistent and perceptible snow, as I posted earlier, it may have to come from something not being currently shown - like a streamer. If you want to know how hit and miss they can be, read this old thread started by Paul Sherman:

http://forum.netweat...-12nd-feb-2009/

Yes, my area did very badly out of this event (or so I was told, as I was in Mauritius at the time ) and we've had better snow in every subsequent year.

[Guest bjaykent]

Hi Coast, liking your forecasts this morning it may or may not snow/rain lightly/heavily in any given location including land, sea and air including and maybe not including the south eastern region of any given country of the world, over the period of next 1,2,3,4,5 or no days. I think that about covers it. Possible alternatives to GFS forecast below:

or

Never mind we won't blame you if it doesn't snow, well not to your face anyway LOL

Have a nice day!

[Stevieray1]

We really have!

It has been dreadful.

The Medway dome has been in full effect!

It sure has! Can someone please remove it this weekend!!

It's not as bright here this morning but there are breaks in the cloud and I can still see some blue sky..... Im off to Croydon on Friday to visit friends, Bromley on Saturday to visit family and my daughter is off back to school in Northiam on Sunday. Id love snow but as we have a tour of the SE planned over the next few days, I'm hoping any surprises that pop up happen when we are at home!!

[Coast]

Never mind we won't blame you if it doesn't snow, well not to your face anyway LOL

My ears will be burning anyway, probably through the cold if not the 'behind my back' chatter :lol: Still could go either way, but expect nothing, be happy if you get something.