South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

[alexisj9]

Mostly sunny now with only a few cumulus. So much for completely overcast conditions!

If only the cumulus would grow a bit once it is cold enough for snow.

[throwoff]

Schno is coming.

[Steve C]

Midday charts from today (GFS 06Z) until Monday, showing the movement of cold air (particularly sub 528 dam) It looks like the peak cold (and snow chance?) might be on Saturday.

[CanadaAl]

Just seen the radar and germany seems to be riddled with showers, they seem to be heading west, anyone have a hunch we could be in the firing line? i know there's no mention of it on the weather forecasts but just a thought really

[CWT2012]

Stop trying to predict a streamer!

First - you can't

Second - you will curse it!

The potential for a streamer is the only thing that makes this spell exciting, the difference between a few grains blowing around in the wind or a few inches of snow, clutching at straws maybe but this weekend would be a boring spell of weather away from Kent but for streamer potential

[Sussex Jules]

Midday charts from today (GFS 06Z) until Monday, showing the movement of cold air (particularly sub 528 dam) It looks like the peak cold (and snow chance?) might be on Saturday.

Ties in with what local weather forecast was saying flurries on Friday maybe a little bit more on Saturday.

[Coast]

Midday charts from today (GFS 06Z) until Monday, showing the movement of cold air (particularly sub 528 dam) It looks like the peak cold (and snow chance?) might be on Saturday.

I saw that earlier and it looks plausible. I think you might just make a snowman on Saturday going by the latest info:

[john pike]

posted by ian f on mod thread a little while ago

Story consistent with previous updates. By Friday, Dartmoor continues to be an area singled out for a little more focused snow given ripe conditions for Channel shower banding. Flurries elsewhere in E. Saturday offers somewhat deeper convective depth but really relies on convergence to offer more meaningful snow showers, as per UK4 prognosis I posted last night. Some localised impacts possible so being watched. By Sunday we're back to skinnier depths and lighter showers; Monday more awkward given frontal/pseudo-frontal feature from E rotating W around top of continental vortex. Likely to offer a trickier forecast hybrid of wintry PPN into E Anglia and SE with potential for a leading area of snow to low levels across Midlands. However, amounts not looking too bothersome at this juncture but it's a dynamic PPN feature so perhaps a more widespread snow potential versus weekend story. Beyond that, MOGREPS-15 retains anticyclonic influence well into trend period, versus the shift to more cyclonic EC members. Latter somewhat favoured, ie to less cold SW regime eventually, but a fine balance of choice frankly and hence UKMO not yet nailing colours to either mast given low confidence.

to put this into english

one word unsure

[Jan_Bromley]

[WillinGlossop]

Local forecast said they are keeping an eye on friday night and saturday as to snow potential..... Bbc se today that was.....

[Steve C]

I saw that earlier and it looks plausible. I think you might just make a snowman on Saturday going by the latest info:

Agreed! I'm due to be going on a fairly long drive on Saturday and I'm not seeing anything to concern me too much at the moment.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

unsure

Almost what I posted earlier John!!

I'd normally be getting itchy about now with the 12z runs out shortly, but I have a feeling they may not move the story on just yet. It's kind of nice to see the professionals are struggling as well, as I thought it was mostly my own ineptitude at not seeing the signs - good or bad.

I'm still leaning towards a dusting Friday night in parts of the region, a bit more on Saturday, less on Sunday and not at all sure about Monday.

Again the idea of a disturbance (like any convergence zone or streamer) could bring more to an area around the Thames or even if I'm lucky up through the Channel to me (well Sussex and Kent I mean). John's analysis of the Fax charts will be useful here nearer the time but it still makes me think this is so knife edge now, that we won't know what is going to happen until we look at the radar or into the sky from Friday onwards.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Coast

[blackprince]

Agreed! I'm due to be going on a fairly long drive on Saturday and I'm not seeing anything to concern me too much at the moment.

So you have not seen the one about the M25 in Essex being closed due to frost at the weekend..only joking ..have a safe trip.

[fulham snow]

Off to Norfolk this Friday to collect kids and bring back to Epsom ,last thing I need is to stuck up there with the ex-misses.

[john pike]

Almost what I posted earlier John!!

I'd normally be getting itchy about now with the 12z runs out shortly, but I have a feeling they may not move the story on just yet. It's kind of nice to see the professionals are struggling as well, as I thought it was mostly my own ineptitude at not seeing the signs - good or bad.

I'm still leaning towards a dusting Friday night in parts of the region, a bit more on Saturday, less on Sunday and not at all sure about Monday.

Again the idea of a disturbance (like any convergence zone or streamer) could bring more to an area around the Thames or even if I'm lucky up through the Channel to me (well Sussex and Kent I mean). John's analysis of the Fax charts will be useful here nearer the time but it still makes me think this is so knife edge now, that we won't know what is going to happen until we look at the radar or into the sky from Friday onwards.

hi coast

i could have wrote exactly the same thing

my thoughts are the same as well

the only thing i would add would be our trusty lampposts may be needed as well

[throwoff]

I think the 12Z will be a big shift up in gear.

Very excited to see it.

[fulham snow]

When is the 12z out

[Mike Storm]

My Davis's Temps 3.3c dp -2c London City Airport is quoting 3c with -3c dp nice to be in agreement

[throwoff]

starts in about 30 mins.

[fulham snow]

starts in about 30 mins.

thank u mr gillingham

[throwoff]

12Z starting.

As usual I am sticking initially to the snow risk chart.

Nothing till +48 but then it begins -

Waiting on the +51....

[Tom Jarvis]

I would say the 12z is an upgrade with high about 50miles further north

[throwoff]

And boom, increase!

compared to 06Z

And the patern continues!

+54

Friday is now looking like an all day risk for Kent.

and the +60

Precip charts show a wider and heavier amount .

into Saturday now, she continues!

Much heavier Precip band than previously.

Im going to call this a big time upgrade, interested to see what JP thinks but I am looking at 2 things only, Kent and snow!

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013022012/gfs-0-66.png?12

THAMES STREAMER FORECAST.

ALMOST PERFECT- SUB 532 HEIGHTS.

[Sara]

South East England 90% Turning colder over the next couple of days with a high likelihood that the temperature threshold will be reached by the end of the week. No major disruption from snow is expected.

Level 3 alert