Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[johnholmes]

I am always at a loss to understand the bickering that goes on either at the first sign of winter, often in September, and towards the end of Meteorological winter, when others start to see hopes of spring?

Why?

It is a weather forum and this would stop if EVERYONE gave their view of the charts from a WEATHER angle, be it showing cold or warm.

In my view, no doubt to be disputed, the worst offenders are the cold lovers but the mild folk also must take some blame.

Surely it easy enough to be pleasant to one another.

No matter how much you want cold it must be blindingly obvious that severe and prolonged cold will NOT occur now, short sharp blasts will. Equally as the days lengthen so milder even warmer weather will become the more dominant weather type.

Is it possible for some balanced unbiased views on the models to be put in this thread folks or am I asking too much?

It is arguments such as are starting to appear which cause me to repeatedly, although I can never keep my promise, to stop posting in here and just stay in the more in depth thread.

Come on folks it is only the weather after all?

Looking at the 500mb anomaly charts over the pst few days and they are quite interesting. Not the needed total consistency model to model nor indeed with GFS especially even day to day agreement on what the upper air pattern may be 6-15 days on. However it does look from the last few days that any 'real' spring like weather is not likely in that time scale. How cold is not clear either.

Edited February 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

Irish and Northern Irish members are even more delighted. A west based -NAO can deliver not surprisingly the further North and West you live.

But the end result will always be the same a mixing out of the cold, as troughing becomes slow moving over the UK. Its essential to get the pattern further se to keep the UK on the western side of any troughing. We'll see what the GFS does here, we don't want a messy solution as some of the operationals aren't sure whether to retrogress the high or just sink it se, we want a clear trend in either direction,if its going to sink you want it to happen quickly as that high moves out of Canada, if its going to retrogress that needs to happen fast to allow pressure to fall to the east.

[Methuselah]

I am always at a loss to understand the bickering that goes on either at the first sign of winter, often in September, and towards the end of Meteorological winter, when others start to see hopes of spring?

Why?

It is a weather forum and this would stop if EVERYONE gave their view of the charts from a WEATHER angle, be it showing cold or warm.

In my view, no doubt to be disputed, the worst offenders are the cold lovers but the mild folk also must take some blame.

Surely it easy enough to be pleasant to one another.

No matter how much you want cold it must be blindingly obvious that severe and prolonged cold will NOT occur now, short sharp blasts will. Equally as the days lengthen so milder even warmer weather will become the more dominant weather type.

Is it possible for some balanced unbiased views on the models to be put in this thread folks or am I asking too much?

It is arguments such as are starting to appear which cause me to repeatedly, although I can never keep my promise, to stop posting in here and just stay in the more in depth thread.

Come on folks it is only the weather after all?

Looking at the 500mb anomaly charts over the pst few days and they are quite interesting. Not the needed total consistency model to model nor indeed with GFS especially even day to day agreement on what the upper air pattern may be 6-15 days on. However it does look from the last few days that any 'real' spring like weather is not likely in that time scale. How cold is not clear either.

Quite true, John: if wishful thinking (for whatever floats your boat) really could alter the outcome in any way at all, there might even be a point behind all the narkiness...

[nick sussex]

I think the juries still out as to what will happen after the easterly. Low heights still reluctant to leave Greenland and not enough forcing on the pattern to drive the coldest air southwards. The problem when you don't get a driver like a decent pressure rise over Greenland is that shortwaves start spawning near Iceland delaying the cold.

It doesn't look mild with that energy heading se in towards the western med but as to whether the UK can tap into the coldest source to deliver what many people on here want very much uncertain.

As ever more runs needed, it could go either way.

[chris55]

Phasing of the Atlantic energy with the trough from the north is trending away this moning with a slightly cleaner passage of the trough from the north. But as Nick says we need to see a sharper trough/Greenland risge to really force the cold south. Interesting runs though generally and the start of March certainly doesn't look boring at this stage.

ECM mean also showing the trough to the north as the more dominant feature, although southward extent of the cold is still unclear.

Edited February 21, 2013 by chris55

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Can't believe know ones commented on the 06z , the trough still needs to be 400 miles further east for straight northerly , but still a very cold run , with low thickness levels , and cold uppers , with low pressure on or near the uk spells a very wintery opening to march.

With heights really growing to the northwest been a very consistent theme now by the models

Yes stil a west based -NAO but beginning to look like a very wintery outlook indeed.

I'm sure changes will happen between now and 7 days but its really beginning to gain support of a northerly outbreak as we head into march .

[bluearmy]

the colder uppers just about keeping the upper hand in the scandi/atlantic trough race after the 00z runs for week 2. of course, once the solution flips either way, the mean will shoot up or down. some terrific NH patterns now showing in the fi output. typical late winter output and probably accentuated this season by the remnant downwelling from the SSW.

[Mair Snaw]

I am always at a loss to understand the bickering that goes on either at the first sign of winter, often in September, and towards the end of Meteorological winter, when others start to see hopes of spring?

Why?

It is a weather forum and this would stop if EVERYONE gave their view of the charts from a WEATHER angle, be it showing cold or warm.

In my view, no doubt to be disputed, the worst offenders are the cold lovers but the mild folk also must take some blame.

Surely it easy enough to be pleasant to one another.

No matter how much you want cold it must be blindingly obvious that severe and prolonged cold will NOT occur now, short sharp blasts will. Equally as the days lengthen so milder even warmer weather will become the more dominant weather type.

Is it possible for some balanced unbiased views on the models to be put in this thread folks or am I asking too much?

It is arguments such as are starting to appear which cause me to repeatedly, although I can never keep my promise, to stop posting in here and just stay in the more in depth thread.

Come on folks it is only the weather after all?

Looking at the 500mb anomaly charts over the pst few days and they are quite interesting. Not the needed total consistency model to model nor indeed with GFS especially even day to day agreement on what the upper air pattern may be 6-15 days on. However it does look from the last few days that any 'real' spring like weather is not likely in that time scale. How cold is not clear either.

Totally agree John, just rather annoying when a model run is coming out and somebody post 'winter is ended next week' no charts to support the post etc. im a lover of cold and snow in winter,showery springs, warm dry summers and wet stormy autumn. at this time the charts are showing cold then less cold and a return to cold, and nothing that looks to spring like so the post yesterday was rather annoying. as would be a post of winters here if no charts showed anything like it.

[Methuselah]

Can't believe know ones commented on the 06z , the trough still needs to be 400 miles further east for straight northerly , but still a very cold run , with low thickness levels , and cold uppers , with low pressure on or near the uk spells a very wintery opening to march.

With heights really growing to the northwest been a very consistent theme now by the models

Yes stil a west based -NAO but beginning to look like a very wintery outlook indeed.

I'm sure changes will happen between now and 7 days but its really beginning to gain support of a northerly outbreak as we head into march .

Because it's the 06Z. And, as we all should know by now, the only place for the 06Z is in the bin!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think the juries still out as to what will happen after the easterly. Low heights still reluctant to leave Greenland and not enough forcing on the pattern to drive the coldest air southwards. The problem when you don't get a driver like a decent pressure rise over Greenland is that shortwaves start spawning near Iceland delaying the cold.

It doesn't look mild with that energy heading se in towards the western med but as to whether the UK can tap into the coldest source to deliver what many people on here want very much uncertain.

As ever more runs needed, it could go either way.

Lol my post really is quite different to this one , and you are quite clearly right in what you say , so I'm really not disputing that , but my glass is half full this morning , hence the positivity by me ! I will say though that although its still in the balance , I would say the likely hood of a northerly is increasing by the run

[Frosty.]

There appears to be growing model agreement in some type of arctic outbreak during early march, the Ecm 00z and Gfs 00z-06z agree on this, the gfs 00z showed a short arctic blast with a brief reload before high pressure in the atlantic shunted the cold air away eastwards but both the ecm 00z and gfs 06z are setting up a much longer cold spell from the north with a stronger block to the northwest with a powerful greenland high and ridging south blocking the western atlantic, the trough coming down from the north/nw looks very complex at the moment and there is a lot of trough disruption which slows the southward progress of the very cold air but it's a very good trend and synopically the best looking charts of the season and still with plenty of room for improvement.

Until we get there, if we get there, we have a very anticyclonic spell with increasing amounts of sunshine, light winds and widespread frosts but the more southern parts of the uk will have an entirely different pattern for the next 4-5 days with a very cold and cutting Ely to NEly airflow with a lot of cloud and some snow flurries and also a risk of some heavier snow showers into the weekend and feeling sub zero by day with overnight temps between minus 1 and -4 celsius despite the cloudcover, much more benign further north and this calmer more settled weather will extend to the remaining areas of the uk during the course of next week.

Edited February 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[Mair Snaw]

Can't believe know ones commented on the 06z , the trough still needs to be 400 miles further east for straight northerly , but still a very cold run , with low thickness levels , and cold uppers , with low pressure on or near the uk spells a very wintery opening to march.

With heights really growing to the northwest been a very consistent theme now by the models

Yes stil a west based -NAO but beginning to look like a very wintery outlook indeed.

I'm sure changes will happen between now and 7 days but its really beginning to gain support of a northerly outbreak as we head into march .

Some very interesting charts there, And a few tweaks in our favour and it could be a very interesting start to march... a few ups and downs to come over the next week or so i feel. i think the 12z's will be interesting today.

[oldsnowywizard]

John whilst I agree with the context surely a severe prolonged cold spell now is what the UK will be experiencing and this is Now? Depends on ones definition of cold and prolonged ? Would have thought that means 3 degrees lower than average and longer than 4 days based i traditional UK weather ? Don't shoot just thought I would add that little point

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM postage stamps there look to be a cluster of solutions that look better in terms of developing a cleaner flow southwards. Of course we don't the get the upstream picture with those but certainly looking at the Europe view theres enough there to keep us interested.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

Now if you look at the De Bilt ensembles theres a wide scatter later but also a cluster which look around 5c maximums for there, in a set up that we're seeing the UK is likely to be colder than that as its further west so I think especially for Scotland/N/Ireland/N/Nw England you could make a case for maxs lower than that.

In terms of wind direction a spike towards a more northerly component but then a scatter with clustering around west/sw, this suggests that any troughing is going to have a hard time clearing se, the control run which turns much milder probably in relation to troughing being anchored much further west driving a milder s/sw flow into that region.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

I think we're going to see troughing close to the UK and really now its just whether this clears sufficiently eastwards and se'wards to at least allow those more favoured areas mentioned to tap into something more wintry.

To get a cleaner flow southwards we are going to need those low heights to relent from Greenland and move sufficiently eastwards.

Of course we could well see a switch in those ensembles if the pattern is edged further se.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The first few days of official spring would bring moderate to heavy snow to Scotland on a fresh Northerly wind.

I am sure the ski resorts would be very happy.

[bluearmy]

John whilst I agree with the context surely a severe prolonged cold spell now is what the UK will be experiencing and this is Now? Depends on ones definition of cold and prolonged ? Would have thought that means 3 degrees lower than average and longer than 4 days based i traditional UK weather ? Don't shoot just thought I would add that little point

you live in zurich and such are not allowed to comment unless you show as much empathy with our plight as nick s !! on a serious note, i assume you are bang in line of the upper trough this weekend whilst the lowest uppers pass to your north. in landlocked central europe, are you expecting to see anything notable or are you stuck in the shadow of the alps.

[nick sussex]

Lol my post really is quite different to this one , and you are quite clearly right in what you say , so I'm really not disputing that , but my glass is half full this morning , hence the positivity by me ! I will say though that although its still in the balance , I would say the likely hood of a northerly is increasing by the run

Lol! good to see that those emergency happy pills I sent you from the netweather crisis centre turned up okay!

Nice to see you a bit more upbeat about things, of course you can view things from a glass half full perspective because the operational runs have certainly improved in terms of a northerly but I'm very difficult to please as you probably gathered!

Because of the time of year I'm looking at the best possible set up to reduce the slush factor and so far its all looking a bit too slushy.

We'll see over the next few days whether we can move from slush to something a bit drier and longlasting!

[TEITS]

The output in FI is reminding me a bit of Dec 2010 when the models intially had the pattern too far W which resulted in massive arguments on this thread, im sure Nick Sussex remembers this.

A few things that stick out on the model output at the moment and I shall list them.

1. A North-South divide is quiet possible here with higher elevations in Scotland experiencing heavy snow and ice days with S England experiencing much milder temps of 7 or 8C.

2. Nocturnal snowfall. Quiet plausible to see max temps of 7C during spells of sunshine but during the overnight period a heavy snowfall followed by a quick thaw and temps back to 7C under sunshine.

3. Incredible convection across N parts, especially Scotland. We all know a very cold N,ly can bring heavy convective showers but the addition of the stronger sunshine could result in even heavier convection.

The above is really why I really love early March because you can have everything but the kitchen sink thrown in.

[stodge]

Morning all

As a very occasional contributor, I don't have time normally to peruse every nuance of every chart. I think I'm less a fan of cold or snow than a fan of extremes and interesting synoptics. When charts "look" different, they're worth looking at. I get no pleasure in "normal" charts with mild SW'lies and Icelandic LPs balancing European HPs and so on. Big anticyclones in strange orientations, LPs taking unusual trajectories - that's what I look for.

I find this morning's synoptics fascinating - an intense HP cell to the north of the British Isles and a consequent E'ly feed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

This interests me - the Azores dominated by LP opens up all kind of possibilities for unusual weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

And so the dance begins...the Azores LP holds up heights in the mid-Atlantic which ridge north to Greenland and force the next storm off the Eastern Seaboard north to Labrador and up the west coast of Greenland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

The outcome...the LP to the west of Greenaldn prevents the regression of the Greenland HP which means no west-based negative NAO. Heights hold up in mid-Atlantic and fans of Arctic outbreaks have something to get interested in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Yes, Yes, it won't happen but that's where you finish up

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png

And it's not warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM on similar lines but subtly different. The LP systems swinging away far to the south but I'm not convinced.

For now I've got:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3617.png

Maximum Temperature in lowland East London tomorrow at 2c - quite a way off the "normal" of 8-9c.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

Back to normal but this should give the February CET another beating at the end of what has (for my part of the world) been a cold month overall.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Lol! good to see that those emergency happy pills I sent you from the netweather crisis centre turned up okay!

Nice to see you a bit more upbeat about things, of course you can view things from a glass half full perspective because the operational runs have certainly improved in terms of a northerly but I'm very difficult to please as you probably gathered!

Because of the time of year I'm looking at the best possible set up to reduce the slush factor and so far its all looking a bit too slushy.

We'll see over the next few days whether we can move from slush to something a bit drier and longlasting!

I fear that this time of year we would need to time travel back to Jan to see anything long lasting and non slushy .

or some absolutely extreme charts come to fruition.

[nick sussex]

I fear that this time of year we would need to time travel back to Jan to see anything long lasting and non slushy .

or some absolutely extreme charts come to fruition.

Yes its a shame the current set up wasn't being shown then because those uppers moving in from the east would be brutal! Of course to get something non slushy in March is very difficult but its happened in the past especially early in the month.

For that reason whilst theres some very cold air to the north lets hope the models find a way of delivering that to the UK. Of course we can't do much about that increase in solar energy but certainly if the UK could somehow tap something close to sub -10 uppers with such unstable Arctic based air there could be some real fireworks.

[johnholmes]

John whilst I agree with the context surely a severe prolonged cold spell now is what the UK will be experiencing and this is Now? Depends on ones definition of cold and prolonged ? Would have thought that means 3 degrees lower than average and longer than 4 days based i traditional UK weather ? Don't shoot just thought I would add that little point

quite true:- I was thinking more of beyond the immediate time scale, as we progress on and the days lengthen and the inevitable, it seems, griping that occurs as my original post explains.

And of course the comments much like my golf,

if only,

this or that, if only this or that moved x100 miles east or west, if only the deep cold moved south

etc etc?

Edited February 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[bradymk]

Because of the time of year I'm looking at the best possible set up to reduce the slush factor and so far its all looking a bit too slushy.

Depressingly Nick, slush is better than anything I have seen all winter here so i will take it The models have certainly toned down any milder weather post the easterly and the potential for a northerly increases. Ideally like you say we need this pattern slightly more south eastwards but even at the moment, Scotland, NI, N England still look in a much better position as expected with this setup. For me, I would like to see the pattern further south eastwards as troughing over the southern UK is not the ideal start to spring, so a good unstable northerly or some spring sunshine, not too much to ask

[stodge]

Just some thoughts on the "late snow" issue:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080322.gif

This was Easter Sunday 2008 and it dropped two inches of snow on lowland East London. Yes, it didn't last but even the January 20th fall this year (the second biggest since 2005, eclipsed only by 1 Feb 2009) was gone within 72 hours in my location

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780317.gif

Another classic March snowfall - the Cheltenham Gold Cup was postponed that day following six inches of snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080407.gif

Here's one from April in the classic cold spring of 2008 - this brought a transient snowfall to London - inch or so in East London.

The synoptics are all similar - N or NE'ly winds from an LP in the southern North Sea drawing down air from Scandinavia. A straight N'ly has too much modification for the south of England.

I also remember an April snowfall in the early 1970s from my childhood but I'm not certain when.

[oldsnowywizard]

you live in zurich and such are not allowed to comment unless you show as much empathy with our plight as nick s !! on a serious note, i assume you are bang in line of the upper trough this weekend whilst the lowest uppers pass to your north. in landlocked central europe, are you expecting to see anything notable or are you stuck in the shadow of the alps.

Lol I left the uk to find the snow in 2010 and look

What happened!? We aren't expecting too much as the precip always dries up before it hits us... Has been cold though for the last 3 weeks here and tbh want to see some warmth... However I always want to see snow hit the UK after the 90s just to prove that It can and will snow there :-)