South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[Guest bjaykent]

Nice ecm run this morning, cold throughout the run with -8 uppers reappearing in FI and still some ppn showing from Channel Low along South coast into Sussex & Kent, will have to see whether this turns out to be good or bad for my location. Radar watch later, would like some of those showers showing above the front peppering East Coast.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/?type=rain-snow-sleet

[yamkin]

Warnings in place for the region: London & South East England

Issued on Sun 10 Mar @ 11:21 hrs UTC (Courtesy Of The MetO)

[Mr_Pessimistic]

I'm expecting norfolk & suffolk to be in the ususl dry zone between the front and the shower activity, just like 2010 and every other year.. bbc not going for much conective activity at all.

[kold weather]

SK

Yep, as you say the Thames is going to totally depend on that front.

The worst case is that the front touches the coast and gives some light/moderate snow and the cloud deck prevents the Thames Sstreamer setting up, meaning most end up with snizzly stuff and not much in the way of decent snow away from the far south.

[Snowangel-MK]

.....and a special thank you to MKSA who is patiently putting up with us all today

Haha yeah. That tough place to be series is back on BBC2 tonight. MKSA is interviewed in

The toughest place to be a babysitter. If things go wrong here toys will be thrown everywhere in here

[BarnetBlizzard]

Look at the showers hitting scotland, how comes we can't get snow showers that affect such a wide area and travel far inland? never seems to happen down here its always some kind of streamer.

[VillagePlank]

T=2.4^oC

T_d=1.2^oC

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So if you're in Epsom like me, does this mean I'm on the border of the low coming high enough but also possibly in line for a Thames streamer - and does that mean double whammy?!x

My thinking too HAHAH!!!

[wintrywend]

Snowing getting heavier!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'lll bank the NMM

This is a peach!

[Southender]

Got some sleety/snow falling in Southend at the mo.

Think we will miss out on the heavier stuff here later through Mon. Need a northwards shift.

[yamkin]

Snow battle stations at the ready here in Croydon

Gritters will be deployed to pre-treat A & B routes from 14:00 hrs today and then will move into continuous operations

MetO have just updated Croydon Council with the following: From early evening though around 1700hrs, snow showers will start to feed in from the North Sea, blown on by a strengthening north-easterly wind. It is likely that these will form into bands, meaning that the frequency of showers and the subsequent accumulations will vary from place to place but in the main 2-5cm’s at low level, but there is the risk of significant accumulations particularly on windward slopes and high ground of up to 8cms

[Met4Cast]

Yep, as you say the Thames is going to totally depend on that front.

The worst case is that the front touches the coast and gives some light/moderate snow and the cloud deck prevents the Thames Sstreamer setting up, meaning most end up with snizzly stuff and not much in the way of decent snow away from the far south.

Given our luck so far this winter, I'd say that's probably the most likely outcome!

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=150&run=6&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0

cold

high snow risk

update fax later

[Vesuvius]

Snowing in Rayleigh. Not getting the sledge out mind !

[nick sussex]

Its really a case of whats good for one part of the region being not so good for another.

So what might be great for the south coast would entail the high cloud moderating any convection for London, snow upto London with the frontal zone likely knocks out areas further north.

I don't think we're going to have an outcome that pleases everyone unless theres a cloud clearance window so good convection for areas away from the south coast including London, then frontal snow for the far south.

For this reason even at this late stage theres still a lot of uncertainty.

[JennyJane1]

random weirdness here, everywhere is wet, no white at all, suddenly a car pulls up with a good three inches of snow piled on its roof and bonnet

answers on a postcard

[yamkin]

Its really a case of whats good for one part of the region being not so good for another.

So what might be great for the south coast would entail the high cloud moderating any convection for London, snow upto London with the frontal zone likely knocks out areas further north.

I don't think we're going to have an outcome that pleases everyone unless theres a cloud clearance window so good convection for areas away from the south coast including London, then frontal snow for the far south.

For this reason even at this late stage theres still a lot of uncertainty.

Hi Nick, have a look at my previous post. MetO boff's seem to be confident with the snow potential

[Stevieray1]

A couple of heavy snow symbols popping up on the met office app now starting at 9 tonight until 3 am and light snow either side of them.... They do have a habit of disappearing though!!

[Snowman.]

Got some sleety/snow falling in Southend at the mo.

Think we will miss out on the heavier stuff here later through Mon. Need a northwards shift.

I reckon we could get a few CM as we could get a streamer setup over us.

Plus plenty showers around and were slowly getting a northward shift.

[london-snow]

Hmmmmmm to have the near repeat of a 09 thames streamer as kold says all the ingredients are there.

That gave me a foot of snow that event.

Or

A channel low which can give a lot of snow with high winds however needs to make up its mind whether to go north or south ( Latter Hopefully ).

I'm not to sure i just hope that either one happens and gives us a memorable march that will be talked about for years to come.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick, have a look at my previous post. MetO boff's seem to be confident with the snow potential

Well that's good to see, I do hope this delivers for everyone, its really a rare set up to have that depth of cold this late in the season.

[pinball wizard]

Its really a case of whats good for one part of the region being not so good for another.

So what might be great for the south coast would entail the high cloud moderating any convection for London, snow upto London with the frontal zone likely knocks out areas further north.

I don't think we're going to have an outcome that pleases everyone unless theres a cloud clearance window so good convection for areas away from the south coast including London, then frontal snow for the far south.

For this reason even at this late stage theres still a lot of uncertainty.

Much like summer I guess when the remnants of an MCS often inhibits convective home grown storms?

[Snowman.]

http://gyazo.com/88afcc76e1a0483ee8d4ac0d2d6530d2

Looks good!

[kold weather]

Its really a case of whats good for one part of the region being not so good for another.

So what might be great for the south coast would entail the high cloud moderating any convection for London, snow upto London with the frontal zone likely knocks out areas further north.

I don't think we're going to have an outcome that pleases everyone unless theres a cloud clearance window so good convection for areas away from the south coast including London, then frontal snow for the far south.

For this reason even at this late stage theres still a lot of uncertainty.

Hmmm I think there is a worst case here tohugh Nick, there won't be nearly as many showerrs to the north of the THames, simply due to obvious factors (perfect wind alingment, etc) so we don't want the front to just reach the coast and as you say knock out the possible impressive convection that is possible from any streamer action but its not close enough to bring the precip core ashore.

Really anything can happen, all I'll say is don't under-estimate the chances of a streamer, if even some of the lower resolution models are showing something, that is sayimng something...