South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[Captain Shortwave]

And a special thank you to MKSA who is patiently putting up with us all today

Haha yeah. That tough place to be series is back on BBC2 tonight. MKSA is interviewed in

The toughest place to be a babysitter. If things go wrong here toys will be thrown everywhere in here

Edited March 10, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer of 76]

Haha yeah. That tough place to be series is back on BBC2 tonight. MKSA is interviewed in

The toughest place to be a babysitter. If things go wrong here toys will be thrown everywhere in here

and the series is sponsored by TOYS R US

[Stuie]

Decent shower here! large flakes

[Stuie]

Dew point 1.2 as well!

Edited March 10, 2013 by StuieW

[mulzy]

After my rather downcast post yesterday, I'm feeling more optimistic today - the 6z models seems to have shifted that low further north. Will London be hit? Huge impact call to be made by the MO regarding the capital.

I could be wrong but the front remaining to the north-east of London could help in the northward movement of the low to the south?

Edited March 10, 2013 by mulzy

[Ruby000]

Horizontal snow has just arrived!

[Chris101]

Showers getting into The Wash and N/W Norfolk now, as the day goes on they should get further South around the EA coast, and as wind strengthens push further inland.

[msx999]

having not even looked at weather forecasts for a month, this has come on out of the blue (for me at least) what are we expecting?

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning and happy Mother's Day to the other Mummies on netweather

I hope you have all been lucky enough to feel as special today as I have...so far I've been showered with gifts, love and snowflakes ..... there is still a roast lamb lunch being cooked for me and a home cinema afternoon to look forward to, Sunday's don't get better than this

[VillagePlank]

As far as I understand it, T_d doesn't have to be zero or below for snow to fall - it has to be at 0^oC for snow to form which is at the cloud base. Depending on local environmental factors, as long as it forms it can fall to the surface even up to 8^oC - ie if it is particularly dry where you are, the snow will evaporate releasing heat, and thus continue to keep the snow cold. If it falls faster than the evaporation rate, then it will make it to the ground.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Met4Cast]

Waheyy its raining!! How exciting it's not like we've had enough of that in the last few days..

[kold weather]

Hmm the shift north is good for Kent, Sussex and parts of Surrey, bad for areas further north as the front would reduce the risk of a Thames Streamer as the air ahead of the front will be that bit more stable due to the cloud cdeck ahead of it. Of course the forcing maybe enough in this case that this is overruled.

We still need a good 50-75 miles shift north for most of the area to get interested in this.

Good looking 06z runs for southern counties, especially close to the coast.

NO marginality at all...snow settling right to the beaches...

[Snowman.]

Temperature 2.1°C

Dewpoint 1.1°C

[weathergeek]

So if you're in Epsom like me, does this mean I'm on the border of the low coming high enough but also possibly in line for a Thames streamer - and does that mean double whammy?!x

[mulzy]

The 6z ensembles continue the drift northwards - good support for the operational with regards northward extend of the snow with many ensembles taking it further north still covering more of the region. The drama continues, but it has to be resolved soon - probably by good old-fashioned radar watching and looking out of the window!

Cherry picking caveats apply here but many will be happy with this I guess.

Edited March 10, 2013 by mulzy

[lottiekent]

After a high of 4.4c at 10am the temperature is falling away again - down to 3.5c now with a DP of 1.1c

[Charltonkerry]

Temp 2.8c and dew point 0.9 both fallen recently.

Charlton won yesterday, some decent football and rugby on this afternoon, wine chilling nicely in the fridge, got one of the grand kids coming round this afternoon so busy moving everything above finger height, and two of own kids coming round as well, wife is busy cooking the Sunday roast, snow in the offing, oh what a wonderful day.

Happy Mother's Day to all you mums out there, hope you all have a great relaxing day and get spoilt.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex & Medway

Outbreaks of snow are expected, starting over the high ground of southwest England during Sunday, and affecting southern England more widely during Monday. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel and cause lying snow to drift. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm for parts of southwest England.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at:

1047 on Sun 10 Mar 2013

Valid from:

1900 on Sun 10 Mar 2013

Valid to:

2355 on Mon 11 Mar 2013

A low pressure system moving up from the Atlantic will come up against the influx of cold air from the north, bringing persistent sleet and snow. At the same time winds will increase, with gusts of 50-60 MPH on coasts and hills. There remains uncertainty about how far north the snow will spread, along with the extent of snow showers in the east.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=807DE0A6-D26C-646D-2BFA-49C73F3670AD_5_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1362873600

[Met4Cast]

I'lll bank the NMM

[Hammer]

Possibly Tuesday morning better for Northern parts of the region. With Monday & Tuesday seemingly good for more Southern areas?

[rubble79]

Just popping on from Australia to say...

THIS IS NOT FAIR! I go away for a few months and look what happens. It just confirms what I've always known. snow hates me.

Got my fingers crossed for you guys though!

[West Sussex Kate]

Morning all! looking forward to the snow.

[snowking]

The showers over the next 48 hours focussing particularly on the estuaries looking at the high resolution prognosis - Fife, Tyne, Humber, The Wash, Thames

This looks likely to be the main focus of showers (Thames dependant on the proximity of the frontal zone to the South), but scattered showers likely in between these areas too - just take a look at the convection taking place across the NE at the moment!

The high resolution models depicting this well at present - though I feel they may still be underplaying the overall convective potential:

Plenty of showery activity showing up for this evening:

Then a Thames streamer formation showing up quite nicely:

SK

Edit: Whilst we all watch tonight/tomorrow, its snowing very heavily here at present, though a touch too warm to settle. Woke up to about a 1-2cm covering which then has melted through the morning, but it has been snowing since about 4am here.

Edited March 10, 2013 by snowking

[kold weather]

Ensembles still abit unsure, there are some that do take it well into East Anglia, others that barely get it half way across the channel.

I think even if the front doesn't make it, there is a very good chance of a strong streamer setting up down the Thames, I'd dare say that conditions aloft are nearly as good as they were in Feb 09 (SSt's are a little lower this time), with the caveat of where that frontal system ends up will determine much with regards to just how much instablity we could get.

IF it ends up further south, then the radar for the Thames will look alot like E.Scotland radar does right now...the closer, the weaker any streamer will likely become, but the greater the chance of frontal snow. So its something of a balance.

[Snowman.]

I'lll bank the NMM

I will skip that chart please!

Turns out I could be a sort of dead zone and don't even see a snowflake fall.

The showers over the next 48 hours focussing particularly on the estuaries looking at the high resolution prognosis - Fife, Tyne, Humber, The Wash, Thames

This looks likely to be the main focus of showers (Thames dependant on the proximity of the frontal zone to the South), but scattered showers likely in between these areas too - just take a look at the convection taking place across the NE at the moment!

The high resolution models depicting this well at present - though I feel they may still be underplaying the overall convective potential:

Plenty of showery activity showing up for this evening:

Then a Thames streamer formation showing up quite nicely:

SK

Now I will take that!