South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[SMU]

Remember people the cold air & Uppers arent due till later PM-

This frontal zone is still mild in uppers terms -

midnight is the time to aim for- by then DPs around -2/-3 & surface at freezing-

S

[VillagePlank]

GFS 6z looks like a much more realistic prospect.

Yesterday showed too much distance between the faster polar jet streams, and the centre of the channel low. The presumption - as is almost always the case - was that the low was modelled too far North. Of course, there was another possibility - that the PFJ was modelled too far south. GFS 6z appears to resolve this,

which, of course, brings in the precipitation associated with the low pressure.

Very good chance of a long train of showers into the Wash late tonight, with sea surface instablity almost out to Denmark,

Prospects of a Thames Streamer are there. Instability throughout the Thames Estuary (but not really into the North Sea) This implies that a strong E flow will push unstable air into North Downs and force air up creating showers, so anywhere SE of the Thames Estuary looks good, say, for about a 50 mile stretch,

Much more hope this morning, but as always, this is only one run. More to come, of course. To summarise, showers tonight, leading to low pressure associated snow tomorrow. I haven't bothered looking at the temperature related charts as these have been nailed on for days, now.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[GoonerGregg77]

A rare snow-storm zipping thru English Channel tomorrow. Jersey and Guernsey getting a pasting. South England only "brushed

Latest tweet from Ian Fergusson

Bloody shame that. Gutted.....

[80sWeather]

Remember people the cold air & Uppers arent due till later PM-

This frontal zone is still mild in uppers terms -

midnight is the time to aim for- by then DPs around -2/-3 & surface at freezing-

S

I think there will be a few suprises in the morning with some parts doing well.

[Sara]

Should I be getting excited ? :-)

[fluid dynamic]

Congratulations Steve.

Here's to the the next 10,000 posts

hear

hear

Steve writes great posts that many of us on here learn from.

Edited March 10, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[Vesuvius]

Well done Steve. Looking forward to the next 10,000.

Snow, such as it was, has all but stopped here

[Methuselah]

An 'awkward mix' so far: rain, sleet, graupel and snow - yuck!

Congrats on the ten millionth post, Steve!

[Guest bjaykent]

Should I be getting excited ? :-)

About What? it being Mother's Day? being on 99 posts? or being snowed on? - Probably should be excited by all three!

[VillagePlank]

That surface instability feature right on top of the Thames Estuary is there for ages ...

and this ties in nicely with the UK MetO warning for Tuesday. However, note that it starts at about 15z, this afternoon. Main factor - assuming that this GFS 6z is good is wind direction. Best direction for North Downs (ie IMBY) is Tuesday morning, again tieing in with the MetO Warning,

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Tamara]

Should I be getting excited ? :-)

Me too Sara!

[snowrye]

Will winter go out with an almighty bang,fingers crossed for an epic weather event

[LJS22]

About What? it being Mother's Day? being on 99 posts? or being snowed on? - Probably should be excited by all three!

Whats exciting about being snowed in? Some of us have to work to pay bills thanks

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all. A little bit sleety here and of course very grey skies. Hoping for snow later in the day

[Guest bjaykent]

Whats exciting about being snowed in? Some of us have to work to pay bills thanks

Did actually say snowed on! bit of snow is not the end of the world!

[LJS22]

Did actually say snowed on! bit of snow is not the end of the world!

Sorry. Misread. lol

[tonbridgemole]

Hoping that the channel low tomorrow moves just a little more north ...then it will be game on......

[Sara]

Oh I'm on 99 post didn't realise. I'm excited I've been spoilt and to add to all that I'm going to get snowed on yay :-)

[SLEETY]

Tomasz Schafernaker â€@Schafernaker

@fergieweather @carlharlott latest computer model shifts snow slightly north. Could be further north still in reality. watching this space.

Edited March 10, 2013 by SLEETY

[Chris101]

Whats exciting about being snowed in? Some of us have to work to pay bills thanks

You'll get plenty of overtime if you become a snow plough driver

[Buckster76]

I guess mid-Essex is too far south for last nights excitement

and too far north of the Thames, and too far south of EA - for tonight's excitement ?

you win some and loose some I guess

[fluid dynamic]

Tomasz Schafernaker â€@Schafernaker

@fergieweather @carlharlott latest computer model shifts snow slightly north. Could be further north still in reality. watching this space.

crumbs

[Jan_Bromley]

By the way. Happy mothers day to all us wonderful mummies

And a special thank you to MKSA who is patiently putting up with us all today

[Mr.Plow]

It will be Interesting to see what convection occurs.

Wind just north of east, high cloud tops, massive difference in temp as air comes over warm sea.......

I want to see some beefy snow showers out of this!

[VillagePlank]

Change to much colder airmass complete by 18z this evening,

By that time - indeed, well before - anything that falls out of the sky will fall as snow. Note the lapse rates increase towards the end of the period.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm